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Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis
April 19, 2016
2 0 1 6 – M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y
PAGE 3
GRE AT E R I NT E RE S T I N T H I S Y E A R’ S P RE S I DE NT I A L CA MPA I GN T HA N P RE V I OUS Y E A RS
45%
60%
78%
66%
85%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
% registered voters who say they have given ‘quite a lot’ of thought to the coming presidential elections
Source: Pew Research, March 17-27, 2016
PAGE 4
L OS S OF FA I T H I N P RI MA RY S Y S T E M A ND P UB L I C ’ S P OL I T I CA L W I S DOM
59%
31% 33%
40% 42% 43%
30%35%
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
% voters who say that so far, primaries have been a good way of determining best-
qualified nominees
Source: Pew Research, March 17-27, 2016
69%
58%
32%
59%
61%
35%
1997 2007 2016
% voters who have a great deal or good deal of confidence in the political wisdom of American
public…
Democrats Republicans
PAGE 5
T OO MUCH NE W S COV E RA GE ON T RUMP, NOT E NOUGH ON K A S I CH
7%
14%
16%
41%
75%
29%
53%
57%
48%
19%
60%
29%
23%
8%
3%
Kasich
Sanders
Cruz
Clinton
Trump
% registered voters saying news organizations have given ____ of coverage to each…
Too muchAbout rightNot enough
Source: Pew Research, March 17-27, 2016
2 0 1 6 – E L E C T I O N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N C Y :R E P U B L I C A N N O M I N A T I O N
PAGE 7
W I NNE RS OF E A CH S TAT E P RI MA RY / CA UC US S O FA R
Donald Trump (20)
Ted Cruz(11)
Marco Rubio(1)Also won DC & Puerto Rico
John Kasich(1)
PAGE 8
T RUMP I S W I NNI NG T HE DE L E GAT E RA CE S O FA R
Current Delegate Count
2,472 Delegates to the Convention168 RNC Members/Automatic Delegates (6.8%)
1,237 Needed to Win
744
559
144
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Source: Associated Press
More than one in 10 delegates will go to the convention in Cleveland either unpledged or pledged to a defunct campaign.
PAGE 9
T RUMP HA S L E D I N NAT I ONA L P OL L I NG S I NCE S E P T E MB E RCruz and Kasich See Uptick as Other Candidates Have Dropped Out
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-March, 2016
2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3%7%
20% 18%6% 5% 6% 6% 8%
13%18% 17%
32%28%
5%
15%
31%28% 28%
34%39%
43% 45% 44%
June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April
2016 Republican Primary PreferenceAmong Republican and Republican leaning voters
Kasich Cruz Trump
PAGE 10
NE W Y ORK – W HAT ’ S AT S TA K E ?
Source: Huffington Post
New York Primary Information
When? Tuesday,April 19th
Number of Delegates 95
Voter Eligibility Closed Primary
Delegate Selection
Proportional (Winner take most)
Polls are giving Trump 54% of the support in the New York primary.
5%
20% 22%14%
14%
19%
34%
48%
54%
Feb. March April
2016 New York Republican Primary Preference
Among New York Republican and Republican leaning voters
Kasich Cruz Trump
2 0 1 6 – E L E C T I O N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N C Y :D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N
PAGE 12
W I NNE RS OF E A CH S TAT E P RI MA RY / CA UC US S O FA R
Bernie Sanders(15)
Hillary Clinton(19)
PAGE 13
CL I NT ON HA S S T RONG L E A D W I T H DE L GAT E S
Source NY Times
1289
1045
469
31
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Clinton
Sanders
DelegatesSuperdelegates
1,758
1,076
4,763 Delegates to the Convention4,051 Pledged delegates
712 Superdelegates
2,382 Needed to Win (50% of total)
Current Delegate Count
PAGE 14
A LT HOUGH S A NDE RS HA S NA RROW E D T HE L E A D I N NAT I ONA L P OL L S , P RE DI CT I ON MA RK E T S S T I L L FAV OR CL I NT ON
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-March, 2016
12%17% 18%
24% 25%30% 31% 34%
39% 42% 46%
60% 58%54%
47% 45%
55% 56% 55%51% 51% 48%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April
2016 Democratic Primary PreferenceAmong Democrats and Democratic leaning voters
Sanders Clinton
Source: PredictWise
92%
8%
Clinton Sanders
Chances of becoming the Democratic presidential nominee
PAGE 15
NE W Y ORK – W HAT ’ S AT S TA K E ?
Source: The New York Times
New Hampshire Primary Information
When? Tuesday, April 19th
Number of Delegates 291
Voter Eligibility Closed Primary
Delegate Selection Proportional
55% 54%55%
33%38%
42%
Feb. March April
2016 New York Democratic Primary Preference
Among New York Democratic and Democratic leaning voters
Clinton Sanders
Clinton leads Sanders 55% to 42% in the latest
polling average.
W H A T ’ S N E X T ?
PAGE 17
W HAT ’ S AT S TA K E – L AT E A P RI L
Source : New York Times and The Green Papers
Voter Eligibility DemocraticDelegate Counts
(Allocation)
RepublicanDelegate Counts
(Allocation)Pennsylvania Closed 210
(Proportional)71
(Winner-take-all)Maryland Closed 118
(Proportional)38
(Winner-take-all)Rhode Island Modified 33
(Proportional)19
(Proportional)Connecticut Closed 71
(Proportional)28
(Winner-take-most)
Delaware Closed 31(Proportional)
16(Winner-take-all)
April 26th Primary DetailsClinton Sanders
Pennsylvania 52.1% 35.8%
Maryland 60.3% 36.2%
Trump Cruz Kasich
Penn-sylvania
44.3% 26.7% 25.3%
Maryland 41.0% 25.5% 27.0%
April 26th Polling Averages
PAGE 18
W HAT ’ S ON TA P I N MAY ( P RI MA RI E S / CA UC US E S )
Primaries/Caucuses in May
Date Republican Democrat
May 3 IN IN
May 10 NE, WV WV
May 17 OR KY, OR
May 24 WA
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