Public Opinion Landscape: Brexit

International Affairs: BrexitPublic Opinion LandscapeJUNE 2016

PAGE 2

TA B L E O F C O N T ENTSSlide

American Views Toward Europe and the EU 3

European Views Toward the U.S. and the EU 8

American & European Views 12

Brexit 17

A m e r i c a n V i e w s T o w a r d E u r o p e a n d t h e E U

Source: Gallup Country Ratings, February 3-7, 2016 PAGE 4

C O U N TRI ES A M E R IC ANS H AV E A FAV O RAB LE O P I N IO N O F

53%

54%

59%

71%

73%

75%

82%

85%

87%

90%

93%

39%

40%

38%

24%

18%

18%

12%

10%

8%

4%

7%

Egypt

Cuba

Mexico

Israel

Brazil

India

Japan

Germany

France

Great Britain

Canada

Favorable Unfavorable

Source: Gallup Country Ratings, February 3-7, 2016 PAGE 5

C O U N TRI ES A M E R IC ANS H AV E A U N FAVOR ABLE O P I NI ON O F

8%

12%

14%

15%

15%

19%

21%

30%

37%

44%

86%

80%

79%

79%

78%

68%

70%

65%

55%

52%

North Korea

Syria

Iran

Iraq

Afganistan

Palestinian Authority

Pakistan

Russia

Saudi Arabia

China

Favorable Unfavorable

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A M E R IC AN V I E W S O F T H E E U R O P EAN U N I O N M O R E P O S IT IVE T H A N N E G AT IVE

53%

39%

47%

56% 57% 55%50% 50%

58%53%

14%

26%22% 23%

20% 22% 21%26% 26% 27%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

% saying they have a _______ view of the EU…

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, April 4-24, 2016

Unfavorable

Favorable

PAGE 7

A M E R IC ANS V I E W E U R OP EAN T I E S A S M O R E I M P O RTANT T H A N A S I A N T I E S

50% 49%44%

37%

50% 52%

31% 31%34%

47%

35%32%

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, April 4-24, 2016

% saying ties to the nations of ________ are most important to the U.S….

Asia

Europe

E u r o p e a n V i e w s T o w a r d t h e U . S . a n d t h e E U

PAGE 9

H O W E U R O PE ANS S E E T H E U . S . , O T H ER P O T ENT IAL T H R EAT S

23%

26%

28%

31%

33%

34%

34%

34%

39%

71%

Hungary

Greece

UK

Germany

Netherlands

Sweden

France

Italy

Spain

Poland

% saying each is a major threat to their country

Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey

Tensions with Russia

23%

25%

31%

28%

21%

18%

43%

47%

56%

47%

23%

43%

24%

25%

19%

12%

28%

21%

42%

25%

China’s emergence as a world power

U.S. power and influence

PAGE 10

M O S T E U R OPE ANS S E E U . S . A S M O R E I M P O RTANT T H A N A S I A

41%

43%

23%

25%

30%

38%

34%

31%

19%

13%

43%

49%

50%

51%

53%

56%

56%

57%

60%

60%

Germany

Sweden

Hungary

Greece

UK

France

Netherlands

Spain

Italy

Poland


Which area do you think is more important to Europe?

Asia U.S.

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E U FAV O RAB ILI TY VA R I ES W I D E LY I N E U R O P E

27%

38%

44%

47%

50%

51%

54%

58%

61%

72%

71%

61%

48%

49%

48%

46%

44%

39%

37%

22%

Greece

France

UK

Spain

Germany

Netherlands

Sweden

Italy

Hungary

Poland

Favorable UnfavorableViews of EU?


A m e r i c a n & E u r o p e a n V i e w s

PAGE 13

A M E R IC ANS A N D E U R O PE ANS A G R EE I S I S I S T O P T H R EAT

34%

30%

66%

49%

60%

54%

76%

42%

50%

53%

55%

67%

72%

80%

Tensions with Russia

China's emergence as a world power

Global climate change

Large number of refugees leaving Iraq/Syria

Global economic instability

Cyberattacks from other countries

ISIS

% saying each is a major threat to their country

U.S.Europe median

Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. U.S. survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.

PAGE 14

A M E R IC AN A N D E U R O PEA N V I E W S O N G L O B A L E N G A GEM ENT

Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey, U.S. Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016

40%

40%

45%

51%

52%

60%

65%

67%

77%

83%

Germany

Spain

Sweden

Netherlands

UK

France

Poland

Italy

Hungary

Greece

% who say…

Country should deal with its own problems

11%

50%

28%

30%

40%

46%

28%

52%

33%

65%

24%

39%

25%

24%

29%

45%

27%

44%

34%

57%

Country is less importantthat it was 10 years ago

Global economic engagement is a bad thing

57%U.S. 46% 49%

PAGE 15

A M E R IC ANS, M A N Y E U R OP EAN S WA N T T O F O C U S O N O W N C O U N TRY’ S P R O B LEM S

40%

40%

45%

51%

52%

60%

65%

67%

77%

83%

55%

53%

51%

43%

43%

36%

21%

22%

18%

12%

Spain

Germany

Sweden

Netherlands

UK

France

Poland

Italy

Hungary

Greece

Our country should…

Deal with its own problems and let other countries deal with their own problems

Help other countries deal with their problems

57% 37%U.S.


PAGE 16

I N G E N E RA L, A M E R IC ANS M O R E N E G ATI VE T O WAR D G L O BA L E C O N OMI C E N G A GEME NT

57%

44%

27%

45%

39%

34%

29%

24%

25%

24%

35%

44%

48%

51%

56%

56%

64%

70%

71%

72%

Greece

Italy

Poland

France

Spain

Hungary

UK

Germany

Sweden

Netherlands

Global economic engagement is a _____

Bad thing because it lowers wages and costs jobs

Good thing because it creates new markets, growth

49% 44%U.S.


B R E X I T

Source: Financial Times UK’s EU referendum Brexit poll tracker. Updated June 22th PAGE 18

S U P P ORT F O R B R E X IT G R O W S A S W E N E A R V O T E I N U K

40%44% 42%

47% 48% 49%45% 47% 45% 44% 44%

47%44% 43% 43% 43% 44%

44%38% 39% 38% 36% 35% 33%37% 39% 40% 40% 41% 40% 41% 40% 40% 41% 42%

45%

Leave

Remain Remain % Leave % Undecided % Date Pollster

45 44 11 20-Jun-16 Survation

53 46 2 19-Jun-16 ORB

42 44 13 19-Jun-16 YouGov

45 42 13 18-Jun-16 Survation

44 44 12 17-Jun-16 Opinium

42 44 14 17-Jun-16 YouGov

44 43 13 16-Jun-16 YouGov

LATEST POLLS

Source: Financial Times UK’s EU referendum Brexit poll tracker. Updated June 22th PAGE 19

V O L ATI LIT Y I N R E C E NT P O L L I NG

42%

44%38%

48% 48%52%

41%

47% 48%

45% 43% 43%

48% 45%

40%

46%41%

35%41% 42%

43%

44% 44%

55%

47%44%

45% 44%

5/3 5/8 5/13 5/18 5/23 5/28 6/2 6/7 6/12 6/17

Leave

Remain

“ R E M AI N” L E A DS I N B E T T I NG M A R KE TS

Remain (1/4)57%

Leave (3/1)43%

Most Popular Bets

Oddschecker Brexit Referendum Betting Odds June 21

C O N S ID ERATI ONS D R I VI NG V O T I NG B E H AVIO RS

30%

19%29%

4%

9%

9%Which is likely to be better for jobs, investment and the economy generally

Which is likely to help us deal better with the issue of immigration

Which is likely to strike a better balance between Britain's right to act independently, and the appropriate level of co-operation with other countries

Which is likely to maximise Britain's influence in the world

Something else

None of these

Source: YouGov/Times Survey 6/17-6/19

Which ONE of the followingwill be the most important to you in deciding how to vote in the referendum?

W H Y B R I T ONS M I G H T WA N T T O L E AV E

More immigration into Britain,

4%

Less immigration into Britain

54%

Would make no difference to the amount of immigration

30%

Don't know12%

Do you think there would be more or less immigration into Britain if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference?


Good for NHS34%

Bad for NHS23%

Would make no difference to the NHS

26%

Don't know17%

Do you think it would have a good or bad effect on the NHS if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference?

W H Y B R I T ONS M I G H T WA N T T O R E M A I N

Better off22%

Worse off37%

Would make no real

difference to the British economy

25%

Don't know15%

Do you think Britain would be economically better or worse off if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference?


Good for jobs21%

Bad for jobs36%

Would make no difference to British jobs

28%

Don't know16%

Do you think it would have a good or bad effect on British jobs if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference?

PAGE 24

E U R O PE ANS O V E R WHEL MING LY A G R EE T H AT U K D E PART URE W O U L D H U R T T H E E U

57%

62%

65%

66%

70%

70%

74%

75%

89%

23%

32%

14%

11%

16%

10%

16%

17%

8%

Italy

France

Greece

Poland

Spain

Hungary

Germany

Netherlands

Sweden


If the UK were to leave the European Union, this would be a ________ for the EU?

Bad thing Good thing

PAGE 25

E U R O PE AN V I E W S A B O U T T H E F U T U RE O F T H E E U

35%

38%

39%

39%

40%

43%

44%

47%

65%

68%

27%

39%

21%

26%

35%

25%

29%

38%

25%

18%

30%

9%

34%

21%

17%

26%

24%

13%

6%

8%

Spain

Poland

France

Italy

Hungary

Germany

Netherlands

Sweden

UK

Greece

Some powers should be returned to national govts

Division of powers should remain the same

National govts should transfer more powers to EU


Which statement best describes your views about the future of the European Union?

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Public Opinion Landscape: Brexit