Public opinion landscape health care - mar 26

The Public Opinion Landscape:Health Care

March 26, 2012

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SUMMARY

1. Two years since being signed into law, opinion on the health reform law remains divided

• Views on the health reform law remain strongly partisan

2. Most elements of the health reform law are viewed favorably with the exception of the individual mandate

3. Most Americans consider the individual mandate unconstitutional

• A substantial minority believes the law has been overturned by the Supreme Court

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Views on Reform

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

40

44

41

35

45

40

44

40 41

50 48 4641

44 4643 44 43

51

44 43 44 43

40%

14 1410

1412 11

1518 18

9 8

13

1814

1215

17 16 1519

1719

1519%

46

41

48 50

43

49

4242 42

41 43 42 41 42 42 4239 41

3437

4137

4241%

201 0

201 1

201 2

Don’t know/RefusedUnfavorableFavorable

ACA signed into law on March 23, 2010

TWO YEARS OF CLOSELY DIVIDED OPINION ON ACAAs you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health

reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls4

A recent CBS News/New York Times poll shows 47 percent of Americans disapprove of the Affordable Care Act, with 36 percent indicating they support the law.

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar0%

20%

40%

60%

80% 7872

6973

68

7569 68 69

73

6671

64

72

65 6460

65

52

62 64 62 64 66%

36 37

49 48

41 42

3437 37

34

4337

4135 33

3833

3632 34 33

30

40 40%

138

23 2116

21

1115

12 12 11 912

1720

16

24

1411 12

19

1216

12%

ACA signed into law on March 23, 2010 RepublicansIndependentsDemocrats

201 0

201 1

201 2

A LASTING PARTISAN GAP ON ACA

Percent who say they have a favorable opinion of the health reform law:

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Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls

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8%

25%

32%

23%

4%

15%

34%

18%

15%

13%

6%

11%

60%

29%

6%

29%

REPUBLICAN OPPOSITION MARKEDLY MORE INTENSE THAN DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT

Total

Independents

Republicans

Democrats

As you may know, a new health reform bill was signed into law early last year. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll, February 29 – March 5, 2012

Very Favorable Very UnfavorableSomewhat Favorable Somewhat Unfavorable

Note: DK/REF answers not shown.

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Have the things you’ve heard about this law recently been mainly (positive) or mainly (negative)?

VAST MAJORITY HAVE HEARD MOSTLY NEGATIVE THINGS ABOUT THE LAW

Note: No opinion answers not shown. Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, March 7-10, 2012

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Mixed; 5%

Mainly nega-tive; 70%

Mainly posi-tive; 19%

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MOST AMERICANS FEEL THEY UNDERSTAND THE REFORMS THAT WERE PASSED BUT ONLY SOMEWHAT WELL; A QUARTER ADMITS THEY LACK UNDERSTANDINGHow well do you feel you understand the healthcare reforms that were passed by Congress in March of 2010?

Source: AP-GfK Poll, February, 16-20, 2012

Extremely Well Not Well At AllVery Well Not Too Well

Apr-10

Feb-12

8%

10%

20%

18%

44%

44%

17%

12%

12%

15%

Somewhat Well

Note: “Don’t know / Refused answers not shown.

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FEW HAVE FELT LAW’S EFFECTTHOSE WHO HAVE CITE INCREASED ACCESS AND COST

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls, February 29 – March 5, 2012

83%No

14%Yes3%

DK/REF

So far, would you say you and your family have personally benefitted from the health reform law, or not?

So far, would you say you and your family have been negatively affected by the health reform law, or not?

Most common benefit: Access to health care (39%) Most common negative: Cost (52%)

76%No

21%Yes

4%DK/REF

MIXED FEELINGS ABOUT LAW’S IMPACT ON THE COUNTRY


Note: “Depends” (vol.) and Don’t know / Refused answers not shown.

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Do you think the country as a whole will be better off or worse off under the new health reform law, or don’t you think it will make much difference?

Better off Worse off Wont make much difference0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

38% 36%

18%

The country as a whole

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Source: USA Today/Gallup Poll, February 20-21, 2012

ONLY A QUARTER OF AMERICANS BELIEVE THE LAW WILL MAKE THEIR FAMILY’S HEALTHCARE SITUATION BETTER; VIEWS ARE HIGHLY PARTISAN

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

All Americans

3%

26%

40%

24%

25%

33%

43%

34%

68%

35%

12%

38%

Make Better Not Much Difference Make Worse

Note: Don’t know / Refused answers not shown.

Now suppose all the provisions of the healthcare law go into effect in the next few years. In the long run, how do you think the healthcare law would affect your family’s healthcare situation? Would it make things better, not make much difference, or would it make things worse?

54%

49%

47%

44%

27%

26%

32%

38%

33%

40%

51%

50%

15%

12%

19%

16%

22%

24%

Allowed many young adults under age 26 to obtain health insurance coverage

Lowered prescription drug costs for seniors

Eliminated costs for preventive services such as blood pressure screenings for people with health insurance

Significantly increased the price of health insurance

Increased the federal budget deficit

Caused many employers to drop health insurance coverage for their employees

YES, health care law has done this

NO, health care law has not done this Don’t know/Refused


MORE PERCEIVE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF LAW THAN POSITIVE EFFECTS

As of today, do you think the health care law has or has not done each of the following?

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Elements of the Law

MOST ELEMENTS OF LAW VIEWED FAVORABLY BY MAJORITY OF PUBLIC

Very favorable

Somewhat favorable

Somewhat unfavorable

Very unfavorable

Require easy-to-understand plan summaries 50% 29% 7% 11%Guaranteed issue 45 24 11 17Tax credits to small businesses 44 36 8 8Subsidy assistance to individuals 43 28 10 15No cost sharing for preventive services 42 27 15 13Health plan decision appeals 37 34 12 12Medicaid expansion 36 34 12 15Medical loss ratio 32 25 16 19Employer mandate/penalty for large employers 29 25 15 29Increase Medicare payroll tax on upper income 26 27 17 24Basic benefits package, defined by government 23 28 15 31Individual mandate/penalty 15 17 12 54

Response wording abbreviated. Don’t know/Refused answers not shown.

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Next, I’m going to read you several elements of the health reform law. As I read each one, please tell me whether you feel very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable about it.

MOST POPULAR PROVISIONS AMONG LEAST WIDELY RECOGNIZED

80%

79%

71%

69%

57%

32%

49%

49%

51%

37%

35%

64%

Health plan decision appeals

Individual mandate/penalty

Medical loss ratio

Require easy-to-understand plan summaries

Tax credits to small businesses

No cost sharing for preventive services

Percent with a favorable view of provision

Percent who are aware provision is included in ACA

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Percent who say they have a favorable opinion of each of the following and percent who say they are aware each is included in the health reform law:

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AMERICANS OPPOSE THE INDIVIDUAL MANDATEDo you favor, oppose, or neither favor nor oppose a law...

…that would require every American to have health insurance, or pay money to the government as a penalty if they do not, unless the person is very poor?

Source: AP-GfK Poll, February 16-20, 2012

31%

59%

7%

Oppose

Favor Neither

34%

58%

6%

Oppose

Favor

Jan, 2011 Feb, 2012

Neither


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BUT FAVOR THE EMPLOYER MANDATE

Do you favor, oppose, or neither favor nor oppose a law...

…requiring most medium-size and large companies to offer health insurance to their employees or pay money to the government as a penalty if they don’t?

Source: AP-GfK Poll, February, 16-20, 2012

59%

32%

9%

Oppose

FavorNeither

60%

32%

6%

Oppose

Favor

Jan, 2011 Feb, 2012

Neither


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Next Steps

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PLURALITY OF AMERICANS THINK LAW MAY NEED SMALL TWEAKS BUT WANT TO SEE HOW IT WORKS; OVER A THIRD WANT IT REPEALED

Source: Bloomberg News Poll, March 8-11, 2012

Turning to the health care law passed last year, what is your opinion of the law? It should be repealed. It may need small modifications, but we should see how it works. It should be left alone.

Note: “Unsure” answers not shown.

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

37%

46%

11%

Should be repealedSee how it worksShould be left alone

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Constitutionality

58%

28%

14%

It has been overturned by the Supreme Court and is no longer law

It is still the law of the

landDon’t know/

Refused

FOUR IN TEN ARE UNSURE WHETHER THE LAW HAS BEEN OVERTURNED BY THE SUPREME COURT OR MISTAKENLY BELIEVE IT HAS BEEN OVERTURNED

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As far as you know, which comes closest to describing the current status of the health reform law that was passed in 2010?

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Think healthcare law is a bad thing

Think healthcare law is a good thing

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

All Americans

4%

38%

6%

21%

37%

20%

94%

54%

94%

70%

56%

72%

Constitutional Unconstitutional

MOST AMERICANS BELIEVE THE INDIVIDUAL MANDATE IS UNCONSTITUTIONAL

Source: USA Today/Gallup Poll, February 20-21, 2012 Note: Don’t know / Refused answers not shown.

As you may know, the Supreme Court will hear arguments next month concerning a requirement in the healthcare law that every American must buy health insurance or pay a fine. Regardless of whether you favor or oppose the law, do you think this requirement is constitutional or unconstitutional?

AS HEALTH CARE LAW’S TRIAL APPROACHES, PLURALITY OF AMERICANS SAY DITCH ENTIRE LAW

Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, March 7-10, 201223

The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments about the health care law later this month. Of these three options, which would you prefer to have the Supreme Court do: 1) uphold the entire law, 2) throw out the part of the law that requires individuals to have coverage and keep the rest of the law, or 3) throw out the entire law?

Uphold the law Throw out the mandate

Throw out the whole law

No opinion

26% 25%

42%

7%

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IF SUPREME COURT RULES AGAINST ACA, SIX IN TEN WANT LAWMAKERS TO KEEP WORKING ON PROPOSALS

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

All Americans

52%

57%

72%

60%

43%

35%

25%

34%

Focus on developing new proposals to improve Americans’ access to affordable health care

Stop talking about health care and focus on other national problems

If the Supreme Court rules that the health care law is unconstitutional, do you think lawmakers should focus on developing new proposals to improve Americans’ access to affordable health care, or should they stop talking about health care and focus on other national problems?


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The Players

MAJORITY CONTINUE TO DISAPPROVE OF OBAMA’S HANDLING OF HEALTH CARE

Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of March 24, 2012

Obama Job Approval – Health Care

As of March 24

President Obama signs health care reform bill into law on March 23, 2010

OPPOSE: 50%

FAVOR: 42%

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And which party could do a better job of [DEALING WITH HEALTHCARE]?

Republican Party

Democratic Party

Both Equally (vol.)

Neither(vol.)

DK/Ref (vol.)

Mar 7-11, 2012 35% 49% 1% 7% 8%

Sep 22-Oct 4, 2011 38% 49% 3% 4% 6%

Mar 30-Apr 3, 2011 40% 42% 6% 5% 7%

Oct 13-18, 2010 32% 39% 5% 11% 13%

Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 36% 45% 5% 7% 6%

DEMOCRATS SEEN AS BETTER ON HEALTHCARE THAN REPUBLICANS

Source: Pew Research Center For The People & The Press, March 7-11, 2012

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GPG Research

GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.

GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex health care topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.

For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:

Susan Kannel ([email protected]) I Chris Gallup ([email protected])

News & Politics

Public opinion landscape health care - mar 26