F E B R U A R Y 1 , 2 0 1 6

Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses

M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y / I O W A N S

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M O S T I M P ORTAN T I S S UE S: T E R R ORIS M N O T A S I M P O RTA NT T O I O WA R E P U BL ICA NS; H E A LTH C A R E M O R E I M P O RTANT F O R I O WA D E M O CRAT S

Which of these is most important to you when choosing who to support for a presidential nomination?

Source: Quinnipiac, December 16-20, 2015 (National), January 25-31, 2016 (Iowa)

27% 30%

11% 8%4%

10%

0% 0% 2% 4% 1%

34%

10%3% 1%

10%14%

8% 6%2% 4% 3%

Economy and jobs

Terrorism Immigration Federal deficit

Health care Foreign policy

Climate change

Race relations

Abortion Gun policy Taxes

27%

15%11% 9%

5% 8%0% 0%

5% 8%2%

36%

4% 2% 3%

22%

6%11%

3% 2% 3% 2%

Economy and jobs

Terrorism Immigration Federal deficit

Health care Foreign policy

Climate change

Race relations

Abortion Gun policy Taxes

RepublicansDemocrats

Natio

nal

Iow

a

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AT T R IB UTES V O T ERS A R E L O O K ING F O R I N T H E I R PA R TY ’S N O M I NE E N AT IO NALLY A N D I N I O WA

Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 18-24, 2016

Democrats Republicans

Shares values 19% 20%

Cares about needs/problems 28% 13%

Strong leadership 16% 29%

Honest/Trustworthy 14% 21%

Right experience 16% 8%

Best chance of winning 6% 7%

Thinking about your party’s nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you?

Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015

NATIONALLY IOWA

Democrats Republicans

Shares values 16% 26%

Cares about needs/problems 26% 9%

Strong leadership 13% 26%

Honest/Trustworthy 17% 24%

Right experience 18% 6%

Best chance of winning 9% 7%

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L I K E LY R E P U BL ICA N C A U CUS G O E RS I N I O WA T H I N K E L E C TIO N I S M O R E A B O U T L E A DE RSHI P; L I K E LY D E M O CRATI C C A U C US G O E R S T H I N K I T ’ S A B O UT I S S U ES

Do you think this election is more about leadership or more about issues candidates stand for?

Source: The Iowa Poll, conducted January 7-10, 2016 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co.

52%

40%

30%

57%

Leadership Issues

Republicans DemocratsNote: “Something else,” and “Not sure” results not shown

PAGE  6

N AT I ONA LLY, V O T ERS WA N T C H A N GE O V E R E X P ERI ENC E; L I K E LY I O WA C A U C US G O E R S R E F L ECT T H I S S E N TI MENT

Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, January 9-13, 2016

Thinking about the 2016 presidential elections, which of the following statements comes closers to your point of view?

36%

61%

3%Depends / Not sure

Statement A: This is a time

when it is important to look

for a more experienced and

tested person even if he or she

brings fewer changes to the

current policies.

Statement B: This is a time when it is important to

look for a person who will bring

greater changes to the current

policies even if he or she is less

experienced and tested.

Would you say you feel betrayed by politicians from your political party, or not?

53%

44%

29%

68%

Yes

No

Republicans

Democrats

NATIONALLY IOWA

I O W A C A U C U S

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H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R D E MOCRATS

Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR

Only registered Democrats are eligible to participate although the party does offer same-day registration.

1,683 Democratic caucuses will be held at more than 1,000 locations. They start at 8 p.m. EST and can last an hour or more. There are 44 delegates to the national convention that can be won through this process. Note: Eight more unpledged party leaders and elected officials get to go straight to the national convention from Iowa ("superdelegates”).

Here's what happens on caucus night:

1. Supporters make the case for their candidates.

2. Caucus goers separate into groups in corners or parts of the room for their candidates of choice.

3. When the groups are formed, the elected chair adds up how many supporters are in each cluster. Each candidate has to meet a viability threshold of 15 percent.

4. If a candidate is determined not to be viable, that candidate's supporters have to choose another candidate.

5. During the re-caucusing process, supporters from the viable candidates try to sway the nonviable candidate's voters to their side.

6. Once the re-caucusing is settled and all remaining candidates are deemed viable, the numbers are tallied.

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H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R R E P U BL ICAN S

Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR

Only registered Republicans are eligible to participate although the party does offer same-day registration.

GOP caucuses will be held at about 700 locations. They also start at 8 p.m. EST and last about an hour. Thirty delegates are at stake of the 1,236 needed to be the GOP nominee.

Here's what happens on caucus night:

1. Presidential candidate representatives speak and make their case.

2. Caucus goers pick a candidate through paper ballot. In past years, depending on the size of the caucus, this could have been done through a show of hands. Unlike Democrats, the Republicans have no 15 percent threshold.

3. Votes are tallied and reported to party headquarters.

R E P U B L I C A N S

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T R U M P J U M PS A H E AD O F C R U Z A S W E N E A R T H E F I N I SH L I N E I N I O WA ; L AT E J U M P B Y R U B I O

Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016

10%8% 8% 7%

6% 6% 5% 4% 4%7%

7% 7%8% 9%

14%

26%

28%24%

7% 6% 6%

6%9%

11% 12%

12%

17%

8%

15%

20%23% 23% 23%

26% 28%31%

9%11%

13%18%

22% 22%

13%

8% 8%

June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2016 Republican Primary PreferenceAmong Republican and Republican leaning voters

Bush Cruz Rubio Trump Carson

Candidate Average

Donald Trump 30.7%Ted Cruz 23.8%

Marco Rubio 17.4%Ben Carson 7.7%

Jeb Bush 3.9%Rand Paul 3.9%

Mike Huckabee 3.1%John Kasich 2.6%

Chris Christie 2.3%Carly Fiorina 2.1%

Rick Santorum 1.2%Jim Gilmore 0.0%

HuffPost Pollster Trendas of February 1, 2016

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P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS

Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls, national polls, and endorsementsPredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster

1%

4%

29%

66%

Jeb Bush

Marco Rubio

Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

PredictWise Chance of Winning Iowa CaucusesAs of February 1st

46%

38%

14%

1%

Donald Trump

Ted Cruz

Marco Rubio

Ben Carson

FiveThirtyEight.com Chance of Winning Iowa CaucusesAs of February 1st

Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016 PAGE 13

I O WA N S S H O W G R E ATER I N T E NSI TY O F S U P P ORT F O R T R U MP & C R U Z O V E R R U B I O

76%

58%

40%

18%

31%

43%

5%

11%

15%

Donald Trump

Ted Cruz

Marco Rubio

Strongly support Somewhat support Might vote differently

Would you say you strongly support [candidate] or somewhat support [candidate], or do you think you might vote differently on Caucus Day?

Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016 PAGE 14

M A J O RI TY O F I O WA R E P U B LIC ANS H AV E M A D E U P T H E I R M I N D S O N A C A N D IDAT E; M O R E T H A N A T H I R D S AY T H E Y D E F I NIT ELY D O N ’ T WA N T T R UM P

72%81%

74%63%

28%18%

26%37%

Total Trump supporter

Cruz supporter

Rubio supporter

Made up Might change

Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

7%

9%

10%

12%

13%

15%

21%

35%

Carson

Rubio

Paul

Christie

Kasich

Cruz

Bush

Trump

Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president?

Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 15

M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS N O T C O N TA CTE D B Y A C A N D ID ATE; A Q U A R TER H AV E H E A RD F R O M C R U Z C A M PA IGN

Yes45%No

55%

Did anyone contact you personally to ask you to caucus for a particular candidate?

9%

12%

5%

25%

8%

4%

7%

4%

9%

17%

5%

13%

IF YES: For which candidate were you asked to caucus?

Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 16

FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA

1. Turnout

Pollsters have noted differences in their results when they change their assumptions about voter turnout. Trump's success in particular depends on first-time voters registering and showing up to caucus. A recent Monmouth University poll found that when likely Iowa caucus-goers are polled, Trump leads Cruz 30 percent to 23 percent. However, when the pollster narrows the sample size to registered Republicans who have a history of voting, the odds shift in Cruz's favor and he leads Trump 28 percent to 23 percent.

Monmouth's poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers is based on an estimate of 170,000 voters coming out, which surpasses Iowa's 122,000 record turnout in 2012. Increasing the turnout estimate to 200,000 gives Trump an 11-point lead, while decreasing it to 130,000 ties the two opponents at 26 percent.

2. Fickle Voters

According to a Quinnipiac poll of likely Republican caucus-goers, 28 percent of those who support a candidate say they could change their mind by election day.

3. Momentum Shifts: Rubio

In 2012, the Republican Iowa caucuses saw a lot of last-minute shifting in the polls. Although former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was ahead going into the caucuses, polls did pick up on former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum’s big upswing, which ultimately led him to narrowly prevail over Romney. No candidate is climbing at the rate Santorum was right before the 2012 caucuses. But that doesn’t rule out the possibility of a surprise, especially given the projected differences in outcome based on turnout. One possibility -- although it looks like a slim one -- is that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio gains momentum or benefits from higher turnout among those who prefer an “establishment” candidate over Trump or Cruz.

D E M O C R A T S

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C L I N TON ’S L E A D O V E R S A N DER S C O N TI NUES T O S H R I NK I N I O WA

Candidate Average

Hillary Clinton 47.7%Bernie Sanders 44.6%Martin O’Malley 3.7%

HuffPost Pollster Trendas of February 1st, 2016

Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016

18% 21%27% 29% 32% 34% 37%

42% 45%

56% 54% 50% 48% 48% 51% 51% 48% 48%

June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2016 Democratic Primary PreferenceAmong registered/leaned Democrats

Sanders Clinton

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P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS

27%

73%

Bernie Sanders

Hillary Clinton

PredictWise Chance of Winning Iowa CaucusesAs of February 1st

34%

66%

Bernie Sanders

Hillary Clinton

FiveThirtyEight.com Chance of Winning Iowa CaucusesAs of February 1st

Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls, national polls, and endorsementsPredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster

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M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS I N I O WA H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P ; I N T E NS ITY O F S U P P ORT I S S T R O NG F O R B O T H C A N DI DATE S

85% 84% 87%

14% 15% 12%

Total Clinton supporter

Sanders supporter

Made up Might change

Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016

79%

76%

15%

15%

4%

7%

Hillary Clinton

Bernie Sanders

Strongly support Somewhat support Might vote differently

Would you say you strongly support [candidate] or somewhat support [candidate], or do you think you might vote differently on Caucus Day?

Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016

Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 21

M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS C O N TACTE D B Y A C A N D ID ATE; N E A RLY H A L F H AV E H E A R D F R O M C L I N TON

Yes62%

No37%

Did anyone contact you personally to ask you to caucus for a particular candidate?

49%

15%

38%

Clinton O'Malley Sanders

IF YES: For which candidate were you asked to caucus?

Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 22

FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA

1. Turnout

Sanders’ success relies heavily on young and first-time voters showing up to caucus. Polls have consistently found his support sky-high among younger voters and Clinton’s stronger among older voters.

People under the age of 29 have made up 9-17 percent of Iowa caucus-goers in the last five presidential elections. With the exception of 2008, which saw a record number of young voters, on average only 3-4 percent of eligible caucus-goers under 29 show up to vote on election day. If Sanders motivates this group to turn out, he could upset Clinton.

2. Fickle Voters

A recent Quinnipiac poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers shows 1 in 7 voters who support a candidate say there's a chance they could change their mind by the time they cast their vote. The format of the caucus provides opportunities for voters to change their minds, so those waffling on their choice could be convinced to change candidates.

3. Momentum Shifts: O’Malley

According to the HuffPost pollster average, O'Malley reels in only 4 percent of Democrats, well below the 15 percent threshold for a candidate to be considered viable. In most caucus locations, O’Malley supporters will be forced to choose another candidate. There’s no real guidance in the polls on what O’Malley’s supporters will do, though, since there are so few of them. It's hard to say who those 4 percent will support on caucus day, and with a race this tight, which way they swing could affect the outcome.

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