Public opinion landscape - Political

Election 2012: A Brief Overview and Analysis

September 28, 2012

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..3

2. Campaign Interest & Engagement……………………………………….10

3. Views of the Candidates..……………………………………………….…..13

4. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race ……………..….…….…19

5. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……22

6. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...25

7. The Debates……………………………………………………………………….29

Slide

3

Political Context

NUMBER WHO THINK COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONG TRACK TRENDING DOWN; JOBS IS TOP ISSUE

4

Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data

As of September 27, 2012

PROBLEM %

Unemployment and jobs 43

The federal deficit 14

Health care 11

Gas prices 7

The situation in the Middle East 6

Taxes 4

Immigration 3

Terrorism 3

Which of the following do you see as the most important issue facing the country right now?

Source: Bloomberg National Poll, September 21-24, 2012

WRONG TRACK 56.5%

RIGHT DIRECTION 35.9%

AMERICANS SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THEIR VIEW OF THE U.S. ECONOMY

5

What is your current view of the economy in the U.S.?

Source: Bloomberg News National Poll, Sept 21-24, 2012 Note: “Not sure” results are not shown.

45%

21%

33%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Cautious because nothing isreally happening

Fearful because things aregetting worse

Hopeful because there aresigns of improvement

FOR VOTERS, IT’S STILL THE ECONOMY ENERGY, TERRORISM, IMMIGRATION LESS IMPORTANT THAN IN 2008

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In making your decision about who to vote for this fall, will the issue of [ITEM] be very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012

Based on registered voters. All 2008 figures from August except * October 2008 and ** May 2008

41%

55%

60%

68%

69%

74%

83%

87%

52%

77%

72%

69%

73%

73%

80%

87%

Immigration

Energy

Terrorism

Budget deficit**

Education

Health care

Jobs*

Economy

20082012

+3

+1

-4

-1

-12

-22

-11

% of voters saying each is “Very important” to their vote

SWING VOTERS SHARE SIMILARITIES WITH ROMNEY AND OBAMA VOTERS

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Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012 Based on registered voters


Swing voters

%

Budget deficit 63

Terrorism 57

Immigration 39

Economy 85

Foreign policy 45

Jobs 74

Taxes 57

Abortion 34

Energy 54

Health care 65

Medicare 61

Education 74

% of swing voters who say each is “very important” to their vote

Romney voters

Obama voters Diff

% %

Budget deficit 82 55 R+27

Terrorism 68 55 R+13

Immigration 47 36 R+11

Economy 93 83 R+10

Foreign policy 66 56 R+10

Jobs 87 81 R+6

Taxes 70 64 R+6

Abortion 46 49 O+3

Energy 51 59 O+8

Health care 67 82 O+15

Medicare 55 74 O+19

Education 52 84 O+32

MORE WOMEN RATE ISSUE OF ABORTION AS VERY IMPORTANT

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Total Men Women M-W Diff

% % %

Abortion 46 36 54 W+18

Health care 74 67 81 W+14

Education 69 64 74 W+10

Jobs 83 78 86 W+8

Medicare 65 62 67 W+5

Economy 87 85 89 W+4

Immigration 41 39 43 W+4

Terrorism 60 59 62 W+3

Taxes 66 66 66 --

Foreign policy 60 61 60 M+1

Budget deficit 68 70 67 M+3

Energy 55 57 53 M+4


MEDICARE A TOP ISSUE FOR OLDER VOTERS

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18-49 50-64 65+ Young-Old Diff

% % %

Medicare 55 69 83 -28

Terrorism 53 63 72 -19

Foreign policy 55 59 73 -18

Energy 52 55 64 -12

Immigration 37 41 47 -10

Health care 72 75 80 -8

Abortion 45 45 49 -4

Economy 86 89 90 -4

Jobs 81 84 84 -3

Budget deficit 68 66 70 -2

Education 72 65 69 +3

Taxes 66 69 63 +3


10

Campaign Interest and Engagement

ENGAGEMENT DOWN FROM 2008, PARTICULARLY AMONG YOUNG VOTERS

11


How much thought have you given to the coming presidential election…Quite a lot or only a little?

% given a lot of thought to the election 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Diff 2012 - 2008

All voters 69% 56% 58% 71% 78% 70% -8

Republican 72 65 66 75 81 72 -9

Democrat 74 57 58 70 79 71 -8

Independent 63 46 51 68 77 66 -11

18-29 58 46 41 57 65 48 -17

30-49 74 56 57 71 78 70 -8

50-65 68 59 66 76 86 75 -11

65+ 70 61 64 73 77 75 -2

White 70 56 60 72 80 70 -10

Black 66 50 54 64 76 76 - Based on registered voters. Figures from all years from September surveys

ALTHOUGH INTEREST IS DOWN, VOTER INTENT IS HIGH

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Based on registered voters. All figures are from September except definitely plan to vote from 2004 and 2000, which are from October

78% 78% 87% 84% 84%

69%

56% 59%

71% 78%

70%

47%

29% 27%

46% 50% 44%

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Definitely plan to vote

Given a lot of thought to election

Following election news very closely

13

Views of the Candidates

AMERICANS APPROVE OF OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB PERFORMANCE

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Source: Gallup Poll, September 17 – 23 , 2012

49% 45%

6%

Overall Job Approval Approve Disapprove No opinion

Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue…

Issue NET APPROVE

NET DISAPPROVE

Standing up for the middle class 58% 39%

Taxes 51% 46%

Foreign policy 50% 45%

Medicare 50% 44%

The economy 48% 51%

The federal budget and spending

40% 57%

Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Sept. 16-20, 2012

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JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION

Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

Presidential Job Approval January March June October

2012: Barack Obama 44% 46% 47% ?

2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50%

1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58%

1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33%

1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58%

1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32%

1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32%

1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59%

1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74%

Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election

President’s in red lost re-election

Obama Averages 45% Job Approval in August

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ROMNEY’S POPULARITY STAYS LOW, OBAMA IS VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY

UNFAVORABLE 43.4% FAVORABLE 52.2%

UNFAVORABLE 49.4% FAVORABLE 42.5%


Barack Obama Favorable Rating Mitt Romney Favorable Rating

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Source: Pew Research Center. 1988-2000 data from Gallup September Surveys

NO PREVIOUS CANDIDATE IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING CONVENTIONS

52 54 59 62 53

63 55

40 39 35 30 42

34 42

Dukakis Clinton Clinton Gore Kerry Obama Obama

Favorable

Unfavorable

58 49 53 51 54

61

45 36

46 37 41 43

35 50

GHWB GHWB Dole GWB GWB McCain Romney

Favorable

Unfavorable

Democratic candidates

Republican candidates

Sept 1988 Sept 1992 Sept 1996 Sept 2000 Sept 2004 Sept 2008 Sept 2012

Based on registered

voters.

CRITICISM OF ROMNEY’S CAMPAIGN GROWS; SIX IN TEN RATE HIS EFFORTS NEGATIVELY

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54%

35% 43%

61%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Obama's handling of his campaign Romney's handling of hiscampaign

FavorableUnfavorable

Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the way [Barack Obama / Mitt Romney] is running his presidential campaign?

Was 49% in July

Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 19-23, 2012

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Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race

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OBAMA’S LEAD OVER ROMNEY GROWS TO OVER FOUR POINTS



OBAMA 48.7%

ROMNEY 44.5%

+4.2

Sept 28, 2008 %

Obama 47.9

McCain 43.1

Obama +4.8

Sept 28, 2004 %

Bush 49.3

Kerry 43.4

Bush +5.9

A Look Back Four Years Ago Today

Eight Years Ago Today

Source: Real Clear Politics

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LIKELY VOTERS GIVE OBAMA THE EDGE ON MOST ISSUES

Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Sept 16-20, 2012

Now I would like to read you a list of issues that some people have said are important to them. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, who will better handle this issue – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

45% 48% 49% 50% 52% 52% 50% 48% 48% 46%

43% 43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

The federal budgetand spending

Jobs The economy Taxes Medicare Foreign policy

Obama Romney

Note: “Neither,” and “No opinion” results are not shown.

R +5

Tied O +1

O +4

O +9

O +9

22

Battleground States

23

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH

3 12

7

55 6

4 3

6

11 5

9

3

3

5

4

3

4

38

29

6

7

10

6

10

6

8 6 9 16

29

9 15 13

11

20 11

10 16

18 20

8 5

THE ELECTORAL MAP

Electoral Count (as shown):

Romney: 191 Obama: 265 Toss-Up: 82

VT 3

NH 4

RI 4

NJ 14

CT 7

DE 3

MD 10

DC 3

MA 11

Source: Real Clear Politics (as of September 28, 2012)

OBAMA LEADS IN ALL TOSS-UP STATES

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Source: Real Clear Politics, as of September 28, 2012

States Obama Romney Obama Romney

Colorado 48.7% 45.8% 9 0

Florida 49.3% 46.1% 29 0

Iowa 48.4% 44.8% 6 0

Nevada 49.0% 45.2% 6 0

New Hampshire 47.3% 44.8% 4 0

North Carolina 47.8% 46.7% 15 0

Ohio 49.3% 43.9% 18 0

Virginia 49.1% 45.0% 13 0

Wisconsin 51.5% 43.7% 10 0

Swing State Voters 110 0

Leaning/Likely State Voters 237 191

Total Overall Votes 347 191

RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORAL VOTES

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Battle for Congress

2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH

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Likely Dem (3) Lean Dem (6) Toss-Up (7) Lean Rep (1) Likely Rep (1) ME* (Open) –

Republican HI (Open) – Democrat

MT (Tester) – Democrat

AZ (Open) – Republican

NE (Open) – Democrat

PA (Casey) – Democrat

FL (Nelson) – Democrat

VA (Open) – Democrat

MI (Stabenow) – Democrat

OH (Brown) – Democrat

WI (Open) – Democrat

CT (Open) – Democrat

ND (Open) - Democrat

NM (Open) – Democrat

MA (Brown) – Republican

MO (McCaskill) – Democrat

NV (Heller) – Republican

IN (Open) – Republican

Source: Roll Call, as of September 27, 2012 *Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if he wins the open Maine seat

Democrats need to win 3 Toss-Up seats to retain control of the Senate if they pick up a seat in ME, while losing a seat in NE.

Republicans need to win 6 Toss-Up seats to gain control of the Senate if they pick up a seat in NE, while losing a seat in ME.

LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES

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Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of September 27, 2012)

OR

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH

(8/20 – 9/19)

Rehberg : 46% Tester: 44%

MT

Heller: 43% Berkley: 42%

(9/18-9/20)

(9/11-9/23)

Baldwin: 49% Thompson: 44%

(8/22-9/11)

McCaskill: 48% Akin: 43%

Kaine: 49% Allen: 44%

(9/11-9/18)

(9/15-9/25)

King: 44% Summers: 32%

Dill: 14%

Warren: 47%

Brown: 46%

(9/13-9/24)

WI

NV

MO VA

ME

MA

AZ

Flake: 46% Carmona: 42%

(9/7-9/25)

ND

(5/3-7/11)

Berg: 49% Heitkamp: 44%

CT

(8/22-9/26)

Murphy: 44% McMahon: 41%

2012 HOUSE RACES TO WATCH

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Source: Roll Call, as of September 27, 2012

Retirements Democrats: 23 Republicans: 18

2012: 89 Freshman Republicans 9 Freshman Democrats If the election for CONGRESS were being

held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate, in your congressional district?

45% 46%

9%

Republicancandidate

Democraticcandidate

Undecided(vol.)

Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Sept 16-20, 2012

AMONG REGISTERED LIKELY VOTERS

Republican Toss Up Races 1. CA-7 (Lungren) 2. CA-26 (Open – Gallegly) 3. CA-52 (Bilbray) 4. CO-3 (Tipton) 5. CO-6 (Coffman) 6. IL-11 (Biggert) 7. MN-8 (Cravaack) 8. NV-3 (Heck) 9. NH-2 (Bass) 10.NY-18 (Hayworth) 11.NY-19 (Gibson) 12.NY-24 (Buerkle) 13.OH-16 (Merged – Renacci) 14.TX-23 (Canseco)

Democratic Toss Up Races

1. GA-12 (Barrow) 2. IL-12 (Open-Costello) 3. MA-6 (Tierney) 4. NC-7 (McIntyre) 5. NY-21 (Owens) 6. NY-27 (Hochul) 7. PA-12 (Critz) 8. RI-1 (Cicilline) 9. UT-4 (Matheson)

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The Debates

NEARLY HALF OF LIKELY VOTERS PLAN TO WATCH ALL OF THE DEBATES

30

Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, September 16-20, 2012

49%

34%

7% 8% 2%

All Some A little None Unsure0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Now thinking about the Presidential debates and the Vice Presidential debate…

As you may know, in October Mitt Romney and Barack Obama will participate in three debates while Joe Biden and Paul Ryan will participate in one debate.

Do you plan to watch all, some, a little, or none of these debates?

FEW LIKELY VOTERS SAY DEBATES ARE EXTREMELY OR VERY IMPORTANT TO THEIR VOTE

31

Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, September 16-20, 2012

1%

38%

14%

24%

12%

11%

Unsure

Not at all important

A little important

Somewhat important

Very important

Extremely important

No matter how much of these debates that you plan to watch…

How important will these debates be to your decision on who to vote for President? Would you say that these debates will be extremely, very, somewhat, a little or not at all important in your voting decision for President?

23%

UPCOMING DEBATE SCHEDULE

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Date Debate Focus Wed, Oct. 3 First Presidential Debate Domestic policy

Thurs, Oct 11 Vice Presidential Debate Foreign and domestic topics

Tues, Oct 16 Second Presidential Debate Town meeting format

Mon, Oct 22 Third Presidential Debate Foreign policy

Source: Commission on Presidential Debates

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GPG Research

GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.

GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.

For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:

Joel Johnson ([email protected]) or David Cantor ([email protected])

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Public opinion landscape - Political