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O C T O B E R 2 0 1 5
Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis
M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y
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O N LY O N E I N F O U R A M E R ICA NS F E E L T H E N AT I ON I S H E A DING IN T H E R I G H T D I R E CTI ON
The percentage of Americans saying the nation
is heading in the right direction hasn’t topped 50%
in about a decade.
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of October 26, 2015
RIGHT DIRECTION 27.2%
WRONG TRACK 64.2%
Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, October 15-18, 2015 PAGE 4
L A R G E PA R TI SAN D I V ID E O V E R P R E F ER ENCE F O R E X P ER IEN CE O R F O R O U T S I DER
All else equal, would you like the next president to be someone who has experience in how the political system works, or someone from outside the existing political establishment?
76%
21%
39%
57%
Prefer someone with experience
Prefer a political outsider
Republicans
Democrats
Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, October 15-18, 2015 PAGE 5
A M E R IC ANS A R E S P L I T O N W H AT PA R TY C O N T ROLL ING T H E W H I T E H O U S E W O U LD B E B E T T E R F O R T H E C O U NTRY
Democrat41%
Neither a Republican or Democrat/ Some
other party5%
Makes no difference9%
Not sure5%
Republican40% Do you think it would be better for the country to have a
Democrat or a Republican as the next president?
2 0 1 6 – E L E C T I O N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :R E P U B L I CA N N O M I N A T I O N
PAGE 7
S TA G E I S S E T F O R N E X T G O P D E B ATE
CNBC, 6pm / 8 p.m. ET, October 28 in Boulder, CO.
PAGE 8
T R U M P H A S B E E N L E A DI NG G O P R A C E
Source: NBC News / Wall Street Journal Survey, October 15-18, 2015
22%
14%
7% 8%4%
9%
5%
9%
14%
5%
11% 13%11% 10%
20%
22%
1%
19%21%
25%
June July Sept Oct
2016 Republican Primary PreferenceAmong Republican and Republican leaning voters
Bush Cruz Rubio Carson Trump
Candidate Average
Donald Trump 32.5%Ben Carson 22.6%Marco Rubio 7.7%
Jeb Bush 7.4%Ted Cruz 5.1%
Carly Fiorina 4.8%Mike Huckabee 3.8%
John Kasich 2.8%Rand Paul 2.6%
Chris Christie 2.4%Lindsey Graham 1.2%
Bobby Jindal 0.7%Rick Santorum 0.7%George Pataki 0.4%Jim Gilmore 0.0%
HuffPost Pollster Trendas of October 28, 2015
Source: CBS/New York Times Poll, October 21-25, 2015 PAGE 9
B U T S O M E R E C EN T S I G NS O F # C A R SO NMENT UM A M O N G R E P U BL ICA NS N AT I ONAL LY
7%
7%
8%
22%
26%
Carly Fiorina
Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Ben Carson
*only showing candidates with more than 5%
Which one of these candidates would you like to see the Republican Party nominate for President in 2016? *Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters
Mind made up 28%
Too early 71%Don’t know/NA 1%
Asked of people who picked a candidate: Is your mind made up or
is it still too early to say for sure?
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A N D M O R E G O P V O T E RS C A N S E E T H E M SELV ES S U P P ORTI NG C A R S ON O R R U B I O T H A N T R U MP
Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, October 15-18, 2015
50% 49%
69%74%
74%62% 63% 65%
32%
47% 47%
59%
31% 33%
61% 56%
75%
57%
55% 51%
June July September October
Carson Rubio Trump Fiorina Bush
Next, I’m going to mention a number of people who
might seek the Republican nomination for president in 2016. For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether
you could see yourself supporting that person for the Republican nomination
for president in 2016.
% could see self supporting
Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, October 15-18, 2015 PAGE 11
T H E M O R E R E P U BLI CANS H E A R A B O U T B E N C A R SO N T H E M O R E T H E Y L I K E H I M ; O P P O SI TE E F F E CT F O R J E B B U S H
64%
52%47%
41%47%
41%
18%
29% 30%33%
45% 47%
Ben Carson Marco Rubio Carly Fiorina Ted Cruz Donald Trump Jeb Bush
The more you like him/her The less you like him/her
Regardless of who you may support, would you say that the
more you hear about [CANDIDATE] the more you like him/her, or the
more you hear about [CANDIDATE] the less you like him/her?
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data PAGE 12
R E P U BL ICA NS H AV E H I S T ORI CAL LY N O M INAT ED E A R LY F R O NT-R U N N ERS
Republican trial-heat poll closest to October of year prior to election
Date First place for nomination Second place for nomination or nominee
October 2011 Mitt Romney (20%) Herman Cain (18%)
October 2007 Rudy Giuliani (32%) John McCain (16%)
October 1999 George W. Bush (60%) Elizabeth Dole (11%)
September 1995 Bob Dole (46%) Phil Gramm (10%)
October 1987 George Bush (41%) Bob Dole (24%)
November 1979 Ronald Reagan (41%) Howard Baker (18%)
October 1975 Gerald Ford (48%) Ronald Reagan (25%)
October 1967 Richard Nixon (42%) Nelson Rockefeller (15%)
October 1963 Barry Goldwater (45%) Nelson Rockefeller (23%)
October 1959 Richard Nixon (67%) Nelson Rockefeller (19%)
Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, October 15-18, 2015 PAGE 13
T R U M P L E A DS O N R E P U BL ICA N E X P E CTATI ONS T O W I N B O T H T H E G O P N O M I NAT ION A N D H AV IN G T H E B E S T C H A NC E T O W I N T H E G E N E R AL E L E CTI ON
42%
15%12%
5%
43%
16%13%
11%
4% 3%
Donald Trump
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina
Most likely to win GOP nomination
Best chance to win the general election
Regardless of who you may support, which
candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president? Thinking about the candidates who do you think [has
the best chance of getting elected
president in November 2016]?
Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, October, 15-18, 2015 PAGE 14
T R U M P L E A DS O N A L M O S T A L L AT T R IBU TES; C A R SO N L E A DS W I T H H O N ES TY A N D P E R S ONA LIT Y; B U S H H A S T H E E X P E RIE NCE
Strongest leader
Best chance
Best on immigration
Closeston issues
Understands your
problemsBest
experience Most honest Best personality
Trump 47% 43% 39% 32% 29% 23% 21% 19%
Carson 9% 16% 9% 19% 19% 8% 33% 24%
Fiorina 6% 3% 4% 6% 8% 3% 7% 10%
Bush 12% 13% 13% 11% 10% 31% 10% 15%
Rubio 11% 11% 15% 11% 13% 12% 10% 14%
Cruz 8% 4% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 5%
Thinking about six of these candidates – (Trump) (Carson) (Fiorina) (Bush) (Rubio) (Cruz) – who do you think is/has the [ATTRIBUTE]?
PAGE 15
C A R S ON L E A DS T R U MP I N A L L B U T O N E R E C E NT P O L L O U T O F I O WA
19% 18%
27%
19% 20%
31% 32%
27% 28% 28%
Loras College (Oct. 19-22)
Monmouth (Oct. 22-25)
CBS/YouGov (Oct. 15-22)
DMR/Bloomberg (Oct. 16-19)
Quinnipiac (Oct. 14-20)
Donald Trump Ben Carson
CARSON +11
CARSON +14 EVEN CARSON
+9CARSON
+8
Source: Loras College Poll, October 19-22, Monmouth Poll, October 22-25, CBS/YouGov Poll, October 15-22, Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Poll, October 16-19, Quinnipiac Poll, October 14-20
Source: YouGov/CBS Poll, October 15-22, 2015 PAGE 16
H O W E VER , T R U MP M A I N TAIN S H I S L E A D I N B O T H N E W H A M P SH IRE A N D S O U T H C A R O LI NA
Candidate New HampshireDonald Trump 38%Ben Carson 12%Jeb Bush 8%Carly Fiorina 7%Marco Rubio 7%
Candidate South CarolinaDonald Trump 40%Ben Carson 23%Ted Cruz 8%Marco Rubio 7%Jeb Bush 6%
PAGE 17
T H E M O N E Y R A C E
Source: The Washington Post, courtesy of Federal Election Commission filings, reports by independent groups
2 0 1 6 – E L E C T I O N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N
PAGE 19
P O S T- DEBAT E, C L I N TON R E C EIV ES B I G G ES T B O O ST I N N U MBERS A C R O SS VA R IOUS P O L LS
Source: Five Thirty Eight, October 2015
Change in candidate support, pre- to post-debatePOLLSTER Clinton SandersABC/Washington Post +11 -4CNN/ORC -1 +5Emerson +15 -9Monmouth +4 -5Morning Consult +2 +2NBC/WSJ +5 -5Average +6.0 -2.7
PAGE 20Source: Huffpollster, October 2015
W I T H OUT B I D E N I N T H E R A C E , C L I N TON’ S L E A D O V E R S A N D ERS G R O W S
With Biden Without BidenPOLLSTER Clinton Sanders Biden Clinton Sanders
ABC/Post 54% 23% 16% 64% 25%Monmouth University 48% 21% 17% 57% 24%NBC/WSJ 49% 29% 15% 58% 33%CNN 45% 29% 18% 56% 33%YouGov/ Economist 48% 23% 20% 59% 29%CBS 46% 27% 16% 56% 32%Average 48% 25% 58% 29%Clinton-Sanders margin +23 +29
PAGE 21
T H E M O N E Y R A C E
Source: The Washington Post, courtesy of Federal Election Commission filings, reports by independent groups
PAGE 22
T H E P R E D I CTI ON M A R K ETS
Source: PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster
6%
10%
17%
19%
34%
Ted Cruz
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
Donald Trump
Marco Rubio
PredictWise Chance of Winning Republican Nomination
0%
13%
88%
Martin O'Malley
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
PredictWise Chance of Winning Democratic Nomination
Only showing above 5%
PAGE 23
B U T D O E S I T E V E N M AT T ER: A P L U R AL ITY O F A M E R ICA NS D O N ’ T P L A N O N V O T I NG I N T H E P R I M ARI ES AT A L L
Vote in Democratic Primary
31%
Wait until the general election
34%Do not plan to vote at all, 1%
Not sure3%
Vote in Republican Primary
31%
If there were a primary election in your state, would you vote in the Democratic
primary, the Republican primary, or would you wait to vote in the general election?
Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, October 15-18, 2015
PAGE 24
48% 48%47% 46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jeb
Bush
Hilla
ry C
linto
n
Ben
Cars
on
Ben
Cars
on
Ben
Cars
on
Hilla
ry C
linto
n
Bern
ie S
ande
rs
Hilla
ry C
linto
n
Source: CNN / ORC Poll, October 14-17, 2015
45% 44%50%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jeb
Bush
Hilla
ry C
linto
n
Ben
Cars
on
Bern
ie S
ande
rs
Dona
ld T
rum
p
Joe
Bide
n
Dona
ld T
rum
p
Joe
Bide
n
C A R S ON P E R FORM S B E T T ER T H A N T R U MP I N P O T E NTI AL H E A D-T O - H EA D M AT CHUP S W I T H D E M O CRATI C C A N D IDATE S
PAGE 25
M O R E A M E RI CAN S E X P E CT C L I NTO N O V E R A N Y O T H E R C A N D ID ATE T O W I N T H E P R E S I DENC Y I N N O V E MB ER 2 0 1 6
Source: ABC News/ Washington Post Poll, October 15-18, 2015
37%
48%
7%
7%
20%
37%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Republican mentions
Democratic mentions
Bernie Sanders
Ben Carson
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
[Open Ended] Who do you expect to win the
presidency in November 2016?
PAGE 26
R E P U BL ICA NS M O R E L I K ELY T O B E E X T R E MELY/ VERY E N T H US IAS TIC A B O U T T H E U P C OM ING E L E C TI ON
Source: CNN Poll, October 14-17, 2015
68%
18%12%
58%
22% 21%
Extremely/Very enthusiastic Somewhat Enthusiastic Not too/Not at all enthusiastic
Republicans Democrats
How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in next year’s election – extremely enthusiastic, very
enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic?
PAGE 27Source: 2016 Election Central, courtesy of Hamilton Place Strategies
PAGE 28
E A R LY 2 0 1 6 P R I MA RY & C A U C US C A L E NDA R
Note: All dates tentative and subject to change prior to 2016
Date State
Monday, February 1, 2016 Iowa (caucus)Tuesday, February 9, 2016 New Hampshire (primary)Saturday, February 20, 2016 South Carolina (primary)Tuesday, February 23, 2016 Nevada (caucus)
Tuesday, March 1, 2016 Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas
Tuesday, March 15, 2016 Florida (primary)
95 DAYS UNTIL IOWA CAUCUS
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