Public Opinion Landscape: Economy 5.25.16

M a y 2 5 , 2 0 1 5

The Public’s Take –The Economy

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TA B L E O F C O N T E NTS

Slide

Current Economic Indicators 3

Economic Conditions and Views of the Future 4

Views of Obama and the Economy 12

Perceptions of Foreign Trade 16

The Economy and the Election 21

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U N E M PL OYM ENT R AT E H A S I M P R OV ED W H I L E O T H ER E C O NO MI C I N D I C ATOR S H AV E L A G G ED

INDICATOR LAST YEARMay 2015

NOW May 2016

Unemployment Rate 5.4% 5.0%

Inflation Rate -0.1% 1.1%

Stock Market (DJIA) 18,191.11 17,706.05

Consumer Confidence Index 95.2 94.2

U.S. Interest Rates .25% .50%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Yahoo! Finance, The Conference Board, Trading Economics

Data as of May 25th

E C O N O M I C C O N D I T I O N S A N D V I E W S O F T H E F U T U R E

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S T R O NG M A J O RI TY A R E W O R R I ED T H AT T H E U . S . W I L L S U F F E R A N O T HE R E C O N OMI C D O W N TUR N T H AT W I L L N E G ATI VELY A F F E CT T H E IR FA M I LY

31%

41%

20%

7%

1%

% Worried the U.S. Will Suffer Another Economic Downturn

Very worried Somewhat worried Not too worried Not at all worried Unsure

72% Worried

Source: GW Battleground Poll, April 17-20, 2016

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H A L F O F V O T E R S S T R O NGLY B E L I E VE T H AT T H E N E X T G E N E RAT IO N W I L L N O T B E B E T T E R O F F E C O N O MI CAL LY

50%

15%

8%

13%

15%

% Believe the Next Generation Will Be Better Off Economically

No, strongly No Unsure Yes Yes, strongly

65% No


Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17-27, 2016 PAGE 7

G O P V O T E R S, E S P EC IAL LY T R U MP S U P P ORT ERS , S AY L I F E I N T H E U . S . H A S G O T T E N W O R S E F O R P E O P L E L I K E T H E M

46%

66%

28%

75%

34%

22%

34%

19%

48%

13%

45%

53%

14%

10%

17%

8%

15%

18%

All voters

Republicans/Lean Republicans

Democrats/Lean Democrats

Trump Supporters

Clinton Supporters

Sanders Supporters

Compared with 50 Years Ago, Life for People Like You in America Is…

Worse Better Same

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, March 17-27, 2016 PAGE 8

B U T A M E R I CAN S’ V I E W S O F T H E E C O N O MY A R E A P P R OA CHI NG P R E - R ECES SI ON L E V E LS

How would you rate economic conditions in this country today… as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

22% 25%

56%68%

53% 53% 51%40% 36% 40% 33% 30% 28% 28%

44% 40%

32%25%

39% 38% 38%43% 48% 43%

45% 43% 45% 43%

29% 27%

10% 6% 6% 7% 9% 15% 14% 15% 19% 24% 24% 26%

4% 6% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3%

Mar 2006

June 2007

Mar 2008

Mar 2009

Mar 2010

Mar 2011

Mar 2012

Mar 2013

Dec 2013

Apr 2014

Oct 2014

May 2015

Dec 2015

Mar 2016

ExcellentGoodOnly fairPoor

Note: “DK/REF” results are not shown.

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S A N D ER S’ S U P PO RTER S O V E RW HEL MIN GLY B E L I EV E T H E U . S . E C O N OM IC S Y S TE M FAV O RS T H E P O W E RF UL

68%

54%

80%

61%

73%

91%

30%

44%

19%

38%

25%

9%

All voters



Trump Supporters

Clinton Supporters

Sanders Supporters

% of Voters Who Say Economic System in the U.S. …

Unfairly favors powerful interests Generally fair to most Americans

Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17-27, 2016

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A N D T H E R E I S A L A R G E PA R TI SAN D I V I DE O N V I E W S O F C O R P OR ATE P R O F I TS

57%

37%

75%

43%

69%

82%

39%

58%

22%

53%

27%

16%

All voters



Trump Supporters

Clinton Supporters

Sanders Supporters

% of Voters Who Say Business Corporations…

Make too much profit Make a fair and reasonable amount


Source: Gallup Poll, April 6-10, 2016 PAGE 11

10% 11%17% 21%

26% 30% 43% 40%

89% 88%81% 77%

71%66%

53%58%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

April 2009 April 2010 April 2011 April 2012 April 2013 April 2014 April 2015 April 2016

Good time

Bad time

A M E R I CAN S S L I G HT LY L E S S P O S I T IV E A B O U T F I N D IN G A J O B

Thinking about the job situation in America today, would you say that it is now a good time or a bad time to find a quality job?

V I E W S O F O B A M A A N D T H E E C O N O M Y

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O B A M A’ S J O B A P P R O VAL AT O R N E A R 5 0 % ; U P 4 - P O I NTS F R O M T H I S T I M E L A S T Y E A R

Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of May 24, 2016

Term52-Week High 53% May 7-9, 201652-Week Low 42% Dec 16-18, 2015

All-Time High 69% Jan 22-24, 2009All-Time Low 38% Sep 3-5, 2014

Term Avg to Date 48% Jan 20, 2009 –May 25, 2016

Current Quarter Avg to Date

51% Apr 20 – May 25,2016

Last Quarter Avg 49.5% Jan 20 – Apr 19, 2016

APPROVE 49.6%

DISAPPROVE 47.3%

Obama’s Overall Job Approval

65%57%

51% 48%

29%

Eisenhower (1960) Clinton (2000) Obama (2016) Reagan (1988) G.W. Bush (2008)

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O V E R AL L O B A MA’ S A P P R OVA L N E A R I NG T H AT O F C L I N TO N’S H A L F WAY T H R OU GH F I N A L Y E A R

Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in May of Final Year of 2nd Term

Weekly Approval Rating Average

May 16 – 22, 2016

Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

Source: HuffPost Pollster Average PAGE 15

45%42% 41%

48%51%

48%

The economy Health Care Foreign PolicyApprove Disapprove

O B A M A O N T H E I S S U E S

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing on the following issues?

P E R C E P T I O N S O F F O R E I G N T R A D E

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M A J O R IT Y O F A M E R I CA NS S T I L L S E E O P P O RT UNI TY I N F O R E I GN T R A D E

What do you think foreign trade means for America? Do you see foreign trade more as an opportunity for economic growth through increased U.S. exports or a threat to the economy from foreign imports?

Source: Gallup Poll, April 21-24, 2016

44%

53%

54%

56%51% 52% 49%

44%45%43% 41%44% 45% 46%

57% 54%58% 58%

48%

38%

35%

36%37% 39% 41%48%

46%48%

52%47% 45% 46%

35%38%33% 34%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Opportunity for economic growth Threat to the economy

Source: GW Battleground Poll, April 17-20, 2016 PAGE 18

B U T M O S T B E L I E VE I N T E RN ATI ONAL T R A D E D E A L S H AV E B E E N B A D F O R T H E U . S . E C O N O MY

27%

29%

44%Bad for the U.S. economy

Good for the U.S. economy

Not sure

NAFTA Has Been…

12%

13%

23%

50%Bad for the U.S. economy

Good for the U.S. economy

Not sure

International Trade Deals Have Been…

Have not had much impact

Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, March 19-22, 2016

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T R U M P S U P P ORTE RS V I E W F R E E T R A DE A G R EE MEN TS A S B A D F O R T H E U N I T ED S TATES

43%

53%

34%

67%

31%

38%

47%

38%

56%

27%

58%

55%

All voters


Democrats/Lean Demcorats

Trump Supporters

Clinton Supporters

Sanders Supporters

% of Voters Who Say Free Trade Agreements Have Been a Good/Bad Thing for the U.S.

Bad Thing Good Thing


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M A J O R IT Y O F A M E R I CA NS B E L I E VE O U R T R A D E P O L I C Y S H O UL D H AV E M O R E R E S TR ICT IO NS

12%

22%

65%More restrictions

Fewer restrictions

Not sure

U.S. Trade Policy Should Have…

Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, March 19-22, 2016

Generally speaking, do you think U.S. trade policy should

have more restrictions on imported foreign goods to

protect American jobs, or have fewer restrictions to enable

American consumers to have the most choices and the

lowest prices?

E C O N O M Y A N D T H E E L E C T I O N

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T H E E C O N O MY I S S E E N A S T H E M O S T I M P O RTA NT I S S U E F O R T H E N E X T P R E S I DENT T O A D D R ESS

19%

14%

11% 10%8%

6% 5% 5%3%

The economy

Dysfunction in

government

Foreign threats

Jobs Health care Social Security

Illegal immigration

The deficit Taxes

Most Important Issue for the Next President


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R E P U BL IC ANS A R E M U C H M O R E L I K E LY T O M E N T IO N T H E E C O N OM Y A S T H E M O S T I M P O RTANT P R O B LE M FA C I NG T H E U . S .

17% 16%

22%

8%

15%

16%

28%

23%

29%

14% 13%

15%

10%

12%

19%16% 17% 16%

14%

9%

14%

8%12%

4%

12% 13%11%

Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan '16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16

% Mentioning Economy as Most Important Problem

Republicans Independents Democrats

Source: Gallup Poll, May 4-8, 2016

Source: Gallup Poll, April 6-10, 2016 PAGE 24

I N D E P ENDE NTS M O S T C O N F ID ENT I N S A N D E RS O N E C O N OM Y

49% 56%68%

47% 43%30%

Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Donald Trump

Americans’ Confidence in Presidential Candidates to Handle the Economy

Only a little/Almost none Great deal/Fair amount

Republicans: 17%Independents: 46%Democrats: 74%



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T H E E C O N O MY D U R I NG P R E SI DE NTI AL E L E CT IO NS

§ The economy has reliably been one of the most important factors influencing a presidential election. § A strong economy helps to keep the party in power in power. § A weak economy tends to cause voters to want to change the residents of the White House.

§ But right now, the economy could be best described as moderately, perhaps deceptively, successful.§ Growth is lukewarm, but it has been consistent enough to create hundreds of thousands of new

jobs. Wages have not risen by much, and the uneven recovery has left segments of the population behind. But the overall unemployment rate is down to 5 percent. That’s unusual for a presidential election season — it has been at 5 percent or lower in only three of the 14 contests that have taken place since 1960.

§ The quiet strength of the economy may have an impact on the campaign.§ Jobs and economic growth will always matter to voters, but the lack of stark economic problems

may allow other issues and unconventional policies to rise to the forefront.

Source: New York Times.

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Public Opinion Landscape: Economy 5.25.16