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J a n u a r y 2 0 , 2 0 1 5 !
The Public’s Take – The State of the Union"
PAGE 2
TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S !
1. A l o o k b a c k a t 2 0 1 4 … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … !
2. P e r c e p t i o n s o f E c o n o m i c C o n d i t i o n s / V i e w s o f t h e
F u t u r e … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … !
3. P e r c e p t i o n s o f O b a m a & C o n g r e s s … … … … … … … … … . . !
4. P e r c e p t i o n s o f P o l i c y I s s u e s M o v i n g F o r w a r d … … … … . !
S L I D E !
3 !
!
11 !
1 6 !
2 6 !
PAGE 3!The Public’s Take: The State of the Union | January 20, 2015!
Y E A R I N R E V I E W !
PAGE 4!
Sources: www.conference-board.org./ www.tradingeconomics.com!
79.4! 78.3! 83.9! 81.7! 82.2! 86.4! 90.3! 93.4! 89! 94.1! 91! 92.6!
Jan-14! Feb-14! Mar-14! Apr-14! May-14! Jun-14! Jul-14! Aug-14! Sep-14! Oct-14! Nov-14! Dec-14!
U.S. Consumer Confidence!
2 0 1 4 : C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E A N D T H E S TO C K M A R K E T !
PAGE 5!
Indicator" Then (January 2014)! Now (December 2014)!
Unemployment Rate! 6.6%! 5.6% !
Inflation Rate! 1.6%! 1.3%!
Stock Market (DJIA)! 16,425.1! 18,053.71!
Consumer Confidence Index! 79.4! 92.6!
U.S. Interest Rates! .25%! .25%!
Consumer Price Index (CPI)! 234.59! 237.03!
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.tradingeconomics.com/ !
T H E Y E A R I N R E V I E W: E C O N O M I C I N D I C ATO R S !
PAGE 6!
P L U N G I N G O I L P R I C E S A N D P R I C E AT T H E P U M P !
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange; American Automobile Association!
PAGE 7!
Compared with other years, do you think that 2014 was one of the best years for the United States, above average, about average, below average, or one of the worst years for the United States? !
One of the best" Above average " About average" Below average" One of the worst"
1% ! 13% (+7)" 33% (+10)" 34% (-10)" 18% (-8)"
Source: NBC/WSJ survey/ *CBS News/NYT Poll!
End of 2014"Beginning of 2014"
T H E Y E A R I N R E V I E W: P E R C E P T I O N S O F T H E E C O N O M Y !
63%" 64%"
25%" 26%"
61%" 51%"
0%!
20%!
40%!
60%!
80%!
100%!
Country on Wrong Track! Economy is Getting Worse*! Economy is Bad*!
End of 2014"Beginning of 2014"
PAGE 8!
T H E Y E A R I N R E V I E W: P E R C E P T I O N S O F O B A M A !
Source: NBC/WSJ survey !
43%"
45%"
39%"
46%"
44%"
37%"35%!
40%!
45%!
50%!
Overall Job Approval Rating! Job Approval on the Economy! Job Approval on Foreign Policy!
PAGE 9
Source: Gallup Poll Data!
Obama Approval, Highest and Lowest Weekly Averages!
O B A M A’ S J O B A P P R O VA L S E T T L E S I N TO N A R R O W R A N G E T H R O U G H O U T 2 0 1 4 !
Highest weekly average" Lowest weekly average" Range"
%! %! (pct. pts)!
2014! 45! 40! 5!
2013! 54! 40! 14!
2012! 57! 44! 13!
2011! 51! 40! 11!
2010! 51! 43! 8!
2009! 67! 49! 18!
PAGE 10!
A F T E R 6 Y E A R S O F B E I N G V I E W E D A S T H E M O S T I M P O RTA N T P R O B L E M , T H E E C O N O M Y M O V E S TO S E C O N D !
Top ranked issue" Second ranked issue" Third ranked issue" Fourth ranked issue"
2014! Government (18%)! Economy (17%)! Unemployment (15%)! Healthcare (10%)!
2013! Economy (22%)! Government (20%)! Unemployment (16%)! Healthcare (10%)!
2012! Economy (31%)! Unemployment (25%)! Government (13%)! Federal deficit/debt (10%)!
2011! Economy (30%)! Unemployment (29%)! Government (12%)! Federal deficit/debt (12%)!
2010! Economy (29%)! Unemployment (27%)! Healthcare (13%)! Government (12%)!
2009! Economy (40%)! Unemployment (16%)! Healthcare (15%)! Government (7%)!
2008! Economy (39%)! Iraq (18%)! Gas prices (10%)! Healthcare (8%)!
2007! Iraq (33%)! Healthcare (10%)! Immigration (9%)! Government (8%)!
2006! Iraq (26%)! Immigration (10%)! Government (9%)! Economy (9%)!
2005! Iraq (22%)! Economy (11%)! Government (8%)! Terrorism (8%)!
2004! Iraq (22%)! Economy (19%)! Unemployment (14%)! Terrorism (14%)!
2003! Economy (27%)! Iraq (17%)! Unemployment (12%)! Terrorism (10%)!
2002! Terrorism (24%)! Economy (22%)! Iraq (9%)! Unemployment (7)!
2001! Economy (14%)! Terrorism (10%)! Ethics/moral decline (9%)! Education (9%)!
Source: Gallup Poll, annual averages of monthly results!
P E R C E P T I O N S O F E C O N O M I C C O N D I T I O N S / V I E W S O F T H E F U T U R E !
PAGE 11!The Public’s Take: The State of the Union | January 20, 2015!
PAGE 12!
Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 20, 2015!
The percentage of Americans saying the nation
is heading in the right direction hasn’t topped 50
in about a decade!
RIGHT DIRECTION 28.4%!
WRONG TRACK 61.4%!
M A J O R I T Y O F A M E R I C A N S C O N T I N U E TO F E E L T H E N AT I O N I S O N T H E W R O N G T R A C K !
PAGE 13!
B U T R I G H T N O W, P L U R A L I T Y T H I N K E C O N O M Y I S G E T T I N G B E T T E R ; M O S T AT T R I B U T E T H I S TO R E C E N T D E C R E A S E I N O I L P R I C E S !
Source: CBS News Poll, January 9-12, 2015!
Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?!
Do you think the recent decrease in the price of oil has made the U.S. economy better, worse, or has it not had
much effect on the U.S. economy?!
17%!
40%!
42%!
30%!
8%!
57%!
Worse"
No effect"
Better"
Worse"
Same"
Better"
Note: “Don’t know/Refused” results are not shown.!
PAGE 14!
A M A J O R I T Y O F A M E R I C A N S T H I N K E C O N O M Y H A S B E E N G R O W I N G O V E R T H E PA S T Y E A R !
Do you think the economy has been growing or shrinking over the past year?!
Source: Bloomberg Poll, December 3-5, 2014!
Growing"57%"
Shrinking"36%"
Not sure"7%"
PAGE 15!
B U T T H AT G R O W T H I S N O T PA RT I C U L A R LY S T R O N G !
Recovering strongly!
16%!
Recovering, but not strongly!
66%!
Not recovering!17%!
Don't know!1%!
Which of these best describes your opinion: The economy is…!
Source: Pew Research Poll, January 7-11, 2015!
P E R C E P T I O N S O F O B A M A & C O N G R E S S !
The Public’s Take: The State of the Union | January 20, 2015! PAGE 16!
PAGE 17
Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 20, 2015!
APPROVE 46.9%!
DISAPPROVE 49.1%!
Obama’s Overall Job Approval!
O B A M A B E G I N S 2 0 1 5 W I T H A J O B A P P R O VA L R AT I N G I N T H E M I D 4 0 S !
Approve" Disapprove"
%! %!
Fox! 42" 52!
Gallup! 46" 48!
CBS! 46" 46!
Pew! 47" 48!
ABC/WP! 50" 44!
NBC/WSJ! 46" 48!
Obama Approval – Six New National Polls!
69%!
57%!
48%! 46%!
36%!
Clinton (1999)! Eisenhower (1959)! Reagan (1987)! Obama (2015)! G.W. Bush (2007)!
PAGE 18
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data!
Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in January of Third Year of 2nd Term!
Weekly Approval Rating Average!
Jan 12 – 18 !
O V E R A L L O B A M A A P P R O VA L H I G H E R T H A N H I S P R E D E C E C E S S O R H E A D I N G I N TO 7 T H Y E A R !
PAGE 19!
45%!40%! 39%!
34%! 33%! 33%!
51%!58%!
53%!57%!
60%!56%!
The economy! Health care! Terrorism! Foreign policy! Immigration! Handling the Islamic extremist
group ISIS!
Approve! Disapprove!
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing on the following issues?!
O B A M A P O O R LY R AT E D O N A L L I S S U E S !
Source: Fox News Poll, January 11-13, 2015!
PAGE 20!
I M PA C T O F O B A M A’ S E C O N O M I C P O L I C I E S !
March 2009"
Dec"2009"
Sept"2010"
Oct"2011"
Oct "2012"
June 2013"
Jan"2015"
%! %! %! %! %! %! %!
Better! 14! 30! 27! 20! 33! 35! 38"
Worse! 15! 24! 32! 38! 35! 35! 28"
Not much of an effect! 64! 39! 36! 37! 27! 27! 30"
Too soon to tell/DK! 7! 7! 6! 5! 6! 3! 3"
Since taking office, Obama’s economic policies have made conditions…!
Source: Pew Research Poll, January 7-11, 2015!
PAGE 21!
S I N C E 2 0 1 2 , M O R E S E E O B A M A A S N O T TO U G H E N O U G H O N F O R E I G N P O L I C Y !
2%! 2%! 2%!5%!
3%!5%!
38%!
47%!
41%!
51%!54%! 55%!
51%!
41%! 42%!
37%! 36%! 37%!
0%!
10%!
20%!
30%!
40%!
50%!
60%!
Jun-09! Apr-10! Sep-12! Nov-13! Aug-14! Jan-15!
Too tough!Not tough enough!About right!
Source: Pew Research Poll, January 7-11, 2015!
Is Obama _________ when it comes to foreign policy and national security?!
Note: “Don’t know/Refused” results are not shown.!
PAGE 22!
C O N G R E S S B E G I N S 2 0 1 5 W I T H 1 6 % J O B A P P R O VA L , A N D A L M O S T H A L F D I S A P P R O V E O F G O P P L A N S !
40%! 49%! 11%!
Approve" Disapprove" DK"
Source: Gallup Poll, January 5-8, 2015, Pew Research Poll, January 7-11, 2015!
As best you can tell, do you approve or disapprove of Republican congressional leaders’ policies and plans for the future?!
PAGE 23!
A M E R I C A N S D I V I D E D O N W H I C H PA RT Y S H O U L D H AV E M O R E I N F L U E N C E , B U T M A J O R I T Y B E L I E V E T H E G O P W I L L !
Source: Gallup Poll, January 5-8, 2015, CBS News Poll, January 9-12, 2015!
9%!5%!
12%!
29%! 40%!
57%! 43%!
Don't know/No Answer! Same/Neither! Barack Obama! Republicans in Congress!
Over the next two years, who do you think will have more influence over the direction of the country…?!
Who do you want to have more influence over the direction the nation takes in the next year…?!
M O S T A M E R I C A N S L A C K C O N F I D E N C E T H AT O B A M A A N D C O N G R E S S C A N W O R K TO G E T H E R ; H U G E S H I F T F R O M S TA RT O F L A S T C O N G R E S S !
How confident are you that President Obama and the Republicans in Congress can work together to solve the country’s problems?!
Source: AP Poll, December 4-8, 2014!
48%!
13%!
52%!
86%!
Jan-11! Dec-14!
Confident!Not Confident!
PAGE 24!
PAGE 25!
I N C R E A S E D E X P E C TAT I O N F O R B I C K E R I N G I N T H E C O M I N G Y E A R !
41%!53%!
30%!50%!
30%! 23%! 22%!
50%!39%!
59%!39%!
63%!66%! 71%!
Jan-01! Jan-02! Jan-05! Jan-09! Jan-11! Jan-13! Jan-15!
Work together more to solve problems! Bicker and oppose one another more than usual!
This coming year, do you think Republicans and Democrats in Washington will work together more to solve problems OR do you think they will bicker and oppose one another more than usual?!
Source: Pew Research Poll, January 7-11, 2015!
P E R C E P T I O N S O F P O L I C Y I S S U E S M O V I N G F O R W A R D !
PAGE 26!The Public’s Take: The State of the Union | January 20, 2015!
PAGE 27!
P U B L I C ’ S P O L I C Y P R I O R I T I E S R E F L E C T C H A N G I N G C O N D I T I O N S AT H O M E A N D A B R O A D !
Source: Pew Research Poll, January 7-11, 2015!
78%!
9%!
67%!
20%!
Domestic policy! Foreign policy!
2014! 2015!
Obama should focus more on…!
PAGE 28!
E C O N O M Y, T E R R O R I S M , J O B S R A N K H I G H F O R B O T H R E P U B L I C A N S A N D D E M O C R AT S !
Source: Pew Research Poll, January 7-11, 2015!
Democrats" Top Priority"
%!
Improving the educational system! 77!
Strengthening the nation’s economy! 74!
Improving the job situation! 72!
Defending the country from terrorism! 71!
Dealing with problems of poor & needy! 70!
Reducing health care costs! 70!
Republicans" Top Priority"
%!
Defending the country from terrorism! 87!
Strengthening the nation’s economy! 75!
Reducing the budget deficit! 72!
Strengthening the U.S. military! 71!
Improving the job situation! 70!
Making Social Security system sound! 65!
PAGE 29!
M A J O R I T Y O F A M E R I C A N S B E L I E V E O V E R - R E G U L AT I O N R AT H E R T H A N TO O L I T T L E I S T H E B I G G E R P R O B L E M FA C I N G T H E U S TO D AY !
Over-regulation!
54%!
Too little regulation!
38%!
DK/ NA!8%!
What do you think is the bigger problem in this country – over-regulation that may interfere with economic growth or too little regulation that may create an unequal distribution of wealth?!
Source: The New York Times Poll, December 4-7, 2014!
PAGE 30!
M O S T A M E R I C A N S W O U L D P R E F E R C H A N G E S TO T H E A C A ; M A J O R I T Y S U P P O RT S E M P L O Y E R M A N D AT E !
Source: Fox News Poll, January 11-13, 2015!
Yes!66%!
No!30%!
Don't know!4%!
Which one of the following comes closest to what you would like to see lawmakers do with the Affordable Care
Act, also known as Obamacare – would you like lawmakers to…?!
Do you think people who work thirty hours a week should receive guaranteed health insurance from their
employer, or not?!
33%!
27%!
19%!16%!
Repeal it entirely!
Repeal parts of the
law!
Expand it! Leave it as is!
A M A J O R I T Y O F A M E R I C A N S S U P P O RT S P O L I C Y T H AT G I V E S I L L E G A L I M M I G R A N T S A PAT H WAY TO C I T I Z E N S H I P !
Send all back, 17%!
Guest worker program, 16%!
Pathway to citizenship,
63%!
Don't know, 3%!
Source: Fox News Poll, December 7-9, 2014!
Which of the following comes closest to your view about what government policy should be toward illegal immigrants currently in the United States? Should the government…!
PAGE 31!
PAGE 32!
A M A J O R I T Y O F A M E R I C A N S T H I N K O B A M A S H O U L D S I G N L E G I S L AT I O N A P P R O V I N G K E Y S TO N E X L P I P E L I N E !
65%!
22%!
Sign! Veto!
Do you think President Obama should sign or veto legislation approving the building of the Keystone XL Pipeline that would transport oil from Canada to refineries in the United States!
Source: Fox News Poll, January 11-13, 2015!
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202.337.0808 | GPG.COM!
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The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs.! !Our in-house research team is a data- and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. ! !On top of a full complement of quantitative and qualitative public opinion research services, we also routinely put together a variety of presentations from the most recent national surveys.!
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