Public Opinion Landscape - Democratic National Convention

Election 2012: A Brief Overview and Analysis

September 5, 2012

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..3

2. Views of Obama..…………………………………………………………….…...6

3. 2012: General Election Preview………………..…………………………16

4. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race ……………..….…….…18

5. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……23

6. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...26

Slide

3

Political Context

CHALLENGING ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE

• Tougher political, economic, and foreign policy environment

• Post-2010, narrower field of battleground states • New Republican governors in Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania,

New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Michigan

• Continuing high unemployment • No President has been re-elected since WWII when

unemployment was above 7.5%

Clinton August 1996

Bush August 2004

Obama August 2012

Satisfied 38 44 23

Unsatisfied 57 55 77

State of the Nation

4

Source: Gallup Poll, August 9-12, 2012

Compared to when Barack Obama became president – do you think that the country is better off, worse off, or in about the same place?

27%

42%

31%

Same place

Worse off

Better off

Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, August 16-20, 2012

MOST VOTERS HAVE A NEGATIVE PERCEPTION OF THE ECONOMY

5

Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor?

Note: “No opinion” results are not shown. Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, August 22-25, 2012

1%

14%

39% 45%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

Excellent Good Not so Good Poor

POSITIVE 15%

NEGATIVE 84%

6

Obama

AMERICANS DIVIDED OVER OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB PERFORMANCE; WEAKER ON DOMESTIC PRIORITIES, STRONGER ON FOREIGN POLICY

7

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling…?

Source: Gallup Poll, August 27 – Sept 2, 2012

44% 47%

9%

Overall Job Approval Approve Disapprove No opinion

Issue NET APPROVE

NET DISAPPROVE

Terrorism 58% 35% Education 49% 43% Foreign Affairs 48% 45% Immigration 38% 54% Creating jobs 37% 58% The economy 36% 60% The federal budget deficit 30% 64%

Source: Gallup Poll, August 9-12, 2012

68%

60% 57%

52%

44% 39% 37%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Eisenhower(1956)

Clinton(1996)

Reagan(1984)

G.W. Bush(2004)

Obama(2012)

G. Bush(1992)

Carter (1980)

8

OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL ABOVE CARTER / AND BUSH SR., BUT BELOW 50%

Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in early September of Re-Election Year

Weekly Approval Rating Average

Aug 27 – Sept 2, 2012

9

JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION


Presidential Job Approval January March June October

2012: Barack Obama 44% 46% 47% ?

2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50%

1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58%

1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33%

1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58%

1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32%

1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32%

1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59%

1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74%

Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election

President’s in red lost re-election

Obama Averages 45% Job Approval in August

CT

JOB APPROVAL RATING IS 50% OR HIGHER IN 12 STATES AND D.C.

10

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH

NH VT

DC MD

DE NJ

RI

MA

January – June 2012

42% and below

Above 50%

42% - 50%

Job Approval

Electoral Votes

Above 50% 175

42%-50% 243 42% and

Below 120

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MAJORITY FEEL OBAMA’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE ECONOMY. HOWEVER, 45% DON’T THINK HIS POLICIES WILL EVER HELP THE ECONOMY

Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, July 11-16, 2012

Note: “Made economy worse (vol.)” and “DK/NA” results not shown

Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies: 1. They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, OR 2. They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, OR 3. They are not improving the economy and probably never will.

45%

34%

17%

Not improving and never will

Not improved but will in time

Improving economy 51%

AMERICANS STILL BLAME BUSH MORE THAN OBAMA FOR ECONOMY

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Who do you think is more responsible for the country’s current economic problems – (Barack Obama) or (George W. Bush)?

54% 49%

54%

29% 34% 32%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12

Bush

Obama

Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, August 22-25, 2012 Note: “Both (vol.),” “Neither (vol.),” and “No opinion” results are not shown.

13

Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, August 16-20, 2012

MAJORITY OF VOTERS FEEL OBAMA IS GENERALLY IN THE MAINSTREAM WITH MOST AMERICANS’ THINKING

When it comes to his approaches to issues, would you say that Barack Obama is in the mainstream of most Americans’ thinking, or is out of step with most Americans’ thinking?

AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS 54%

44%

In the Mainstream Out of Step

July-08 In the Mainstream

Out of Step

Barack Obama 60% 29%

COMPARE TO:

Aug-12 In the Mainstream

Out of Step

Mitt Romney 44% 51%

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Source: Fox News Poll, August 5-7, 2012

FOUR IN TEN VOTERS THINK OBAMA IS TOO LIBERAL

Do you think Barack Obama’s positions on the issues are too liberal, too conservative or about right?

AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS

TOO LIBERAL

41%

TOO CONSERVATIVE

7% ABOUT RIGHT 46%

DON’T KNOW

5%

Mitt Romney

Too liberal 14%

Too conservative 34%

About right 40%

Don’t know 13%

COMPARE TO:

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Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data

ROMNEY’S POPULARITY STAYS LOW, OBAMA IS VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY

UNFAVORABLE 45.6% FAVORABLE 49.9%

UNFAVORABLE 47.4% FAVORABLE 44.7%

As of September 5, 2012 Before GOP Convention Favorable: 40.7 Unfavorable: 47.2

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2012 – General Election Preview

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PRESIDENCY, CONGRESS, GOVERNORSHIPS

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Republicans Democrats

240** 190***

+50 -

All 435 seats being contested. Democrats need to win 25 seats from the Republicans to gain control of the House.

House:

Senate: Republicans Democrats

47 53*

- +6

33 seats being contested. Republicans need to win 4 seats from the Democrats to gain control of the Senate.

Presidency: Democratic incumbent Barack Obama will be seeking a second term in office versus Mitt Romney, the Republican opponent, seeking to become the 45th president of the United States.

Governor: 11 governorships being contested.

* 51 Democrats + 2 Independents ** 2 seats are vacant (MI-11, KY-4) *** 3 seats are vacant (NJ-10, WA-1, CA-18)

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Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race

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AFTER GOP CONVENTION, POLLS SHOW THE RACE IS TIED

Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data

Sept 5, 2008 %

Obama 46.6

McCain 44.0

Obama +2.6

Sept 5, 2004 %

Bush 49.3

Kerry 43.0

Bush +6.3

A Look Back Four Years Ago Today

Eight Years Ago Today

Source: Real Clear Politics

As of September 5, 2012

OBAMA 46.2%

ROMNEY 46.6%

+0.4

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GOP CONVENTION EVOKES LUKEWARM REACTION

Source: Gallup Poll

Romney Obama

Pre-convention (Aug 24-27) 47% 46%

Post-convention (Aug 31 – Sep 3) 46% 47%

More likely Less likely No difference / Don’t know

National Adults 40% 38% 22%

Republicans 83% 6% 11%

Independents 36% 33% 30%

Democrats 9% 74% 18%

Does what you saw or read of this week’s Republican convention make you more likely or less likely to vote for Mitt Romney?

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CANDIDATE SUPPORT TYPICALLY UP FIVE POINTS AFTER CONVENTION


Democratic candidate

Post-Dem. Convention

bounce

Republican candidate

Post-Rep. convention

bounce

2012 Obama ??? Romney -1

2008 Obama 4 McCain 6

2004 Kerry -1 G.W. Bush 2

2000 Gore 8 G.W. Bush 8

1996 Clinton 5 Dole 3

1992 Clinton 16 G.H.W. Bush 5

1988 Dukakis 7 G.H.W. Bush 6

1984 Mondale 9 Reagan 4

1980 Carter 10 Reagan 8

1976 Carter 9 Ford 5

1972 McGovern 0 Nixon 7

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AMERICANS GIVE ROMNEY THE EDGE ON TWO PERSONAL DIMENSIONS AFTER CONVENTION

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to Barack Obama or more to Mitt Romney?

Source: CNN/ORC Poll, August 31 – Sept 2, 2012 Note: “Both (vol.),” “Neither (vol.),” and “No opinion” results are not shown.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

46% 43%

49% 48%

45% 43%

48% 47%

39% 43%

53% 49%

31% 36%

60% 56%

Is a strong and decisive leader

Has an optimistic vision for the

country’s future

Is in touch with the problems facing

middle class Americans today

Is in touch with the problems facing women today

Before GOP Convention

After GOP Convention







Obama Romney

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Battleground States

24

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH

3 12

7

55 6

4 3

6

11 5

9

3

3

5

4

3

4

38

29

6

7

10

6

10

6

8 6 9 16

29

9 15 13

11

20 11

10 16

18 20

8 5

THE ELECTORAL MAP

Electoral Count (as shown):

Romney: 191 Obama: 221 Toss-Up: 126

VT 3

NH 4

RI 4

NJ 14

CT 7

DE 3

MD 10

DC 3

MA 11

Source: Real Clear Politics (as of August 31, 2012)

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Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of September 5, 2012)

OR

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH

Obama: 49% Romney: 46%

(7/24-8/26)

NV

VA

FL

CO

IA MI

OH

NC

OF THE TEN TOSS-UP STATES, OBAMA LEADS OR IS TIED IN ALL BUT ONE, YET LEADS ARE SLIM

(7/31-9/2)



(5/22-8/26)

(8/13-8/21)


(8/13-9/2)



(8/13-8/23)

Romney: 47% Obama: 45%

(8/22-9/2)


(8/13-9/2)

WI

(8/16-9/2)


(6/20-8/12)


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Battle for Congress

2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH

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Likely Dem (3) Lean Dem (5) Toss-Up (7) Lean Rep (2) Likely Rep (1) ME* (Open) –

Republican HI (Open) – Democrat

MO (McCaskill) – Democrat

AZ (Open) – Republican

NE (Open) – Democrat

PA (Casey) – Democrat

FL (Nelson) – Democrat

MT (Tester) – Democrat

IN (Open) – Republican

MI (Stabenow) – Democrat

OH (Brown) – Democrat

VA (Open) – Democrat

CT (Open) – Democrat

WI (Open) – Democrat

NM (Open) – Democrat

ND (Open) - Democrat

MA (Brown) – Republican

NV (Heller) – Republican

Source: Roll Call, as of September 5, 2012 *Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if he wins the open Maine seat

Democrats need to win 3 Toss-Up seats to retain control of the Senate if they pick up a seat in ME, while losing a seat in NE.

LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES

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Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of September 5, 2012)

OR

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH

(8/20)

Rehberg : 47% Tester: 43%

MT

Heller: 47% Berkley: 42%

(7/24-8/26)

(8/15-8/21)

Thompson: 51% Baldwin: 43%

(8/22-8/29)

McCaskill: 48% Akin: 41%

Kaine: 46% Allen: 46%

(7/31-8/23)

(6/13-6/25)

King: 53% Summers: 25%

Dill: 8%

Brown: 44%

Warren: 43%

(5/7-8/19)

WI

NV

MO VA

ME

MA

Nelson: 46% Mack: 40

(8/15-9/2)

FL

NM

Heinrich: 49% Wilson: 42%

(7/9-8/21)

ND

(5/3-7/11)

Berg: 49% Heitkamp: 44%

2012 HOUSE OUTLOOK

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Source: HuffPost, as of September 4, 2012 218 Seats Needed for Majority

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GPG Research

GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.

GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.

For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:

Joel Johnson ([email protected]) or David Cantor ([email protected])

News & Politics

Public Opinion Landscape - Democratic National Convention