The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 – Super Tuesday

Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis

March 1, 2016

G P G P E R S P E C T I V E

PAGE 3

I N S I G HTS A N D E X P E C TATION S

• Can Bernie keep it close and cause some problems?• He needs some wins – VT, MA,

MN• He needs to grow his vote with

African-Americans and Latinos

• Can Hillary fix some problems?• She needs to improve with

women voters, white voters, and younger voters

• Has Marco moved up?• He needs to show he can close

the gap with Trump; Cruz and Kasich don’t help

• Ted needs Texas• If Cruz can’t carry his home

state, what is his path?

• Can Trump run the table?• A thumping by Trump could

begin to close the deal

The GOP nominee Hillary Clinton fears the most is Marco Rubio. He is perceived by many to be the Republicans’ best hope for winning the White House. But for that to happen, the GOP race needs to quickly become a two-man race between Rubio and Trump. The longer Cruz and Kasich remain in the race, the more likely Trump solidifies his hold on the GOP nomination.

Source: The Glover Park Group

PAGE 4

O N L I NE C O N VER SATI ON S P I K ES C A U SED B Y T H E G O P D E B AT ES

Timeframe analyzed: February 21 - 28, 2016 Using Brandwatch

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

21-Feb 22-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 27-Feb 28-Feb

Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio

59%20%

20%

Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio

Share of VoiceDaily Digital Conversation Volume

n= 2,193,930

GOP Debates

Build-up for GOP Debates

PAGE 5

S P I K E L E E ’ S E N D ORS EME NT O F S A N D ER S, “ W H I CH H I L LA RY” C A M PAIG N A N D C L I N TON’ S W I N I N S O U T H C A R OL INA D R I VE O N L I NE C O N VER SATI ONS

Timeframe analyzed: February 21 - 28, 2016 Using Brandwatch

400004500050000550006000065000700007500080000

21-Feb 22-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 27-Feb 28-FebBernie Sanders Hillary Clinton

Spike Lee endorses Sanders#Which Hillary attack

campaign flares up

Clinton wins South Carolina Primary

49% 51%

Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders

Share of VoiceDaily Digital Conversation Volume

n= 894,986

2 0 1 6 – E L E C T I O N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :R E P U B L I CA N N O M I N A T I O N

PAGE 7

R E P U BL ICA N PAT H T O T H E N O M I NATI ON

Phase 1 – Winnowing the FieldIowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada

Phase 2 – Super Tuesday (SEC Primary)653 Delegates (26% of all delegates)

Phase 3 – March 15, Winner-take-all Begins

Phase 4 – March 16 – June 7Final Primary Voting

Phase 5 – RNC Convention, July 18 – 21, 2016

Key Dates

Date Number of Delegates States

March 1 653 AL, AK, AR, CO, GA, MA, MN, OK, TN, TX, VT, VA

March 15 367 FL, IL, MO, Northern Mariana Islands, NC, OH

April 26 172 CT, DE, MD, PA, RI

June 7 331 CA, MT, NJ,NM, SD

PAGE 8

G O P R E S U LTS F R O M T H E F I R S T P H A SE

Source: NYTimes.com

Candidate % of Votes

Ted Cruz 28%

Donald Trump 24%

Marco Rubio 23%

Ben Carson 9%

Rand Paul 5%

Jeb Bush 3%

Carly Fiorina 2%

John Kasich 2%

Mike Huckabee 2%

Chris Christie 2%

Rick Santorum 1%


Donald Trump 35%

John Kasich 16%

Ted Cruz 12%

Jeb Bush 11%

Marco Rubio 11%

Chris Christie 7%

Carly Fiorina 4%

Ben Carson 2%


Donald Trump 33%

Marco Rubio 23%

Ted Cruz 22%

Jeb Bush 8%

John Kasich 8%

Ben Carson 7%


Donald Trump 50%

Marco Rubio 24%

Ted Cruz 21%

John Kasich 5%

Ben Carson 4%

Iowa Caucus New Hampshire Primary South Carolina Primary Nevada Caucus

PAGE 9

T R U M P I S W I N N I NG T H E D E L E GATE R A C E S O FA R , B U T T H E RE’ S S T I L L A L O N G WAY T O G OThe more delegates Cruz or any others win in the SEC primaries on Super Tuesday, the greater the odds that neither Rubio nor Trump will win 1,237 delegates by June, raising the prospect of a contested convention in Cleveland.

Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Carson

Total 82 18 15 6 4

Iowa Results 7 8 7 1 3

New Hampshire Results 11 3 2 4 0

South Carolina Results 50 0 0 0 0

Nevada Results 14 7 6 1 1

Current Delegate Count Delegates Won

2,472 Delegates to the Convention168 RNC Members/Automatic Delegates (6.8%)

1,237 Needed to Win

82

18

15

6

4

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Donald Trump

Ted Cruz

Marco Rubio

John Kasich

Ben Carson

Source: NYTimes.com

PAGE 10

T R U M P H A S L E D I N N AT I ONA L P O L L I NG S I N C E S E P T EMBE RTrump has been extremely resilient despite pundits constantly predicting his demise. He’s been at least 35 percent and growing for several months now.

Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Feb, 2016

2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 7%6% 5% 6% 6% 8% 13%

18% 17%

11%8% 6%

9% 10%15%

10% 17%

5%

15%

31%28% 28%

34%39%

43%

10% 8%

14%17%

21%

14%8% 9%

June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2016 Republican Primary PreferenceAmong Republican and Republican leaning voters

Kasich Cruz Rubio Trump Carson

Source: NBC News/Survey Monkey Poll, February 8-14, 2016 PAGE 11

W H E R E D O B U S H S U P P ORT ERS G O N O W ?Not exactly a solid voting bloc, most of these voters are expected to gravitate towards other more moderate candidates such as Rubio or Kasich, although some will go to Trump and Cruz.

19%

16%

12% 11%9%

23%

Marco Rubio

John Kasich

Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Ben Carson

Don't know

Bush Supporters Second Choice

60%

43%

34%

33%

26%

16%

34%

43%

46%

49%

51%

35%

6%

13%

18%

18%

20%

47%

4%

Ted Cruz

Ben Carson

Donald Trump

Marco Rubio

Jeb Bush

John Kasich

Very conservative Somewhat conservative Moderate Liberal

Ideology of Candidate Supporters in South Carolina

Source: NY Times/Edison Research South Carolina Exit Polls

2 0 1 6 – E L E C T I O N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N

PAGE 13

D E M O CRAT IC PAT H T O T H E N O M I NAT ION

Phase 1 – Winnowing the FieldIowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina

Phase 2 – Early March1,389 Delegates (29% of all delegates)

Phase 3 – Late March1,113 Delegates (23% of all delegates)

Phase 4 – April – June Final Primary Voting

Phase 5 – DNC Convention, July 25 – 28, 2016

Key Dates

Date Number of Delegates States

March 1 865AL, American Samoa, AR, CO, GA, MA, MN,

OK, TN, TX, VT, VA

March 15 691 FL, IL, MO, NC, OH

April 19 247 NY

April 26 384 CT, DE, MD, NE, RI

June 7 695 CA, MT, ND, NJ, NM, SD

PAGE 14

R E S U LTS F R O M T H E F I R S T P H A SE

Source NY Times


Hillary Clinton 49.9%

Bernie Sanders 49.6%

Martin O’Malley 0.6%

Iowa Caucus New Hampshire Primary South Carolina PrimaryNevada Caucus










PAGE 15

S U P P ORT F R O M T H E S U P ERD ELEG ATES G I V ES C L I NTO N A S I G N I FIC ANT L E A D , B U T S H E S T I L L N E E DS A L O T M O R E D E L E GAT ES T O W I N T H E N O M I N ATIO N

Source NY Times

91

65

453

20

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Clinton

Sanders

Delegates Superdelegates

Total: 544

Total: 85

Clinton Sanders

Total 91 65

Iowa Results 23 21

New Hampshire Results 9 15

Nevada Results 20 15

South Carolina Results 39 14

Pledged Delegates Won

4,763 Delegates to the Convention4,051 Pledged delegates

712 Superdelegates

2,382 Needed to Win (50% of total)

Current Delegate Count

PAGE 16

A LT H OUG H S A N DE RS H A S N A R R OWED T H E L E A D I N T H E P O L L S, P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS S T I L L FAV OR C L I N TON S I G N IF ICA NTLY

Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Feb, 2016

12%17% 18%

24% 25%30% 31% 34%

39%

60% 58%54%

47% 45%

55% 56% 55%51%

June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2016 Democratic Primary PreferenceAmong Democrats and Democratic leaning voters

Sanders Clinton

Source: PredictWise

97%

3%

Clinton Sanders

Chances of becoming the Democratic presidential nominee

S U P E R T U E S D A Y

PAGE 18

S U P E R T U E S DAY– W H AT ’S AT S TA K E F O R T H E G O P ?

Source: University of Virginia Center for Politics, The Green Papers

State Number of Delegates Voter Eligibility Delegate Selection

Alabama 50 Open Primary Proportional (20% threshold, 50% winner-take-all trigger)

Alaska 28 Closed Caucus Proportional (13% threshold)

Arkansas 40 Closed Primary Proportional (15% threshold, 50% winner-take-all trigger)

Colorado 37 Closed Caucus No delegates will be bound by the precinct caucuses

Georgia 76 Open Primary Proportional (20% threshold, 50% winner-take-all trigger)

Massachusetts 42 Modified Primary Proportional (5% threshold)

Minnesota 38 Open Caucus Proportional (10% threshold, 85% winner-take-all trigger)

Oklahoma 43 Closed Primary Proportional (15% threshold, 50% winner-take-all trigger)

Tennessee 58 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold, 66.7% winner-take-all trigger)

Texas 155 Open Primary Proportional (20% threshold, 50% winner-take-all trigger)

Vermont 16 Open Primary Proportional (20% threshold, 50% winner-take-all trigger)

Virginia 49 Open Primary Proportional (no threshold)

PAGE 19

S U P E R T U E S DAY- S TATE O F T H E R A C E

Source: Real Clear Politics polling averages

TexasCruz: 36%Trump: 27%Rubio: 19%

GeorgiaTrump: 36%Rubio: 22%Cruz: 21%

OklahomaTrump: 31%Cruz: 23%Rubio: 21%

AlabamaTrump: 38%Rubio: 20%Carson: 15%

Virginia Trump: 37%Rubio: 22%Cruz: 18%

MassachusettsTrump: 45%Rubio: 18%Kasich: 15%

VermontTrump: 32%Rubio: 17%Cruz: 11%States where

Trump is leading

States where Cruz is leading

States where there isn’t enough recent polling to say who is leading

PAGE 20

S U P E R T U E S DAY– W H AT ’S AT S TA K E F O R T H E D E M O CRAT S?

Source: The Cook Political Report, The Green Papers

Pledged delegate counts for each state

State Number of Delegates Voter Eligibility Delegate Selection

Alabama 53 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold)Arkansas 32 Closed Primary Proportional (15% threshold)Colorado 66 Closed Caucus Proportional (15% threshold)Georgia 102 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold)

Massachusetts 91 Modified Primary Proportional (15% threshold)Minnesota 77 Open Caucus Proportional (15% threshold)Oklahoma 38 Closed Primary Proportional (15% threshold)Tennessee 67 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold)

Texas 222 Closed Primary Proportional (15% threshold)Vermont 16 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold)Virginia 65 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold)

PAGE 21

C L I N TON I S P O L L I NG B E T T ER I N A L M O ST E V E R Y S U P ER T U E S DAY S TATE

TXClinton: 61%Sanders: 33%

GAClinton: 63%Sanders: 28%

MAClinton: 47%Sanders: 45%

VAClinton: 55%Sanders: 36%

TNClinton: 59%Sanders: 33%

ALClinton: 65%Sanders: 27%

OKClinton: 44%Sanders: 40%

ARClinton: 57%Sanders: 29%

VTSanders: 85%Clinton: 10%States where

Sanders is leading

States where Clinton is leading

Source: Real Clear Politics polling averages

States where there isn’t enough recent polling to say who is leading

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com, Washington Post PAGE 22

S U P E R T U E S DAY P R E DI CTI ONSDemocrats¨ Clinton will likely pick up a majority of delegates from the southern states.¨ Oklahoma may be Sanders’ best chance at an upset because it is semi-Midwestern.¨ Sanders will win Vermont by a big margin.¨ Close races in Minnesota, Colorado, and Massachusetts; Sanders will need to win these to keep nomination hopes

alive.¨ If Clinton wins in all the states she’s projected to, it makes the path to a Sanders nomination very difficult.

Republicans¨ A big test for Rubio, where he will need to meet tough viability thresholds in southern states like Texas and Georgia,

as well as show strength among more moderate Republican voters in blue states like Massachusetts and Vermont. ¨ Texas is a must-win for Cruz. Cruz could take all 155 delegates with majority wins across the state and its

congressional districts. But a close win could sap his momentum, and a loss would likely end the Cruz run. ¨ Except for Texas, expectations for Trump are high across Super Tuesday states. A near sweep by Trump will mean

that all of his opponents will have lost to him in more than a dozen contests, and may find it harder to dodge the label “loser.”

P O S T - S U P E R T U E S D A Y

PAGE 24

W H AT ’S N E X T F O R R E P UB LIC ANS?The single most critical day of the Republican race overall will be on March 15th, when four large states (Florida, Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri) will award a total of 292 delegates.

65% of GOP delegates will have been awarded by the end of March.

The rules governing the national convention require a candidate to have won a majority of delegates in eight states or territories to be eligible for the nomination – so at some point, a non-Trump candidate has to start finishing in first place.

Florida, Ohio and Arizona are winner-take-all contests and may be anybody’s best shot to stem Trump’s momentum.

State Date Delegates

Florida March 15 99

Ohio March 15 66

Arizona March 22 58

Total --- 223

PAGE 25

W H AT ’S N E X T F O R D E M OCR ATS?

March 15th is not only a big day for Republicans. The Democrats have 691 delegates up for grabs that day. However, there are no “winner-takes-all” states like the Republicans have. This means that the states assign delegates proportionally.

Even if Clinton wins all the states she’s projected to win on Super Tuesday, Sanders still has a shot at the nomination. Although March 1st is very southern-heavy, the Sanders’ campaign is looking forward to states like Michigan, Ohio, and Missouri that have large populations and the possibility of more support.

State Date Delegates

Michigan March 8 148

Ohio March 15 159

Missouri March 15 84

Total --- 391

PAGE 26

I M P O RTAN T P O S T S U P ER T U E SDAY D AT ES ( D E B AT ES/ PRI MARI ES/ CAUC USES )

Upcoming Debate Schedule

Date Republican Democrat

March 3rd ✔

March 6th ✔

March 9th ✔

March 10th ✔

Primaries/Caucuses in March

Date Republican Democrat

March 5th KS, KY, LA, ME KS, LA, NE

March 6th PR ME

March 8th HI, ID, MI, MS MI, MS

March 10th VI

March 12th GU, DC MP

March 15th FL, IL, MO, NC, MP, OH

FL, IL, MO, NC, OH

March 22nd AS, AZ, UT AZ, ID, UT

March 26th AK, HI, WA

Big day for delegates: 691delegates for

Democrats and367 delegates for

Republicans.

Source: Donald Trump image: By Michael Vadon - https://www.flickr.com/photos/80038275@N00/20724666936/, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=45369889; Hillary Clinton image: By Hillary for Iowa - https://www.flickr.com/photos/hillaryforiowa/17135176916/, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=40759881; Bernie Sanders image: Gage Skidmore [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

PAGE 27

P L U R AL ITY O F V O T E RS D R E A D WAT C HING T R U MP O N T E L E V ISI ON F O R T H E N E X T F O U R Y E A RS I F E L E C TE D

40%31%

12%

Whoever is elected president will be on television constantly for at least four years. Thinking about ALL of the candidates currently running for president, which ONE would you MOST DREAD watching on television for four years?

1025 F Street NW, 9th FloorWashington, DC 20004

121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010

202.337.0808 | GPG.COM

GPG ResearchThe Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs.

Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it.

For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:

Jason Boxt ([email protected])

News & Politics

The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 – Super Tuesday