Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration

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  • 1.The Public Opinion Landscape Inauguration Edition January 18, 2013

2. TABLE OF CONTENTS Slide1. A Look Back at 2012....22. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future..103. Perceptions of Obama & Congress .164. Perceptions of Policy Issues Moving Forward....27 1 3. Year in Review: 2012Year in Review: 2012 4. PUBLICS TOP STORIES OF 2012: ECONOMY NEVER FAR FROM THE TOPThe election was the most closely followed% Followedstory for most of 2012StoryVery Closely% FollowedFiscal Cliff negotiations (Nov 30-Dec 2)* 40%StoryVery CloselyObama on gay marriage (May 10-13) 37% 2012 election (Nov 8-11)* 60%Trayvon Martin killing (Mar 22-25)* 35% Newtown, CT shooting (Dec 16) 57% Hurricane Sandy (Nov 1-4)*53%Deadly Midwest storms (Mar 1-4) 33% Price of gas (Mar 15-18)* 52%Summer Olympics (Aug 6-12)31% Aurora, CO shooting (Jul 19-22)*48%Hurricane Isaac (Aug 31- Sep 3) 31% Health care decision (Jun 28-Jul 1) 45%Libya investigation (Oct 18-21)*31% US Economy (Oct 25-28)* 44% US Embassy Attacks (Sep 13-16)* 43%As I read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past week, please tell me if you happened to follow each newsstory very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely. First, The Economy.Note: Dates show field period of the survey in which interestwas measured. * Interest in these stories was tracked overmultiple weeks; highest weekly interest is shown here.3Source: Pew Research Center News Interest Index 5. VIEWS OF ECONOMIC NEWS WERE MIXEDTHROUGHOUT THE YEARAre you hearing mostly good news about the economy these days, mostly bad news about the economy or amix of both good and bad news? 90%80%Mix of good and bad news 80% 68%68% 70% 64% 65% 60% 67% 60% 62% 60% 62% 60% 56%55% 53%61% 55% 59%50% 50% 41% Mostly bad news 48%39% 38%41% 40% 39% 36% 27%30%35% 30% 19%24%33% 30% 30% 28%32% 31% 24% 20%Mostly good news7% 7% 6%9% 11% 6%10% 10%1% 4% 3% 5% 4%4% 2% 3% 6%2%0%Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Oct-12Aug-09Aug-10Aug-11Aug-12Dec-08Feb-09Jun-09Dec-09Feb-10Jun-10Dec-10Feb-11Jun-11Dec-11Feb-12Jun-12Dec-12 A Mix of Good and Bad Mostly Bad News Mostly Good News 4Source: Pew Research Center Poll, January 3-6, 2013 6. 2012: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND THE STOCK MARKETUS Consumer Confidence71.673.1 71.5 69.5 68.7 68.4 64.465.4 65.161.562.761.3 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Dow Jones 5Sources: www.conference-board.org./ www.tradingeconomics.com 7. THE YEAR IN REVIEW: ECONOMIC INDICATORS THENNOWINDICATORJanuary 2012 December 2012 Unemployment Rate 8.3%7.8% Inflation Rate2.9%1.7% Stock Market (DJIA)12,359.9213,104.14 Consumer Confidence Index61.5 65.1 U.S. Interest Rates .25%.25% U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate 1 78.83 79.67 1The US Dollar Index is a leading benchmark for the international value of the US dollar measuring the performance of the greenback against a basket of currencies which includes: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK.6Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.tradingeconomics.com/ . http://www.fxstreet.com/ 8. THE YEAR IN REVIEW PERCEPTIONS OF THEECONOMY 100%Beginning of 2012 End of 201280% 79% 69%60% 61% 53%40%23%20%23% 0% Country on Wrong TrackEconomy is Getting Worse*Economy is Bad* Compared with other years, do you think that 2011 was one of the best years for the United States, above average, about average, below average, or one of the worst years for the United States?One of the bestAbove average About averageBelow averageOne of the worst 2%7%27%43% 21%7Source: NBC/WSJ survey/ *CBS News/NYT Poll 9. THE YEAR IN REVIEW- PERCEPTIONS OF OBAMA Overall Job Approval Rating Job Approval on the Economy60% Beginning of 2012End of 201255%53%50%48%49%45% 45%40% 8Source: NBC/WSJ survey 10. DISSATISFACTION WITH THE DIRECTION OFTHE COUNTRY9Source: Gallup Poll, January 10, 2013 11. Perceptions of Economic Conditions /Views of the Future 10 12. OPTIMISM THAT WE SAW TOWARD END OF2012 MAY BE LEVELING OFF WRONG TRACK 54.6% Election Optimism?The trend shows a sharp increase inoptimism between July 2012 andNovember 2012. It has since leveled off. RIGHT DIRECTION 35.7%11Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 16, 2013 13. AMERICANS VIEWS ON THE ECONOMY HAVESTAGNATED AS WE BEGIN THE NEW YEARDo you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?60% 50%49%50%45% 45% 43%43% 44% 43% Staying38% 39% the Same40%34%36% 32% 30% 30% 33% 30% 30% 32% 35%33% Getting 28%30%better 28% 28% 28% Getting20%24% 23% 22% 24% 24% 25% 23% worse18%10% 0% 12Source: CBS News Poll, December 12-16, 2012 14. DEBT, GOVERNMENT DYSFUNCTION RISE TO TOPOF AMERICANS ISSUE LIST 40% 35% 32% 32%37%31%31%31% 31% 31% 31%30%29% 30%26% 30% 29% 25%28%23%26% 26%21% Economy 25%25% 20% 20%22% 23% 20% Deficit 16% 17%15% 14% 15% 15%14% 18%13% 13% Dissatisfaction 15% 12%12%12%12% 16% with govt 10% 13% Unemployment 11%11%10%11%8% 8% 9%9%9%5% 7% 7%0%JanFeb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 UnemploymentEconomy Dissatisfaction with govt Federal Budget Deficit What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? 13Source: USA Today/Gallup Poll, January 7-10, 2013 15. JOB SITUATION REMAINS GLOOMYThinking now about job opportunities where you live, would you say there areplenty of jobs available in your community or are jobs difficult to find?90%80%68%70% Jobs are difficult to find60%50%40%30%20%Plenty of jobs are available 22%10% 0% 14Source: Pew Research Center Poll, December 5 - December 9, 2012 16. MANY PREDICT 2013 WILL BE A YEAR OF ECONOMIC DIFFICULTY15Source: USA Today/Gallup Poll, December 14-17, 2012 17. Perceptions of Obama & Congress16 18. OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL COMPARABLE TO PAST PRESIDENTS AT START OF 2nd TERM Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in80%73% January of First Year of 2nd Term70% 62%60% 58%54%52% 51%50%40%30%20%10% 0%EisenhowerReagan ClintonObamaG.W. Bush Nixon (1957) (1985) (1997) (2013) (2005)(1973) Weekly Approval Rating Average 17 Jan 7 - 13Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data 19. OBAMA WALKS INTO SECOND TERMSTRONGER THAN BUSH-10+11 58%55% President Bushs 48% approval rating44%dropped 10 points the year he was re- elected. President Obamas has increased 11 points.Bush (2004) Obama (2012)January Approval Rating December Approval Rating 18Source: Pew Research Center, December 5-9, 2012 20. PERCEPTION OF OBAMA ADMIN. BIGGESTACCOMPLISHMENTS & FAILURESWhich ONE of these would you say is the mostWhich ONE of these would you say is thepositive accomplishment of the Obamabiggest failure of the ObamaAdministration? Administration?Most Positive AccomplishmentBiggest Failure Bringing troops home (Iraq)22% Unable to improve economy21% Killing Osama bin Laden21% Increased Govt. spending 21% Holding the line on Middle Class & raising Kept troops in Afghanistan 16% taxes on wealthy15%Passing Obamacare14% Preventing another depression12%Raising taxes on the wealthy6% Passing Obamacare12%Didnt provide strong leadership5% Saving the Auto industry 7%Too much business regulation5% None of these9%None of these 8%19Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey January 12-15 21. EXPECTATIONS FOR OBAMA HIGHER THANCLINTONS IN 1996 Looking ahead to the next four years, do you expect [Bill Clinton/Barack Obama] to do a better job as president, about the same, or a worse job as president than he did in his first term? 50%46%46% 40% 39% 31% 30% 22% 20%14% 10%0% Better About the sameWorse ClintonObamaNote: No Opinionnot shown20Source: CNN/ORC Poll, December 17-18, 2012 22. U.S. PRESIDENTS TYPICALLY LESS POPULAR IN SECOND TERMPresidential Approval Averages, by Terms First-term Second- Net change,average termsecond approval approvalminus first ratingratingtermHarry Truman 56% 36%-20Dwight Eisenhower70% 60%-10Lyndon Johnson 74% 50%-24Richard Nixon56% 34%-22Ronald Reagan50% 55%+5Bill Clinton 50% 61%+11George W. Bush 62% 37%-25Barack Obama 49% ? ?Reagan and Clinton Only Ones Who Scored Better During Second Term21Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data 23. BIDENS CURRENT RATING IS SOMEWHATLESS FAVORABLE THAN HIS PREDECESSOR Vice Presidents at Start of GoreCheneyBiden Second Term Jan 1997 Mar 2005 Jan 2013 %%% Favorable 65 48 42 Unfavorable 29 42 42 Dont Know610 1622Source: Pew Research Center Poll, January 9-13, 2013 24. AMERICANS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THEIRSITUATION, PESSIMISTIC ABOUT WASHINGTON 70%66% OptimisticPessimistic 60% 55%51% 51% 50%48% 49% 46%46%41% 40% 30% 30% 20% 10%0% Familys financial Policies ObamaEconomy The way things Chances Obamasituationwill pursue in are going in the and GOP will work second termcountrytogether 23Source: ABC News/Washington Post, December 24, 2012 25. REPUBLICANS BLAMED MOST FOR GRIDLOCK Who do you blame more for the difficulties in 50%47%reaching agreements and passing legislation in Congress? 40% 30%24%21% 20% 10%0%Congressional GOPObama & Democrats Both equally** Both equallywas not offered asa response, but Note: Dont know and non24was recorded applicable answers not shown when mentionedSource: CBS News Poll, December 18, 2012 26. CONGRESS BEGINS 2013 WITH 14% APPROVAL Annual average for 2012, 15%, was lowest in Gallup history25Source: Gallup Poll, January 7-10, 2013 27. NEITHER SIDE OF THE AISLE RECEIVESPOSITIVE MARKS ON JOB PERFORMANCE Democrats in Congress Republicans in CongressDisapproveDisapproveApprove59% 71%37% Approve24% No opinion No opinion3% 4% Do approve or disapprove of the way the Do approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are doing their job?Republicans in Congress are doing their job?26Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 10-13, 2013 28. Perceptions of Policy Issues Moving Forward 27 29. TOP PRIORITIES FOR 2013-2014: EMPHASIZINGEDUCATION AND AFFORDABLE HEALTHCAREWhat kinds of things would you like to see leaders in Washington deal with over the next few years? Education Emphasis 40%Access to Affordable Healthcare 33%More Personal Freedom/Less Gov.3