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COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6
Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Tuesday, 30 December 2014
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price Target
BRES 44.50 42.50
UDCD 24.25 21.20
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 12,571.59 -0.5 21.3
Resistance/Support
Levels 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 12,600 12,800 13,000
Support 12,430 12,200 11,430
QSE Index Commentary
Overview: At the start of the last session, the QSE Index ascended to the 12,800 target but stopped 12 points short of this level and eventually retreated by session end, losing about 0.5%. The Index broke below an intraday uptrend channel (denoted with the red line) but is still above the short-term downtrend line(denoted with a dashed line). The Index needs to stay above 12,430 support level; any break below that level may attract heavy sellers, we believe. Indicators have not changed drastically from the previous session on the daily chart; the intraday chart suggests further profit taking is possible. Expected Target Level: 12,800 Only a solid break above 12,600 may take the Index to 12,800 and beyond. Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 12,430
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 29 Dec 14 28 Dec 14 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 979.2 872.7 12.2
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 687.5 690.7 -0.5
Volume (mn) 25.6 28.0 -8.6
Number of Trans. 10,834 10,612 2.1
Companies Traded 42 42 0.0
Market Breadth 13:23 38:1 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 18,750.41 -0.5 51.2
All Share Index 3,209.04 -0.3 51.8
Banks 3,239.38 -0.6 50.9
Industrials 4,140.20 0.9 52.1
Transportation 2,312.11 -0.3 54.8
Real Estate 2,368.52 -2.1 48.8
Insurance 3,932.68 1.1 60.2
Telecoms 1,470.41 -0.1 55.5
Consumer 7,067.47 -0.3 52.9
Al Rayan Islamic 4,218.50 -1.2 51.4
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QGRI 54.90 4.8 77.0
QCFS 48.00 6.2 73.3
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6
BRES
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 44.50 -5.92 2,708,853
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 44.70 47.00 50.00
Support 42.50 39.70 35.00
Commentary
Overview: The name created what is known as an Evening Star candlestick on Sunday. It is a reversal candlestick that comes after an up move. The formation was confirmed by a 6% drop from Sunday’s closing. The MACD is below the zero line and losing more momentum, as shown by the Histogram. The RSI made a failure swing on the intraday chart, suggesting the momentum is becoming weaker. Hence, technical indicators suggest the drop may continue further. Expected Price Retreat: QR42.50 – QR40.80 The sell should be triggered with a break below the QR44.50 level.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6
UDCD
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 24.25 -0.21 818,864
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 25.10 25.60 26.30
Support 24.15 21.90 20.00
Commentary
Overview: UDCD jumped 24.8% between the middle of December to the top reached last Sunday. However. over the last two sessions, the name has not been able to break the QR25.00 price barrier. More importantly, a Tweezers Top reversal formation was created (denoted with the red oval). Tweezers Top is a strong reversal pattern that needs a confirmation to be fulfilled. The confirmation comes from a break (and preferably a close) below QR24.00. Indicators show that this break is likely to happen. On the daily chart, the MACD is below zero and the RSI is at the neutral area. On the hourly chart, the MACD is above the zero line but its Histogram shows weakness. In addition, The RSI reached the overbought area and regressed below it, indicating a further fall is more likely to unfold. Expected Price Retreat: QR22.00 It is essential to break below QR24.00 level to initiate the sell position.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6
Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3rd
2nd
1st
Pivot 1st
2nd
3rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 12,571.59 12,427.10 12,509.89 12,561.04 12,643.84 12,726.63 12,777.78 12,860.58 13,031.10 13,361.28 12,955.58
Total Return 18,750.41 18,534.90 18,658.39 18,734.68 18,858.16 18,981.65 19,057.94 19,181.42 19,435.77 19,928.22 19,308.85
All Share 3,209.04 3,175.59 3,194.76 3,206.60 3,225.77 3,244.94 3,256.78 3,275.95 3,308.81 3,384.51 3,289.36
Al Rayan Islamic 4,218.50 4,155.41 4,191.00 4,212.99 4,248.58 4,284.17 4,306.16 4,341.75 4,373.59 4,520.81 4,314.39
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 46.50 45.60 45.96 46.19 46.55 46.91 47.14 47.50 48.43 51.93 50.55
CBQK 69.30 67.10 67.86 68.34 69.10 69.86 70.34 71.10 71.13 70.82 68.73
DHBK 57.80 57.40 57.55 57.65 57.80 57.95 58.05 58.20 57.67 58.85 59.83
QIBK 105.60 102.20 103.54 104.36 105.70 107.04 107.86 109.20 105.71 110.54 100.00
QIIK 83.30 82.10 82.67 83.03 83.60 84.17 84.53 85.10 83.54 85.93 83.85
Insurance
QATI 91.10 87.77 88.87 89.56 90.67 91.77 92.46 93.57 91.98 94.71 85.59
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 119.20 116.73 118.15 119.02 120.43 121.85 122.72 124.13 122.77 125.94 104.35
Industrials
IQCD 173.50 172.23 172.96 173.41 174.13 174.86 175.31 176.03 185.94 186.43 183.74
QEWS 191.50 186.50 188.22 189.28 191.00 192.72 193.78 195.50 187.02 187.24 185.05
GISS 104.00 94.40 97.61 99.59 102.80 106.01 107.99 111.20 108.62 114.79 103.87
QIGD 42.60 38.47 39.88 40.75 42.17 43.58 44.45 45.87 45.01 51.60 55.82
Real Estate
BRES 44.50 42.37 43.59 44.34 45.57 46.79 47.54 48.77 45.14 43.04 40.95
UDCD 24.25 23.55 23.86 24.04 24.35 24.66 24.84 25.15 25.59 27.44 25.88
ERES 15.80 15.10 15.50 15.75 16.15 16.55 16.80 17.20 17.60 18.63 21.37
MRDS 20.05 19.16 19.67 19.98 20.50 21.01 21.32 21.84 21.67 22.69 20.39
Telecommunication
ORDS 121.00 118.60 119.56 120.15 121.10 122.06 122.65 123.60 119.41 124.53 132.99
VFQS 17.03 16.57 16.83 16.99 17.25 17.51 17.67 17.93 18.13 19.61 18.40
Transportation
QGTS 23.50 22.87 23.10 23.24 23.47 23.70 23.84 24.07 23.45 23.98 23.33
QNNS 96.90 94.97 95.73 96.20 96.97 97.73 98.20 98.97 97.89 96.48 95.42 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6
Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
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Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.