30 December Daily technical trader

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  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6

    Daily Technical Trader Qatar

    Tuesday, 30 December 2014

    Stocks Covered Today

    Ticker Price Target

    BRES 44.50 42.50

    UDCD 24.25 21.20

    QSE Index

    Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

    Last 12,571.59 -0.5 21.3

    Resistance/Support

    Levels 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 12,600 12,800 13,000

    Support 12,430 12,200 11,430

    QSE Index Commentary

    Overview: At the start of the last session, the QSE Index ascended to the 12,800 target but stopped 12 points short of this level and eventually retreated by session end, losing about 0.5%. The Index broke below an intraday uptrend channel (denoted with the red line) but is still above the short-term downtrend line(denoted with a dashed line). The Index needs to stay above 12,430 support level; any break below that level may attract heavy sellers, we believe. Indicators have not changed drastically from the previous session on the daily chart; the intraday chart suggests further profit taking is possible. Expected Target Level: 12,800 Only a solid break above 12,600 may take the Index to 12,800 and beyond. Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 12,430

    QSE Index (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    QE Summary

    Market Indicators 29 Dec 14 28 Dec 14 %Ch.

    Value Traded (QR mn) 979.2 872.7 12.2

    Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 687.5 690.7 -0.5

    Volume (mn) 25.6 28.0 -8.6

    Number of Trans. 10,834 10,612 2.1

    Companies Traded 42 42 0.0

    Market Breadth 13:23 38:1

    QE Indices

    Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

    Total Return 18,750.41 -0.5 51.2

    All Share Index 3,209.04 -0.3 51.8

    Banks 3,239.38 -0.6 50.9

    Industrials 4,140.20 0.9 52.1

    Transportation 2,312.11 -0.3 54.8

    Real Estate 2,368.52 -2.1 48.8

    Insurance 3,932.68 1.1 60.2

    Telecoms 1,470.41 -0.1 55.5

    Consumer 7,067.47 -0.3 52.9

    Al Rayan Islamic 4,218.50 -1.2 51.4

    RSI 14 (Over Bought)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    QGRI 54.90 4.8 77.0

    QCFS 48.00 6.2 73.3

    RSI 14 (Over Sold)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    QSE Index (30min)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6

    BRES

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 44.50 -5.92 2,708,853

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 44.70 47.00 50.00

    Support 42.50 39.70 35.00

    Commentary

    Overview: The name created what is known as an Evening Star candlestick on Sunday. It is a reversal candlestick that comes after an up move. The formation was confirmed by a 6% drop from Sundays closing. The MACD is below the zero line and losing more momentum, as shown by the Histogram. The RSI made a failure swing on the intraday chart, suggesting the momentum is becoming weaker. Hence, technical indicators suggest the drop may continue further. Expected Price Retreat: QR42.50 QR40.80 The sell should be triggered with a break below the QR44.50 level.

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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    UDCD

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 24.25 -0.21 818,864

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 25.10 25.60 26.30

    Support 24.15 21.90 20.00

    Commentary

    Overview: UDCD jumped 24.8% between the middle of December to the top reached last Sunday. However. over the last two sessions, the name has not been able to break the QR25.00 price barrier. More importantly, a Tweezers Top reversal formation was created (denoted with the red oval). Tweezers Top is a strong reversal pattern that needs a confirmation to be fulfilled. The confirmation comes from a break (and preferably a close) below QR24.00. Indicators show that this break is likely to happen. On the daily chart, the MACD is below zero and the RSI is at the neutral area. On the hourly chart, the MACD is above the zero line but its Histogram shows weakness. In addition, The RSI reached the overbought area and regressed below it, indicating a further fall is more likely to unfold. Expected Price Retreat: QR22.00 It is essential to break below QR24.00 level to initiate the sell position.

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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    Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

    Ticker Close 3rd

    2nd

    1st

    Pivot 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

    QSE Index 12,571.59 12,427.10 12,509.89 12,561.04 12,643.84 12,726.63 12,777.78 12,860.58 13,031.10 13,361.28 12,955.58

    Total Return 18,750.41 18,534.90 18,658.39 18,734.68 18,858.16 18,981.65 19,057.94 19,181.42 19,435.77 19,928.22 19,308.85

    All Share 3,209.04 3,175.59 3,194.76 3,206.60 3,225.77 3,244.94 3,256.78 3,275.95 3,308.81 3,384.51 3,289.36

    Al Rayan Islamic 4,218.50 4,155.41 4,191.00 4,212.99 4,248.58 4,284.17 4,306.16 4,341.75 4,373.59 4,520.81 4,314.39

    Banks & Financials Services

    MARK 46.50 45.60 45.96 46.19 46.55 46.91 47.14 47.50 48.43 51.93 50.55

    CBQK 69.30 67.10 67.86 68.34 69.10 69.86 70.34 71.10 71.13 70.82 68.73

    DHBK 57.80 57.40 57.55 57.65 57.80 57.95 58.05 58.20 57.67 58.85 59.83

    QIBK 105.60 102.20 103.54 104.36 105.70 107.04 107.86 109.20 105.71 110.54 100.00

    QIIK 83.30 82.10 82.67 83.03 83.60 84.17 84.53 85.10 83.54 85.93 83.85

    Insurance

    QATI 91.10 87.77 88.87 89.56 90.67 91.77 92.46 93.57 91.98 94.71 85.59

    Consumer Goods & Services

    MCGS 119.20 116.73 118.15 119.02 120.43 121.85 122.72 124.13 122.77 125.94 104.35

    Industrials

    IQCD 173.50 172.23 172.96 173.41 174.13 174.86 175.31 176.03 185.94 186.43 183.74

    QEWS 191.50 186.50 188.22 189.28 191.00 192.72 193.78 195.50 187.02 187.24 185.05

    GISS 104.00 94.40 97.61 99.59 102.80 106.01 107.99 111.20 108.62 114.79 103.87

    QIGD 42.60 38.47 39.88 40.75 42.17 43.58 44.45 45.87 45.01 51.60 55.82

    Real Estate

    BRES 44.50 42.37 43.59 44.34 45.57 46.79 47.54 48.77 45.14 43.04 40.95

    UDCD 24.25 23.55 23.86 24.04 24.35 24.66 24.84 25.15 25.59 27.44 25.88

    ERES 15.80 15.10 15.50 15.75 16.15 16.55 16.80 17.20 17.60 18.63 21.37

    MRDS 20.05 19.16 19.67 19.98 20.50 21.01 21.32 21.84 21.67 22.69 20.39

    Telecommunication

    ORDS 121.00 118.60 119.56 120.15 121.10 122.06 122.65 123.60 119.41 124.53 132.99

    VFQS 17.03 16.57 16.83 16.99 17.25 17.51 17.67 17.93 18.13 19.61 18.40

    Transportation

    QGTS 23.50 22.87 23.10 23.24 23.47 23.70 23.84 24.07 23.45 23.98 23.33

    QNNS 96.90 94.97 95.73 96.20 96.97 97.73 98.20 98.97 97.89 96.48 95.42 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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    Definitions:

    Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

    and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

    lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

    compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

    Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

    Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

    security price to head lower.

    SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

    considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

    price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

    Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

    MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

    a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

    RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

    use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

    considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as ove