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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Tuesday, 17 March 2015

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

GISS 88.50 84.50

QATI 74.70 73.00

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 11,761.11 -1.7 6.1

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 11,800 12,000 12,250

Support 11,700 11,600 11,500

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The Index broke through the important 12,000 points support level and this break was substantiated by higher traded volumes. The Index might reach the 11,700 and the 11,600 levels and the moving averages are all pointing down. As a result, downward momentum is expected to continue. On the other hand, we can see that the Index reached the oversold area on the daily and the intraday charts. Thus a typical bounce may occur at any moment. Expected Resistance Level: 12,000 Expected Support Level: 11,700

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 16 Mar 15 15 Mar 15 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 380.5 292.3 30.2

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 641.0 652.1 -1.7

Volume (mn) 7.6 7.4 3.3

Number of Trans. 5,138 4,710 9.1

Companies Traded 37 39 -5.1

Market Breadth 0:35 6:30 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 18,064.20 -1.6 41.4

All Share Index 3,132.28 -1.4 42.8

Banks 3,183.85 -1.3 45.1

Industrials 3,860.14 -1.9 40.5

Transportation 2,464.99 -0.8 59.3

Real Estate 2,361.33 -0.8 42.9

Insurance 4,123.56 -1.2 64.4

Telecoms 1,321.87 -2.5 33.7

Consumer 7,049.44 -1.2 38.2

Al Rayan Islamic 4,271.99 -1.4 46.9

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QGRI 77.90 0.0 75.0

QCFS 49.60 0.0 73.2

ZHCD 88.00 -7.3 71.4

QNNS 107.70 -1.2 70.1

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

DBIS 37.55 -3.7 26.6

DHBK 50.80 -2.7 27.2

UDCD 22.59 -0.2 27.2

IQCD 139.10 -2.4 29.3

ORDS 105.20 -2.4 29.5

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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GISS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 88.50 -2.85 432,982

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 90.00 93.00 95.00

Support 87.80 84.50 77.80

Commentary

Overview: GISS is experiencing a tremendous amount of selling pressure. That pressure is likely to continue if the price breaks below last session’s lowest price. Such a breach will confirm the bearish Head and Shoulders price pattern. In addition, the name is trading in a downtrend channel on as seen in the intraday chart (denoted in red). Expected Target Retreat: QR84.50 – QR77.80 A break below the QR87.80 is needed to trigger the sell recommendation.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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QATI

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 74.70 -1.71 32,456

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 75.50 78.00 82.50

Support 73.00 71.00 68.00

Commentary

Overview: QATI lost ground and could weaken even further if price breaks below the important support level of QR74.70. It can be argued that the name is going through a trading range and even so, the name could be heading south. Based on the technical indicators, the MACD is below the zero and heading down coupled with the RSI pointing down on both time frames. On the daily chart, the 100SMA is on the verge of breaching below 200SMA, potentially creating the bearish Death Cross. Expected Target Retreat: QR73.00 – QR71.00 A break below the QR 74.70 is needed to trigger the sell recommendation.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 11,761.11 11,649.91 11,709.42 11,746.18 11,805.69 11,865.20 11,901.96 11,961.47 12,201.45 12,609.93 12,936.05

Total Return 18,064.20 17,893.40 17,984.80 18,041.27 18,132.67 18,224.07 18,280.54 18,371.94 18,347.10 18,881.97 19,330.81

All Share 3,132.28 3,106.73 3,120.16 3,128.46 3,141.90 3,155.33 3,163.63 3,177.07 3,161.93 3,234.07 3,293.65

Al Rayan Islamic 4,271.99 4,232.28 4,252.81 4,265.49 4,286.01 4,306.54 4,319.22 4,339.74 4,233.64 4,301.36 4,390.16

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 45.25 44.68 44.91 45.05 45.28 45.51 45.65 45.88 46.23 47.28 50.99

CBQK 68.90 68.10 68.44 68.66 69.00 69.34 69.56 69.90 68.39 69.73 69.25

DHBK 50.80 49.40 50.09 50.51 51.20 51.89 52.31 53.00 56.82 57.25 58.46

QIBK 98.00 97.00 97.57 97.93 98.50 99.07 99.43 100.00 104.73 105.16 105.90

QIIK 79.80 77.33 78.63 79.43 80.73 82.03 82.83 84.13 83.37 83.45 84.70

Insurance

QATI 74.70 73.83 74.33 74.64 75.13 75.63 75.94 76.43 77.13 78.49 78.25

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 150.00 149.87 149.90 149.93 149.97 150.00 150.03 150.07 135.18 128.90 118.72

Industrials

IQCD 139.10 137.30 138.22 138.78 139.70 140.62 141.18 142.10 152.17 168.95 176.04

QEWS 186.00 184.00 185.15 185.85 187.00 188.15 188.85 190.00 191.95 189.56 188.19

GISS 88.50 85.23 86.84 87.83 89.43 91.04 92.03 93.63 98.82 103.60 106.78

QIGD 39.60 38.87 39.29 39.55 39.97 40.39 40.65 41.07 40.94 42.90 50.65

Real Estate

BRES 47.70 46.40 47.07 47.48 48.15 48.82 49.23 49.90 46.12 45.65 43.20

UDCD 22.59 22.07 22.26 22.37 22.56 22.75 22.86 23.05 24.10 24.81 26.13

ERES 15.32 14.92 15.07 15.16 15.31 15.46 15.55 15.70 15.54 16.54 18.84

MRDS 18.61 18.04 18.30 18.46 18.71 18.97 19.13 19.38 19.71 20.67 20.88

Telecommunication

ORDS 105.20 103.07 104.21 104.92 106.07 107.21 107.92 109.07 115.19 117.23 125.62

VFQS 16.95 16.48 16.72 16.87 17.11 17.35 17.50 17.74 16.57 17.32 18.75

Transportation

QGTS 23.06 22.89 22.96 23.01 23.09 23.16 23.21 23.29 23.95 23.70 23.73

QNNS 107.70 104.83 105.98 106.69 107.83 108.98 109.69 110.83 102.08 99.99 97.07 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

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