29 December Daily technical trader

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  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6

    Daily Technical Trader Qatar

    Monday, 29 December 2014

    Stocks Covered Today

    Ticker Price Target

    ORDS 121.00 126.00

    QIBK 105.60 108.00

    QSE Index

    Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

    Last 12,604.23 1.5 19.0

    Resistance/Support

    Levels 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 12,600 12,800 13,000

    Support 12,430 12,200 11,430

    QSE Index Commentary

    Overview: The QSE Index continued its bullish correction; technical indicators are suggesting further continuation to the next possible target of 12,800. On the daily chart, the MACD is still below the zero line but its Histogram is showing further strength. The RSI is departing the neutral area and heading north. On the intraday chart, the MACD is above the zero line while the RSI is showing weakness and ended below the oversold area. Thus, there might be a slight profit booking from traders but the up move correction is still intact. Expected Target Level: 12,800 Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 12,200

    QSE Index (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    QE Summary

    Market Indicators 28 Dec 14 25 Dec 14 %Ch.

    Value Traded (QR mn) 872.7 910.8 -4.2

    Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 690.7 679.3 1.7

    Volume (mn) 28.0 22.8 22.8

    Number of Trans. 10,612 8,651 22.7

    Companies Traded 42 43 -2.3

    Market Breadth 38:1 30:9

    QE Indices

    Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

    Total Return 18,839.65 1.5 52.1

    All Share Index 3,218.26 1.7 52.4

    Banks 3,257.81 0.6 52.2

    Industrials 4,103.41 2.1 50.5

    Transportation 2,318.78 1.9 55.5

    Real Estate 2,418.64 4.0 51.7

    Insurance 3,890.38 1.3 58.3

    Telecoms 1,471.83 2.0 55.8

    Consumer 7,086.51 2.2 53.4

    Al Rayan Islamic 4,269.84 2.2 53.5

    RSI 14 (Over Bought)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    QGRI 52.40 5.4 72.2

    RSI 14 (Over Sold)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    QSE Index (30min)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6

    ORDS

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 121.00 1.00 96,805

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 122.00 126.00 130.00

    Support 117.80 115.00 111.00

    Commentary

    Overview: The Telecommunications sector leader broke through a medium-term downtrend line. That should provide positive attitude to the share price. In addition, the price broke above its 50SMA; it also broke above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Indicators are jittery as the name is still in a V shape correction. The MACD is below the zero line but challenging its way through it (indicated by the rise in the Histogram) and the RSI becoming bullish on the daily chart. The hourly chart indicates that the upward momentum is still valid. Expected Price Target: QR126.00 A break above the QR121.00 price would initiate a buying position. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR119.00

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6

    QIBK

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 105.60 1.34 98,235

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 106.00 108.00 112.50

    Support 102.00 100.00 93.20

    Commentary

    Overview: Although the name gained over 25% from its previous trough, we expect a continuation in QIBKs price upside. The name managed to stay above its 200SMA, which remains an essential level. Indicators are turning more bullish than bearish; the MACD is still below the zero line but its Histogram is showing strength and the RSI is strengthening above its neutral area. On the hourly chart, indicators are showing positive momentum. The MACD is above the zero line and the Histogram is still in the positive area. The RSI is reaching the overbought area; however, this should be a positive when we have a bullish move in a fractal time frame. Expected Price Retreat: QR108.00 It is essential to break the QR106.00 and sustain above this level for the name to continue its course to our projected target. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR99.60

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6

    Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

    Ticker Close 3rd

    2nd

    1st

    Pivot 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

    QSE Index 12,631.42 12,406.93 12,483.32 12,530.51 12,606.90 12,683.29 12,730.48 12,806.87 13,042.63 13,364.21 12,951.27

    Total Return 18,839.65 18,504.81 18,618.75 18,689.14 18,803.08 18,917.02 18,987.41 19,101.35 19,452.96 19,932.60 19,300.41

    All Share 3,218.26 3,149.62 3,171.65 3,185.26 3,207.29 3,229.32 3,242.93 3,264.96 3,311.31 3,384.99 3,288.11

    Al Rayan Islamic 4,269.84 4,160.77 4,197.26 4,219.80 4,256.28 4,292.77 4,315.31 4,351.79 4,377.71 4,521.96 4,310.41

    Banks & Financials Services

    MARK 46.95 46.35 46.62 46.78 47.05 47.32 47.48 47.75 48.54 51.99 50.51

    CBQK 68.70 66.77 67.34 67.69 68.27 68.84 69.19 69.77 71.15 70.80 68.71

    DHBK 57.80 57.53 57.65 57.72 57.83 57.95 58.02 58.13 57.65 58.83 59.84

    QIBK 105.60 100.60 102.09 103.01 104.50 105.99 106.91 108.40 105.82 110.54 99.85

    QIIK 84.30 81.23 82.11 82.65 83.53 84.41 84.95 85.83 83.57 85.93 83.82

    Insurance

    QATI 90.10 88.70 89.46 89.94 90.70 91.46 91.94 92.70 92.12 94.69 85.46

    Consumer Goods & Services

    MCGS 121.90 119.97 120.73 121.20 121.97 122.73 123.20 123.97 122.87 125.82 104.08

    Industrials

    IQCD 175.50 172.37 173.32 173.91 174.87 175.82 176.41 177.37 186.12 186.42 183.85

    QEWS 191.50 186.10 187.93 189.07 190.90 192.73 193.87 195.70 186.87 187.15 184.95

    GISS 96.80 91.33 92.90 93.87 95.43 97.00 97.97 99.53 109.02 115.06 103.61

    QIGD 44.00 42.33 42.91 43.26 43.83 44.41 44.76 45.33 45.20 51.69 55.83

    Real Estate

    BRES 47.30 45.77 46.65 47.19 48.07 48.95 49.49 50.37 45.04 42.99 40.89

    UDCD 24.30 23.23 23.65 23.91 24.33 24.75 25.01 25.43 25.65 27.48 25.87

    ERES 15.90 14.31 14.88 15.23 15.80 16.37 16.72 17.29 17.66 18.68 21.38

    MRDS 20.48 18.76 19.30 19.63 20.17 20.71 21.04 21.58 21.70 22.69 20.35

    Telecommunication

    ORDS 121.00 118.20 119.00 119.50 120.30 121.10 121.60 122.40 119.53 124.61 133.09

    VFQS 17.10 15.92 16.32 16.58 16.98 17.38 17.64 18.04 18.19 19.63 18.38

    Transportation

    QGTS 23.50 22.83 23.06 23.20 23.43 23.66 23.80 24.03 23.45 23.99 23.32

    QNNS 96.70 94.57 95.25 95.68 96.37 97.05 97.48 98.17 97.84 96.42 95.40 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6

    Definitions:

    Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

    and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

    lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

    compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

    Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

    Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

    security price to head lower.

    SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

    considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

    price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

    Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

    MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

    a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

    RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

    use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

    considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

    Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a securitys price activity over a certain peri