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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Thursday, 11 December 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

NLCS 21.40 20.50

MCGS 116.00 108.00

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 12,339.87 -0.1 9.7

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,450 12,620 12,900

Support 12,200 12,000 11,400

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The Index dropped slightly, creating a Bullish Doji Star candlestick. After the sharp recent declines, the candle signifies indecision between market participants. The MACD on the daily is well below the zero line, and the RSI is at the oversold area. In the intraday chart, MACD is diverging positively against the Index. The mixed signals indicate the trend is still down but a bounce is possible near-term. Expected Target : 12,450 – 12,620 This short-term bounce should be used as a selling point. Suggested Stop-Loss: 12,200 A drop below will drag the Index to the 12,000 psychological level.

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 10 Dec 14 09 Dec 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 411.4 554.9 -25.9

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 678.3 678.1 0.0

Volume (mn) 7.4 11.7 -36.8

Number of Trans. 5,281 6,904 -23.5

Companies Traded 40 42 -4.8

Market Breadth 11:23 1:40 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 18,404.80 -0.1 25.9

All Share Index 3,153.43 -0.2 26.2

Banks 3,180.34 0.4 31.0

Industrials 4,089.03 -0.3 27.0

Transportation 2,253.04 -1.5 30.8

Real Estate 2,388.03 -1.1 23.8

Insurance 3,560.86 -0.2 19.9

Telecoms 1,431.25 1.6 41.0

Consumer 6,949.23 -1.7 29.3

Al Rayan Islamic 4,176.66 -0.5 28.3

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IHGS 219.00 1.8 75.1

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

AHCS 13.16 -2.4 17.1

QIGD 40.05 -1.8 18.9

ERES 16.00 -1.0 19.5

DOHI 30.00 -3.5 19.6

NLCS 21.40 -1.8 20.0

QSE Index (30Min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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NLCS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 21.40 -1.83 106,904

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 22.40 22.80 23.55

Support 20.50 20.00 18.25

Commentary

Overview: NLCS did not meet the conditions for the recommendation sent out previous Thursday. The name continued its spiral down and thus we should be selling any bounces. The MACDs, on both time frames, turned their direction down. Not surprisingly, the RSI is at an oversold area and this should not be considered an incentive to buy. Indicators and price actions suggest further retreat on the name. Rallies should be used as exit points. Expected Price Target: QR20.50 Once it breaks the QR21.20 price, the stock could continue its descent. Sell the rallies on the name.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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MCGS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 116.00 -2.27 68,043

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 122.00 127.00 140.00

Support 116.00 108.00 100.00

Commentary

Overview: The name is trading at a bottom of a medium-term range. A further drop could be in the making as the MACD is below the zero line and the RSI are just touching the oversold area (on both charted time frames). Although this is a bearish call on the name, a bounce from this level is possible but it should be used for exiting long positions. Expected Retreat Price: QR108.00 – QR100.00 The overall intraday-trend is pointing south. A drop is expected once QR116.00 is breached down.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 12,339.87 12,185.16 12,243.20 12,279.06 12,337.10 12,395.14 12,431.00 12,489.04 13,419.77 13,496.84 12,942.69

Total Return 18,404.80 18,174.05 18,260.62 18,314.10 18,400.66 18,487.23 18,540.71 18,627.27 20,015.46 20,130.42 19,259.18

All Share 3,153.43 3,120.63 3,132.92 3,140.51 3,152.80 3,165.09 3,172.68 3,184.97 3,400.74 3,415.34 3,283.58

Al Rayan Islamic 4,176.66 4,122.85 4,144.64 4,158.10 4,179.90 4,201.69 4,215.15 4,236.95 4,523.47 4,571.38 4,279.48

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 45.45 44.62 44.88 45.05 45.32 45.58 45.75 46.02 50.72 53.13 50.19

CBQK 69.00 67.80 68.14 68.36 68.70 69.04 69.26 69.60 72.30 71.15 68.57

DHBK 57.00 55.80 56.14 56.36 56.70 57.04 57.26 57.60 58.47 59.27 60.42

QIBK 100.00 97.07 97.91 98.43 99.27 100.11 100.63 101.47 109.33 111.39 98.77

QIIK 80.60 79.20 79.70 80.00 80.50 81.00 81.30 81.80 85.68 86.76 83.63

Insurance

QATI 81.70 80.57 80.95 81.18 81.57 81.95 82.18 82.57 95.41 95.33 84.44

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 116.00 113.93 115.12 115.85 117.03 118.22 118.95 120.13 127.15 124.52 101.63

Industrials

IQCD 182.00 176.67 178.19 179.14 180.67 182.19 183.14 184.67 189.55 187.11 185.19

QEWS 188.00 186.67 187.05 187.28 187.67 188.05 188.28 188.67 188.34 187.77 184.52

GISS 89.60 86.00 87.83 88.97 90.80 92.63 93.77 95.60 116.24 117.73 102.82

QIGD 40.05 39.22 39.68 39.96 40.42 40.88 41.16 41.62 49.18 53.44 55.98

Real Estate

BRES 44.40 43.47 43.93 44.21 44.67 45.13 45.41 45.87 44.90 43.15 40.40

UDCD 24.60 24.13 24.29 24.38 24.53 24.69 24.78 24.93 26.92 27.96 25.77

ERES 16.00 15.61 15.78 15.88 16.04 16.21 16.31 16.47 18.86 19.57 21.49

MRDS 19.83 19.45 19.67 19.80 20.02 20.24 20.37 20.59 22.94 22.79 20.06

Telecommunication

ORDS 117.90 114.03 115.14 115.83 116.93 118.04 118.73 119.83 123.15 126.58 134.87

VFQS 16.52 16.18 16.37 16.48 16.67 16.86 16.97 17.16 19.39 20.09 18.20

Transportation

QGTS 22.30 21.60 21.91 22.09 22.40 22.71 22.89 23.20 23.92 24.16 23.32

QNNS 95.20 93.13 94.16 94.80 95.83 96.86 97.50 98.53 98.42 96.77 95.55 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

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