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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Sunday, 28 December 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

IQCD 173.00 170.00

KCBK 21.85 21.45

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 12,449.05 0.7 11.4

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,450 12,600 12,800

Support 12,200 11,430 11,230

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The QSE Index bounced off the strong long-term uptrend line and gained 11.3% last week. The general sentiment is still positive given the relative stability seen in oil prices. The good news is that this bounce was accompanied with higher volumes, suggesting further increase in the level of the Index is possible. In the short term, there is strong resistance around the 12,450 level due to the lower side of the downtrend channel (seen on the daily chart) and a downtrend line (denoted with the dashed line on the intraday chart). Expected Target Level: 12,600 The Index needs persistent trading above the 12,450 level in order to achieve the target level. Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 12,200

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 25 Dec 14 24 Dec 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 910.8 659.5 38.1

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 679.3 674.7 0.7

Volume (mn) 22.8 13.2 72.7

Number of Trans. 8,651 6,300 37.3

Companies Traded 43 42 2.4

Market Breadth 30:9 33:7 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 18,567.64 0.7 49.4

All Share Index 3,163.86 0.7 49.1

Banks 3,237.57 0.2 50.9

Industrials 4,019.35 0.6 46.6

Transportation 2,276.19 0.5 51.6

Real Estate 2,326.50 2.3 46.3

Insurance 3,840.84 1.0 55.9

Telecoms 1,442.43 1.6 52.2

Consumer 6,930.96 0.7 49.6

Al Rayan Islamic 4,176.28 1.6 50.0

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IHGS 107.90 10.0 24.5

AHCS 11.35 1.7 29.2

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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IQCD

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 173.00 -1.09 157,450

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 176.40 177.00 180.00

Support 170.00 167.00 164.00

Commentary

Overview: The name could not break the resistance price of QR177.00 and stabilized below the level. On the daily chart, indicators are showing weakness as the MACD is below the zero line and the RSI is point down from the neutral area. The intraday chart supports this weakness notion as the MACD’s Histogram is slipping below the zero. Pennants are considered a bullish formation. Although there is a small pennant (the triangle shown on the intraday chart), the formation has already been breached downward. As a result, it is safe to conclude that further weakness will be observed in the coming sessions on the name. Expected Price Retreats: QR170.00, QR167.00 – QR164.00 We have multiple targets for IQCD given the support levels seen on the name and more importantly, the existence of a price gap. This price gap could be filled when the price retraces back near the start of the previous move. A break below QR173.00 should trigger the selling recommendation.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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KCBK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 21.85 -1.09 263,459

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 22.30 22.70 23.40

Support 21.45 21.25 21.00

Commentary

Overview: Although KCBK is trading inside a medium-term symmetrical triangle, there is a strong possibility that the stock may retreat to the lower part of that triangle. The bank is trading below all its SMAs on the daily chart. These SMAs have created heavy resistance alongside the upper border of the triangle. Indicators are mostly flattish to the downside; this is a confirmation of the price range created over the last few months. Expected Price Retreat: QR21.45 – QR21.25 It is possible to see the price dip to the lower side of the triangle, which can be considered as a strong support. Selling could be triggered by trading below QR21.85. Only a strong push above the QR22.70 will discard this scenario.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 12,449.05 12,153.07 12,247.01 12,305.05 12,398.99 12,492.93 12,550.97 12,644.91 13,048.84 13,366.67 12,946.33

Total Return 18,567.64 18,126.19 18,266.30 18,352.86 18,492.98 18,633.09 18,719.65 18,859.77 19,462.22 19,936.27 19,291.03

All Share 3,163.86 3,089.51 3,112.93 3,127.41 3,150.84 3,174.26 3,188.74 3,212.17 3,312.60 3,385.36 3,286.75

Al Rayan Islamic 4,176.28 4,032.60 4,077.50 4,105.25 4,150.15 4,195.05 4,222.80 4,267.70 4,379.60 4,522.22 4,306.03

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 46.85 45.65 46.05 46.30 46.70 47.10 47.35 47.75 48.63 52.06 50.47

CBQK 67.40 66.47 66.73 66.90 67.17 67.43 67.60 67.87 71.15 70.79 68.69

DHBK 57.10 55.63 56.09 56.37 56.83 57.29 57.57 58.03 57.62 58.81 59.86

QIBK 104.20 97.73 99.68 100.89 102.83 104.78 105.99 107.93 105.89 110.54 99.70

QIIK 83.50 80.77 81.61 82.13 82.97 83.81 84.33 85.17 83.55 85.92 83.78

Insurance

QATI 90.00 87.13 88.01 88.55 89.43 90.31 90.85 91.73 92.24 94.68 85.34

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 121.00 115.67 117.19 118.14 119.67 121.19 122.14 123.67 122.90 125.64 103.81

Industrials

IQCD 173.00 170.80 172.06 172.84 174.10 175.36 176.14 177.40 186.17 186.40 183.95

QEWS 191.50 186.10 187.93 189.07 190.90 192.73 193.87 195.70 186.63 187.06 184.85

GISS 96.80 91.33 92.90 93.87 95.43 97.00 97.97 99.53 109.02 115.06 103.61

QIGD 42.00 39.40 40.14 40.61 41.35 42.09 42.56 43.30 45.36 51.76 55.81

Real Estate

BRES 47.30 41.60 43.34 44.41 46.15 47.89 48.96 50.70 44.88 42.89 40.82

UDCD 23.60 22.53 22.92 23.15 23.53 23.92 24.15 24.53 25.70 27.52 25.85

ERES 15.00 14.54 14.73 14.84 15.03 15.22 15.33 15.52 17.71 18.72 21.38

MRDS 18.92 16.93 17.61 18.03 18.71 19.39 19.81 20.49 21.71 22.67 20.31

Telecommunication

ORDS 119.80 117.53 118.22 118.65 119.33 120.02 120.45 121.13 119.62 124.68 133.19

VFQS 16.20 14.97 15.38 15.63 16.04 16.45 16.70 17.11 18.24 19.65 18.35

Transportation

QGTS 23.19 22.67 22.82 22.91 23.06 23.21 23.30 23.45 23.44 23.99 23.31

QNNS 95.30 93.37 93.98 94.36 94.97 95.58 95.96 96.57 97.77 96.35 95.39 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.