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COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6 Daily Technical Trader Qatar Tuesday, 23 December 2014 Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Target MARK 48.00 42.80 MRDS 18.20 19.30 QSE Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 12,421.22 3.3 19.7 Resistance/Support Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 12,430 12,800 13,000 Support 12,200 11,430 11,230 QSE Index Commentary Overview: The Index continued its bullish move as expected. Although the Index gained almost 3.3% in the last session, indicators are starting to show possible signs of weakness. On the daily chart, the RSI reached the neutral zone. In addition, the MACD is extended below the zero line. On the intraday chart, it is obvious that the RSI reached the overbought area and the MACD is over extended above the zero line while its Histogram is showing weakness. All the above indicate that there is potential room to go up but we advise investors to book profits. Expected Target Level: 12,430 12,800 If the 12,430 level is penetrated upward for at least an hour, then another run to 12,800 is possible. Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 12,200 QSE Index (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research QE Summary Market Indicators 22 Dec 14 21 Dec 14 %Ch. Value Traded (QR mn) 1,004.5 1,260.0 -20.3 Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 677.8 661.7 2.4 Volume (mn) 24.7 26.1 -5.4 Number of Trans. 10,931 9,437 15.8 Companies Traded 43 43 0.0 Market Breadth 32:9 41:1 QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Total Return 18,526.14 3.3 48.5 All Share Index 3,153.65 2.8 48.0 Banks 3,267.32 2.9 52.7 Industrials 4,004.78 2.2 45.2 Transportation 2,227.14 0.6 47.0 Real Estate 2,274.49 5.0 41.8 Insurance 3,833.50 5.0 55.9 Telecoms 1,430.93 1.7 50.5 Consumer 6,775.91 1.5 45.8 Al Rayan Islamic 4,100.29 4.2 46.7 RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI IHGS 121.00 -10.0 21.9 AHCS 11.35 -1.4 26.4 DBIS 41.45 4.9 32.0 NLCS 19.33 -0.3 33.3 QGMD 9.70 -2.7 34.8 QSE Index (30min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

23 December Daily technical trader

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COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6

Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Tuesday, 23 December 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

MARK 48.00 42.80

MRDS 18.20 19.30

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 12,421.22 3.3 19.7

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,430 12,800 13,000

Support 12,200 11,430 11,230

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The Index continued its bullish move as expected. Although the Index gained almost 3.3% in the last session, indicators are starting to show possible signs of weakness. On the daily chart, the RSI reached the neutral zone. In addition, the MACD is extended below the zero line. On the intraday chart, it is obvious that the RSI reached the overbought area and the MACD is over extended above the zero line while its Histogram is showing weakness. All the above indicate that there is potential room to go up but we advise investors to book profits. Expected Target Level: 12,430 – 12,800 If the 12,430 level is penetrated upward for at least an hour, then another run to 12,800 is possible. Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 12,200

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 22 Dec 14 21 Dec 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 1,004.5 1,260.0 -20.3

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 677.8 661.7 2.4

Volume (mn) 24.7 26.1 -5.4

Number of Trans. 10,931 9,437 15.8

Companies Traded 43 43 0.0

Market Breadth 32:9 41:1 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 18,526.14 3.3 48.5

All Share Index 3,153.65 2.8 48.0

Banks 3,267.32 2.9 52.7

Industrials 4,004.78 2.2 45.2

Transportation 2,227.14 0.6 47.0

Real Estate 2,274.49 5.0 41.8

Insurance 3,833.50 5.0 55.9

Telecoms 1,430.93 1.7 50.5

Consumer 6,775.91 1.5 45.8

Al Rayan Islamic 4,100.29 4.2 46.7

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IHGS 121.00 -10.0 21.9

AHCS 11.35 -1.4 26.4

DBIS 41.45 4.9 32.0

NLCS 19.33 -0.3 33.3

QGMD 9.70 -2.7 34.8

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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MARK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 48.00 4.69 1,330,328

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 49.00 51.00 52.30

Support 46.40 43.85 42.00

Commentary

Overview: The Shari’ah compliant bank made a significant leap yesterday and gained 4.69%. The stock closed on yesterday’s high. Usually, when there is a bounce, volumes are watched closely to measure how healthy that bounce is and how far it is expected to reach. Volumes did not increase with the current rally, indicating limited buying interest and suggests the bounce might not last for long. Without higher participating volumes we could potentially profit taking from traders. The MACD is still below the zero line, and the RSI on the intraday chart is at the overbought area. In conclusion, sell the bounce. Expected Price Retreat: QR42.80 This price is expected to be reached if the name trades below QR46.40.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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MRDS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 18.20 2.42 3,584,484

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 19.50 20.70 21.90

Support 18.00 17.00 15.55

Commentary

Overview: MRDS had a volatile session as it faced a sudden sell-off in the middle of the session. However, the stock recovered and ended the day with a 2.42% gain. Higher volumes were registered on the name as it bounced over the past three sessions. There is still a chance for more recovery while the main short-term trend is still down. Although a long-legged Doji was formed, the MACD on the daily is turning upward and the RSI punched through the oversold area. On the intraday chart, the MACD is getting closer to the zero line and the RSI is departing the neutral zone. As a result, we expect that the name could reach higher levels before profit taking comes into play. Expected Target Price: QR19.30 – QR19.50 A sustained price penetration above the QR18.75 mark is needed to reach the price target. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR18.00 A drop below the stop-loss level could drag the price even further to QR16.00 then QR15.55.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 12,421.22 11,669.27 11,884.71 12,017.80 12,233.23 12,448.67 12,581.76 12,797.19 13,115.40 13,390.78 12,934.09

Total Return 18,526.14 17,404.59 17,725.92 17,924.43 18,245.75 18,567.08 18,765.59 19,086.91 19,561.50 19,972.22 19,266.82

All Share 3,153.65 2,977.16 3,027.72 3,058.96 3,109.53 3,160.09 3,191.33 3,241.90 3,328.77 3,390.76 3,283.48

Al Rayan Islamic 4,100.29 3,811.04 3,893.91 3,945.11 4,027.98 4,110.85 4,162.05 4,244.92 4,404.27 4,531.05 4,294.60

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 48.00 44.13 45.24 45.93 47.03 48.14 48.83 49.93 49.02 52.31 50.34

CBQK 66.60 63.20 64.54 65.36 66.70 68.04 68.86 70.20 71.43 70.86 68.64

DHBK 56.10 53.17 54.05 54.59 55.47 56.35 56.89 57.77 57.66 58.82 59.91

QIBK 103.70 95.83 98.55 100.22 102.93 105.65 107.32 110.03 106.44 110.56 99.27

QIIK 81.60 76.87 78.39 79.34 80.87 82.39 83.34 84.87 83.76 85.98 83.67

Insurance

QATI 89.80 82.73 84.76 86.01 88.03 90.06 91.31 93.33 92.84 94.71 84.97

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 113.70 98.10 102.57 105.33 109.80 114.27 117.03 121.50 123.29 125.11 103.01

Industrials

IQCD 174.50 168.17 170.08 171.26 173.17 175.08 176.26 178.17 186.81 186.50 184.26

QEWS 186.90 177.70 180.34 181.96 184.60 187.24 188.86 191.50 186.42 186.89 184.53

GISS 96.10 86.63 89.35 91.02 93.73 96.45 98.12 100.83 110.42 115.72 103.27

QIGD 41.70 36.10 37.70 38.70 40.30 41.90 42.90 44.50 46.21 52.12 55.81

Real Estate

BRES 42.95 36.42 38.29 39.44 41.32 43.19 44.34 46.22 44.62 42.86 40.63

UDCD 23.50 20.70 21.54 22.06 22.90 23.74 24.26 25.10 25.97 27.66 25.80

ERES 15.15 13.98 14.37 14.60 14.98 15.37 15.60 15.98 18.00 18.92 21.40

MRDS 18.20 16.27 16.92 17.32 17.96 18.61 19.01 19.65 21.98 22.68 20.23

Telecommunication

ORDS 119.00 113.53 115.10 116.07 117.63 119.20 120.17 121.73 120.23 125.03 133.51

VFQS 16.00 14.53 14.99 15.27 15.73 16.19 16.47 16.93 18.53 19.76 18.29

Transportation

QGTS 22.44 21.52 21.85 22.06 22.39 22.72 22.93 23.26 23.49 24.01 23.29

QNNS 94.80 90.93 92.08 92.79 93.93 95.08 95.79 96.93 97.66 96.26 95.35 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.