23 December Daily technical trader

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  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6

    Daily Technical Trader Qatar

    Tuesday, 23 December 2014

    Stocks Covered Today

    Ticker Price Target

    MARK 48.00 42.80

    MRDS 18.20 19.30

    QSE Index

    Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

    Last 12,421.22 3.3 19.7

    Resistance/Support

    Levels 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 12,430 12,800 13,000

    Support 12,200 11,430 11,230

    QSE Index Commentary

    Overview: The Index continued its bullish move as expected. Although the Index gained almost 3.3% in the last session, indicators are starting to show possible signs of weakness. On the daily chart, the RSI reached the neutral zone. In addition, the MACD is extended below the zero line. On the intraday chart, it is obvious that the RSI reached the overbought area and the MACD is over extended above the zero line while its Histogram is showing weakness. All the above indicate that there is potential room to go up but we advise investors to book profits. Expected Target Level: 12,430 12,800 If the 12,430 level is penetrated upward for at least an hour, then another run to 12,800 is possible. Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 12,200

    QSE Index (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    QE Summary

    Market Indicators 22 Dec 14 21 Dec 14 %Ch.

    Value Traded (QR mn) 1,004.5 1,260.0 -20.3

    Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 677.8 661.7 2.4

    Volume (mn) 24.7 26.1 -5.4

    Number of Trans. 10,931 9,437 15.8

    Companies Traded 43 43 0.0

    Market Breadth 32:9 41:1

    QE Indices

    Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

    Total Return 18,526.14 3.3 48.5

    All Share Index 3,153.65 2.8 48.0

    Banks 3,267.32 2.9 52.7

    Industrials 4,004.78 2.2 45.2

    Transportation 2,227.14 0.6 47.0

    Real Estate 2,274.49 5.0 41.8

    Insurance 3,833.50 5.0 55.9

    Telecoms 1,430.93 1.7 50.5

    Consumer 6,775.91 1.5 45.8

    Al Rayan Islamic 4,100.29 4.2 46.7

    RSI 14 (Over Bought)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    RSI 14 (Over Sold)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    IHGS 121.00 -10.0 21.9

    AHCS 11.35 -1.4 26.4

    DBIS 41.45 4.9 32.0

    NLCS 19.33 -0.3 33.3

    QGMD 9.70 -2.7 34.8

    QSE Index (30min)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6

    MARK

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 48.00 4.69 1,330,328

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 49.00 51.00 52.30

    Support 46.40 43.85 42.00

    Commentary

    Overview: The Shariah compliant bank made a significant leap yesterday and gained 4.69%. The stock closed on yesterdays high. Usually, when there is a bounce, volumes are watched closely to measure how healthy that bounce is and how far it is expected to reach. Volumes did not increase with the current rally, indicating limited buying interest and suggests the bounce might not last for long. Without higher participating volumes we could potentially profit taking from traders. The MACD is still below the zero line, and the RSI on the intraday chart is at the overbought area. In conclusion, sell the bounce. Expected Price Retreat: QR42.80 This price is expected to be reached if the name trades below QR46.40.

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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    MRDS

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 18.20 2.42 3,584,484

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 19.50 20.70 21.90

    Support 18.00 17.00 15.55

    Commentary

    Overview: MRDS had a volatile session as it faced a sudden sell-off in the middle of the session. However, the stock recovered and ended the day with a 2.42% gain. Higher volumes were registered on the name as it bounced over the past three sessions. There is still a chance for more recovery while the main short-term trend is still down. Although a long-legged Doji was formed, the MACD on the daily is turning upward and the RSI punched through the oversold area. On the intraday chart, the MACD is getting closer to the zero line and the RSI is departing the neutral zone. As a result, we expect that the name could reach higher levels before profit taking comes into play. Expected Target Price: QR19.30 QR19.50 A sustained price penetration above the QR18.75 mark is needed to reach the price target. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR18.00 A drop below the stop-loss level could drag the price even further to QR16.00 then QR15.55.

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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    Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

    Ticker Close 3rd

    2nd

    1st

    Pivot 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

    QSE Index 12,421.22 11,669.27 11,884.71 12,017.80 12,233.23 12,448.67 12,581.76 12,797.19 13,115.40 13,390.78 12,934.09

    Total Return 18,526.14 17,404.59 17,725.92 17,924.43 18,245.75 18,567.08 18,765.59 19,086.91 19,561.50 19,972.22 19,266.82

    All Share 3,153.65 2,977.16 3,027.72 3,058.96 3,109.53 3,160.09 3,191.33 3,241.90 3,328.77 3,390.76 3,283.48

    Al Rayan Islamic 4,100.29 3,811.04 3,893.91 3,945.11 4,027.98 4,110.85 4,162.05 4,244.92 4,404.27 4,531.05 4,294.60

    Banks & Financials Services

    MARK 48.00 44.13 45.24 45.93 47.03 48.14 48.83 49.93 49.02 52.31 50.34

    CBQK 66.60 63.20 64.54 65.36 66.70 68.04 68.86 70.20 71.43 70.86 68.64

    DHBK 56.10 53.17 54.05 54.59 55.47 56.35 56.89 57.77 57.66 58.82 59.91

    QIBK 103.70 95.83 98.55 100.22 102.93 105.65 107.32 110.03 106.44 110.56 99.27

    QIIK 81.60 76.87 78.39 79.34 80.87 82.39 83.34 84.87 83.76 85.98 83.67

    Insurance

    QATI 89.80 82.73 84.76 86.01 88.03 90.06 91.31 93.33 92.84 94.71 84.97

    Consumer Goods & Services

    MCGS 113.70 98.10 102.57 105.33 109.80 114.27 117.03 121.50 123.29 125.11 103.01

    Industrials

    IQCD 174.50 168.17 170.08 171.26 173.17 175.08 176.26 178.17 186.81 186.50 184.26

    QEWS 186.90 177.70 180.34 181.96 184.60 187.24 188.86 191.50 186.42 186.89 184.53

    GISS 96.10 86.63 89.35 91.02 93.73 96.45 98.12 100.83 110.42 115.72 103.27

    QIGD 41.70 36.10 37.70 38.70 40.30 41.90 42.90 44.50 46.21 52.12 55.81

    Real Estate

    BRES 42.95 36.42 38.29 39.44 41.32 43.19 44.34 46.22 44.62 42.86 40.63

    UDCD 23.50 20.70 21.54 22.06 22.90 23.74 24.26 25.10 25.97 27.66 25.80

    ERES 15.15 13.98 14.37 14.60 14.98 15.37 15.60 15.98 18.00 18.92 21.40

    MRDS 18.20 16.27 16.92 17.32 17.96 18.61 19.01 19.65 21.98 22.68 20.23

    Telecommunication

    ORDS 119.00 113.53 115.10 116.07 117.63 119.20 120.17 121.73 120.23 125.03 133.51

    VFQS 16.00 14.53 14.99 15.27 15.73 16.19 16.47 16.93 18.53 19.76 18.29

    Transportation

    QGTS 22.44 21.52 21.85 22.06 22.39 22.72 22.93 23.26 23.49 24.01 23.29

    QNNS 94.80 90.93 92.08 92.79 93.93 95.08 95.79 96.93 97.66 96.26 95.35 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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    Definitions:

    Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

    and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

    lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

    compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

    Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

    Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

    security price to head lower.

    SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

    considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

    price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

    Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

    MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

    a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

    RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of perio