21 December Daily technical trader

  • View
    243

  • Download
    1

Embed Size (px)

Text of 21 December Daily technical trader

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6

    Daily Technical Trader Qatar

    Sunday, 21 December 2014

    Stocks Covered Today

    Ticker Price Target

    IQCD 162.00 169.50

    CBQK 62.50 64.70

    QSE Index

    Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

    Last 11,181.65 1.1 16.5

    Resistance/Support

    Levels 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 11,430 11,230 11,640

    Support 10,900 10,500 10,000

    QSE Index Commentary

    Overview: The Index stabilized above the critical long-term trend line. The RSI is pointing down and coming close to the oversold area. In addition, the MACD is also in a bearish correction mode. The good news is the Doji candlestick created on the weekly chart with high volumes. This indicates indecision among traders specifically after the sharp drop experienced over the past month. Thus, we expect a rebound from the current levels, keeping a close eye for any breach below the 10,900. Expected Target Level: 11,600 This is the short-term expected target from this level. Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 10,900 A break below that level threatens further significant weakness to the Index.

    QSE Index (Weekly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    QE Summary

    Market Indicators 17 Dec 14 16 Dec 14 %Ch.

    Value Traded (QR mn) 643.1 1,008.1 -36.2

    Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 618.6 634.0 -2.4

    Volume (mn) 14.1 25.2 -44.0

    Number of Trans. 7,846 11,034 -28.9

    Companies Traded 41 41 0.0

    Market Breadth 25:12 37:4

    QE Indices

    Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

    Total Return 16,677.33 1.1 24.9

    All Share Index 2,851.86 1.0 24.7

    Banks 3,020.15 1.6 34.5

    Industrials 3,607.57 0.9 22.3

    Transportation 2,030.21 1.0 23.6

    Real Estate 1,968.80 -0.1 15.0

    Insurance 3,349.85 1.2 22.8

    Telecoms 1,278.80 0.0 27.0

    Consumer 6,075.93 0.9 25.2

    Al Rayan Islamic 3,599.81 -0.1 20.9

    RSI 14 (Over Bought)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    RSI 14 (Over Sold)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    MPHC 25.60 -0.4 8.0

    AHCS 10.70 0.9 9.5

    ERES 13.32 1.1 12.6

    DBIS 36.00 -7.9 12.9

    QGTS 20.36 0.0 16.6

    QSE Index (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6

    IQCD

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 162.00 -0.12 357,553

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 169.50 173.00 175.00

    Support 160.00 156.00 151.00

    Commentary

    Overview: The share tried to punch through the QR160.00 over the past week three times. Inability to close below the level proved a strong support. On the daily, the RSI reached the oversold area and is possibly making a double bottom pattern there. It exhibits strength on the name. The hourly chart paints a clearer picture. The MACD is below the zero line and turning upwards, confirmed by its Histogram. The RSI is lifting off the oversold area. There is a small price gap between QR164.00 and QR165.00 which is expected to be filled on this bounce. Expected Price Target: QR169.50 This target is concluded from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (denoted on the hourly chart) and the downtrend line. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR160.00 A drop below the level means a sharper correction is unfolding.

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6

    CBQK

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 62.50 -0.48 905,410

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 64.70 66.50 68.50

    Support 62.00 60.00 57.80

    Commentary

    Overview: Commercial Bank of Qatar could not break below the QR62.00 level. The RSI on the daily chart reached the oversold area and the MACD is at an extreme level below the zero line, suggesting a possible bounce from this level. The story is supported by the intraday chart. The name created a long legged Doji candle stick, which is a bullish reversal candle. This Doji was followed by a failure to break below QR61.00, suggesting a stronger bounce from the level. Expected Target Price: QR64.70 QR67.00 A bounce is expected from here as the bank is still considered to be in a downtrend. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR61.00 A drop from this point means the weakness may continue further to the next support levels of QR60.00 then QR57.80.

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6

    Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels

    Ticker Close 3rd

    2nd

    1st

    Pivot 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

    QSE Index 11,181.65 10,903.37 10,994.69 11,051.10 11,142.42 11,233.74 11,290.15 11,381.47 13,171.32 13,408.73 12,929.01

    Total Return 16,677.33 16,262.28 16,398.47 16,482.62 16,618.82 16,755.01 16,839.16 16,975.36 19,644.91 19,998.99 19,253.97

    All Share 2,851.86 2,780.59 2,803.73 2,818.03 2,841.17 2,864.31 2,878.61 2,901.75 3,342.32 3,394.76 3,281.80

    Al Rayan Islamic 3,599.81 3,524.02 3,555.38 3,574.75 3,606.11 3,637.47 3,656.84 3,688.20 4,428.13 4,538.96 4,288.00

    Banks & Financials Services

    MARK 41.70 40.33 40.89 41.23 41.78 42.34 42.68 43.23 49.32 52.47 50.26

    CBQK 62.50 60.83 61.60 62.07 62.83 63.60 64.07 64.83 71.63 70.91 68.61

    DHBK 50.50 49.77 50.19 50.45 50.87 51.29 51.55 51.97 57.78 58.89 60.03

    QIBK 87.80 85.67 86.32 86.72 87.37 88.02 88.42 89.07 106.95 110.63 99.02

    QIIK 71.80 68.40 69.66 70.44 71.70 72.96 73.74 75.00 84.07 86.11 83.62

    Insurance

    QATI 78.10 76.63 77.05 77.31 77.73 78.15 78.41 78.83 93.32 94.74 84.75

    Consumer Goods & Services

    MCGS 94.00 82.87 86.99 89.54 93.67 97.79 100.34 104.47 124.05 124.91 102.57

    Industrials

    IQCD 162.00 159.33 160.48 161.19 162.33 163.48 164.19 165.33 187.34 186.55 184.46

    QEWS 165.70 158.63 161.65 163.52 166.53 169.55 171.42 174.43 186.58 186.89 184.40

    GISS 79.50 70.83 73.32 74.85 77.33 79.82 81.35 83.83 111.54 116.16 103.04

    QIGD 35.45 32.48 33.44 34.03 34.98 35.94 36.53 37.48 46.91 52.42 55.83

    Real Estate

    BRES 35.50 33.97 34.75 35.23 36.02 36.80 37.28 38.07 44.62 42.92 40.53

    UDCD 20.68 19.76 20.03 20.19 20.46 20.73 20.89 21.16 26.17 27.75 25.77

    ERES 13.32 12.95 13.11 13.21 13.37 13.53 13.63 13.79 18.21 19.09 21.42

    MRDS 16.16 15.59 15.83 15.99 16.24 16.48 16.64 16.89 22.21 22.70 20.17

    Telecommunication

    ORDS 107.00 104.73 106.03 106.83 108.13 109.43 110.23 111.53 120.70 125.32 133.82

    VFQS 14.00 13.50 13.75 13.90 14.15 14.40 14.55 14.80 18.75 19.84 18.26

    Transportation

    QGTS 20.36 19.92 20.15 20.29 20.52 20.75 20.89 21.12 23.57 24.03 23.29

    QNNS 86.70 77.90 80.84 82.66 85.60 88.54 90.36 93.30 97.70 96.30 95.33 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6

    Definitions:

    Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

    and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

    lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

    compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

    Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

    Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

    security price to head lower.

    SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

    considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

    price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

    Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

    MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

    a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

    RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

    use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securitie