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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Sunday, 21 December 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

IQCD 162.00 169.50

CBQK 62.50 64.70

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 11,181.65 1.1 16.5

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 11,430 11,230 11,640

Support 10,900 10,500 10,000

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The Index stabilized above the critical long-term trend line. The RSI is pointing down and coming close to the oversold area. In addition, the MACD is also in a bearish correction mode. The good news is the Doji candlestick created on the weekly chart with high volumes. This indicates indecision among traders specifically after the sharp drop experienced over the past month. Thus, we expect a rebound from the current levels, keeping a close eye for any breach below the 10,900. Expected Target Level: 11,600 This is the short-term expected target from this level. Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 10,900 A break below that level threatens further significant weakness to the Index.

QSE Index (Weekly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 17 Dec 14 16 Dec 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 643.1 1,008.1 -36.2

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 618.6 634.0 -2.4

Volume (mn) 14.1 25.2 -44.0

Number of Trans. 7,846 11,034 -28.9

Companies Traded 41 41 0.0

Market Breadth 25:12 37:4 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 16,677.33 1.1 24.9

All Share Index 2,851.86 1.0 24.7

Banks 3,020.15 1.6 34.5

Industrials 3,607.57 0.9 22.3

Transportation 2,030.21 1.0 23.6

Real Estate 1,968.80 -0.1 15.0

Insurance 3,349.85 1.2 22.8

Telecoms 1,278.80 0.0 27.0

Consumer 6,075.93 0.9 25.2

Al Rayan Islamic 3,599.81 -0.1 20.9

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

MPHC 25.60 -0.4 8.0

AHCS 10.70 0.9 9.5

ERES 13.32 1.1 12.6

DBIS 36.00 -7.9 12.9

QGTS 20.36 0.0 16.6

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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IQCD

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 162.00 -0.12 357,553

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 169.50 173.00 175.00

Support 160.00 156.00 151.00

Commentary

Overview: The share tried to punch through the QR160.00 over the past week three times. Inability to close below the level proved a strong support. On the daily, the RSI reached the oversold area and is possibly making a double bottom pattern there. It exhibits strength on the name. The hourly chart paints a clearer picture. The MACD is below the zero line and turning upwards, confirmed by its Histogram. The RSI is lifting off the oversold area. There is a small price gap between QR164.00 and QR165.00 which is expected to be filled on this bounce. Expected Price Target: QR169.50 This target is concluded from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (denoted on the hourly chart) and the downtrend line. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR160.00 A drop below the level means a sharper correction is unfolding.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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CBQK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 62.50 -0.48 905,410

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 64.70 66.50 68.50

Support 62.00 60.00 57.80

Commentary

Overview: Commercial Bank of Qatar could not break below the QR62.00 level. The RSI on the daily chart reached the oversold area and the MACD is at an extreme level below the zero line, suggesting a possible bounce from this level. The story is supported by the intraday chart. The name created a long legged Doji candle stick, which is a bullish reversal candle. This Doji was followed by a failure to break below QR61.00, suggesting a stronger bounce from the level. Expected Target Price: QR64.70 – QR67.00 A bounce is expected from here as the bank is still considered to be in a downtrend. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR61.00 A drop from this point means the weakness may continue further to the next support levels of QR60.00 then QR57.80.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 11,181.65 10,903.37 10,994.69 11,051.10 11,142.42 11,233.74 11,290.15 11,381.47 13,171.32 13,408.73 12,929.01

Total Return 16,677.33 16,262.28 16,398.47 16,482.62 16,618.82 16,755.01 16,839.16 16,975.36 19,644.91 19,998.99 19,253.97

All Share 2,851.86 2,780.59 2,803.73 2,818.03 2,841.17 2,864.31 2,878.61 2,901.75 3,342.32 3,394.76 3,281.80

Al Rayan Islamic 3,599.81 3,524.02 3,555.38 3,574.75 3,606.11 3,637.47 3,656.84 3,688.20 4,428.13 4,538.96 4,288.00

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 41.70 40.33 40.89 41.23 41.78 42.34 42.68 43.23 49.32 52.47 50.26

CBQK 62.50 60.83 61.60 62.07 62.83 63.60 64.07 64.83 71.63 70.91 68.61

DHBK 50.50 49.77 50.19 50.45 50.87 51.29 51.55 51.97 57.78 58.89 60.03

QIBK 87.80 85.67 86.32 86.72 87.37 88.02 88.42 89.07 106.95 110.63 99.02

QIIK 71.80 68.40 69.66 70.44 71.70 72.96 73.74 75.00 84.07 86.11 83.62

Insurance

QATI 78.10 76.63 77.05 77.31 77.73 78.15 78.41 78.83 93.32 94.74 84.75

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 94.00 82.87 86.99 89.54 93.67 97.79 100.34 104.47 124.05 124.91 102.57

Industrials

IQCD 162.00 159.33 160.48 161.19 162.33 163.48 164.19 165.33 187.34 186.55 184.46

QEWS 165.70 158.63 161.65 163.52 166.53 169.55 171.42 174.43 186.58 186.89 184.40

GISS 79.50 70.83 73.32 74.85 77.33 79.82 81.35 83.83 111.54 116.16 103.04

QIGD 35.45 32.48 33.44 34.03 34.98 35.94 36.53 37.48 46.91 52.42 55.83

Real Estate

BRES 35.50 33.97 34.75 35.23 36.02 36.80 37.28 38.07 44.62 42.92 40.53

UDCD 20.68 19.76 20.03 20.19 20.46 20.73 20.89 21.16 26.17 27.75 25.77

ERES 13.32 12.95 13.11 13.21 13.37 13.53 13.63 13.79 18.21 19.09 21.42

MRDS 16.16 15.59 15.83 15.99 16.24 16.48 16.64 16.89 22.21 22.70 20.17

Telecommunication

ORDS 107.00 104.73 106.03 106.83 108.13 109.43 110.23 111.53 120.70 125.32 133.82

VFQS 14.00 13.50 13.75 13.90 14.15 14.40 14.55 14.80 18.75 19.84 18.26

Transportation

QGTS 20.36 19.92 20.15 20.29 20.52 20.75 20.89 21.12 23.57 24.03 23.29

QNNS 86.70 77.90 80.84 82.66 85.60 88.54 90.36 93.30 97.70 96.30 95.33 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.