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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Thursday, 04 December 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Direction Tgt.

DHBK 56.90 Down 53.00

NLCS 21.65 Down 22.80

QSE Index

Price % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 12,486.80 -1.1 10.6

Resistance/Support (Daily)

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,800 13,240 13,450

Support 12,450 12,000 11,400

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The Index dipped during the previous session to the 12,450 support level and bounced off it. There is a critical level here (shown as the dashed uptrend line) being tested as the Index dropped below an important support. This trend line extended from September 2013 to July 2014 (not seen in these charts). The short-term trend line is still facing down. The MACD and the RSI on both time frames are still below the zero line. Expected Target : 12,800 This target maybe reached but it is still considered a bounce, which we recommend selling at. Suggested Stop-Loss: 12,450 A drop below will take it down to 12,000.

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 03 Dec 14 02 Dec 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 682.9 716.5 -4.7

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 690.7 698.6 -1.1

Volume (mn) 10.5 12.8 -18.0

Number of Trans. 6,698 7,318 -8.5

Companies Traded 40 42 -4.8

Market Breadth 11:24 16:24 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 18,623.95 -1.1 27.3

All Share Index 3,193.80 -1.0 28.5

Banks 3,207.68 -1.9 30.0

Industrials 4,089.30 -0.6 25.1

Transportation 2,294.58 -0.7 35.2

Real Estate 2,471.31 0.0 30.4

Insurance 3,784.85 -0.1 31.2

Telecoms 1,400.83 -0.5 33.5

Consumer 7,171.10 -0.6 38.6

Al Rayan Islamic 4,214.01 -0.5 31.2

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IHGS 215.60 1.2 81.0

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QGMD 11.00 -0.9 16.2

NLCS 22.20 -0.2 20.3

QIGD 42.50 -0.9 22.7

GISS 99.30 -1.7 23.1

MPHC 30.65 -0.3 25.2

QSE Index (30Min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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DHBK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 56.90 -2.59 492,659

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 57.40 58.80 60.60

Support 55.80 53.00 50.00

Commentary

Overview: The bank just broke the lower side of the medium-term symmetrical triangle (seen in the daily chart). In the past seven trading sessions, DHBK dropped over 9% from its last peak. At this point, short-term indicators are showing more bearishness on the price. The Histogram, on both time frames is in the negative area. The RSIs are pointing downward. It is important to realize that the price reached two important bottoms (late July and October). These bottoms may act as a support level which could cause the bank to bounce. Also, the price reached the lower side of a downtrend line (seen on the hourly chart), which may contribute to a very short-term up move. This bounce, if any, should be treated as an exit point. Expected Price Retreat: QR53.00 Sellers are expected to participate once the price breaches the QR55.80 on the downside.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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NLCS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 21.65 -1.35 48,387

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 22.80 23.55 24.60

Support 21.60 20.50 20.00

Commentary

Overview: NLCS is clearly in a down trend. It lost 37% since its peak middle of June. That said, traders can take advantage of a possible quick bounce. At the current levels, the MACD on the daily frame is significantly below the zero line. Although that is a bearish sign, the stability of the MACD’s Histogram indicates ease of selling pressure a possible short-term bounce. Softness in selling pressure is also exhibited as the RSI is stabilizing at the oversold area. On the hourly chart, the same can be said about the MACD and its Histogram. Reinforcing the previously mentioned points, the MACD is pointing north at this point. The RSI is challenging the oversold area by breaking above it, which is also a bullish sign over the short term. Expected Price Target: QR22.80 – QR23.55 Shor term long position can be taken into consideration at current levels with a hand on the trigger for a quick trade. Suggested Stop-Loss: QR21.60 A break below the QR21.60 stop-loss signifies continuation of the overall bearish trend.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 12,486.80 12,237.88 12,368.90 12,449.85 12,580.87 12,711.89 12,792.84 12,923.86 13,576.09 13,498.59 12,920.55

Total Return 18,623.95 18,252.69 18,448.11 18,568.83 18,764.25 18,959.67 19,080.39 19,275.81 20,248.62 20,133.02 19,210.35

All Share 3,193.80 3,138.87 3,168.54 3,186.87 3,216.53 3,246.20 3,264.53 3,294.19 3,436.76 3,414.62 3,275.94

Al Rayan Islamic 4,214.01 4,126.58 4,173.95 4,203.21 4,250.57 4,297.94 4,327.20 4,374.56 4,573.08 4,568.02 4,256.30

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 45.50 44.60 44.94 45.16 45.50 45.84 46.06 46.40 51.77 53.43 50.03

CBQK 70.70 68.97 69.69 70.14 70.87 71.59 72.04 72.77 72.62 70.98 68.36

DHBK 56.90 54.83 55.67 56.19 57.03 57.87 58.39 59.23 58.88 59.30 60.64

QIBK 100.10 94.77 97.02 98.41 100.67 102.92 104.31 106.57 111.01 111.17 98.29

QIIK 80.90 79.77 80.15 80.38 80.77 81.15 81.38 81.77 86.71 86.86 83.41

Insurance

QATI 88.00 86.40 87.13 87.57 88.30 89.03 89.47 90.20 96.79 95.25 83.97

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 119.50 117.17 118.50 119.33 120.67 122.00 122.83 124.17 127.93 122.73 100.11

Industrials

IQCD 177.10 172.03 174.90 176.67 179.53 182.40 184.17 187.03 190.79 186.84 185.32

QEWS 189.00 185.67 186.81 187.52 188.67 189.81 190.52 191.67 188.67 187.47 184.10

GISS 92.40 87.47 90.14 91.79 94.47 97.14 98.79 101.47 119.21 117.96 102.09

QIGD 42.20 42.00 42.10 42.15 42.25 42.35 42.40 42.50 50.92 54.16 55.98

Real Estate

BRES 44.75 43.18 43.91 44.36 45.08 45.81 46.26 46.98 44.51 42.87 40.05

UDCD 24.80 24.33 24.52 24.64 24.83 25.02 25.14 25.33 27.37 27.95 25.69

ERES 16.90 16.63 16.79 16.88 17.03 17.19 17.28 17.43 19.18 19.88 21.49

MRDS 20.70 20.05 20.35 20.53 20.82 21.12 21.30 21.59 23.32 22.67 19.85

Telecommunication

ORDS 115.00 113.00 113.76 114.24 115.00 115.76 116.24 117.00 125.17 127.29 135.70

VFQS 16.30 15.37 15.79 16.05 16.47 16.89 17.15 17.57 19.89 20.16 18.08

Transportation

QGTS 23.04 22.72 22.85 22.93 23.06 23.19 23.27 23.40 24.12 24.12 23.29

QNNS 97.00 94.80 95.72 96.28 97.20 98.12 98.68 99.60 98.38 96.66 95.48 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.