15 December Daily technical trader

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Text of 15 December Daily technical trader

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6

    Daily Technical Trader Qatar

    Monday, 15 December 2014

    Stocks Covered Today

    Ticker Price Target

    CBQK 65.40 66.20

    QNCD 120.00 123.70

    QSE Index

    Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

    Last 11,114.43 -5.9 10.5

    Resistance/Support

    Levels 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 11,230 11,430 11,640

    Support 10,900 10,600 10,300

    QSE Index Commentary

    Overview: Although the Index had a sharp drop last session and could exhibit further weakness, signs of a possible bounce are coming together. On the daily chart, it is visible that the MACD is at an extreme level. This is not bullish but it does indicate possible extreme overselling pressure. The RSI is also at an extreme oversold level. The intraday show more promising signs as the Histogram MACD showed loss of selling pressure at the end of last session. This potential recovery is expected to be short lived but traders can use it their advantage. Expected Target Level: 11,600 It is essential to mention that this possible bounce should be used carefully and no sign of change in trend is visible yet. Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 10,900

    QSE Index (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    QE Summary

    Market Indicators 15 Dec 14 14 Dec 14 %Ch.

    Value Traded (QR mn) 957.1 720.8 32.8

    Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 614.8 652.3 -5.7

    Volume (mn) 22.5 13.1 71.8

    Number of Trans. 9,804 7,964 23.1

    Companies Traded 43 42 2.4

    Market Breadth 0:43 2:39

    QE Indices

    Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

    Total Return 16,577.07 -5.9 14.6

    All Share Index 2,835.29 -6.3 14.2

    Banks 2,896.68 -5.7 17.6

    Industrials 3,673.42 -5.6 15.2

    Transportation 2,073.84 -4.9 17.8

    Real Estate 2,038.56 -9.9 13.0

    Insurance 3,258.85 -6.3 12.4

    Telecoms 1,333.74 -2.8 29.2

    Consumer 6,060.77 -8.9 15.0

    Al Rayan Islamic 3,661.79 -7.9 15.1

    RSI 14 (Over Bought)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    RSI 14 (Over Sold)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    AHCS 11.52 -9.9 8.3

    MPHC 27.10 -9.7 9.8

    NLCS 18.00 -10.0 10.7

    QIGD 34.20 -10.0 11.1

    ERES 13.77 -10.0 11.3

    QSE Index (30Min)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6

    CBQK

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 65.40 -1.21 371,092

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 66.20 67.20 68.30

    Support 64.00 63.00 62.00

    Commentary

    Overview: The Commercial Bank followed suit with the general market. It lost almost 5% from Thursdays closing before recovering and closing almost at the session high of QR65.40. This closing created a bullish Hammer candlestick. It is a reversal pattern from the previous bearish move. The shadows size of that hammer candlestick is several times the size of the body. This signifies bullish momentum built into the previous session, which may continue. Expected Target Price: QR66.20 QR67.20 This should be treated as a careful, hit and run trade. The overall trend is still down. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR63.00 Trading below the above level may dip the price to QR62.00

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6

    QNCD

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 119.00 -2.46 49,187

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 120.00 123.70 127.00

    Support 113.00 106.00 100.00

    Commentary

    Overview: The cement manufacturing leader bounced off after a sharp drop from the QR113.00 price. This bounce has created a reversal hammer. The bounce may have started a new price range between QR113.00 and QR147.00. Coupled with intraday reversing signatures given by the MACD and the RSI indicators, the bounce in the coming session is possible. This trade should be treated with caution as the spread can be an issue with the name. It is important to note that on the intraday chart, we see that the MACD is at an extreme level below the zero line and the RSI is at the oversold area trying to push above it. Expected Retreat Price: QR123.70 QR127.00 The confirmation that is needed to start a buy position is a break above the QR120.00 for at least half an hour to an hour. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR113.00 A break below the price should drag the price to the lower support level of QR106.00.

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6

    Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels

    Ticker Close 3rd

    2nd

    1st

    Pivot 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

    QSE Index 11,114.43 10,710.99 10,863.78 10,958.18 11,110.97 11,263.76 11,358.16 11,510.95 13,323.96 13,467.32 12,938.49

    Total Return 16,577.07 15,975.34 16,203.23 16,344.02 16,571.90 16,799.79 16,940.58 17,168.46 19,872.57 20,086.38 19,259.21

    All Share 2,835.29 2,727.84 2,773.01 2,800.92 2,846.09 2,891.26 2,919.17 2,964.34 3,377.85 3,408.56 3,283.25

    Al Rayan Islamic 3,661.79 3,473.78 3,565.33 3,621.89 3,713.45 3,805.00 3,861.56 3,953.12 4,488.75 4,561.53 4,283.76

    Banks & Financials Services

    MARK 40.00 37.47 38.57 39.26 40.37 41.47 42.16 43.27 50.16 52.87 50.22

    CBQK 65.40 62.13 63.09 63.68 64.63 65.59 66.18 67.13 72.07 71.10 68.60

    DHBK 50.30 46.83 48.34 49.27 50.78 52.29 53.22 54.73 58.21 59.16 60.27

    QIBK 87.90 83.10 84.93 86.07 87.90 89.73 90.87 92.70 108.47 111.21 98.87

    QIIK 71.10 67.23 69.45 70.82 73.03 75.25 76.62 78.83 85.08 86.53 83.64

    Insurance

    QATI 76.10 69.37 72.04 73.69 76.37 79.04 80.69 83.37 94.61 95.15 84.57

    Consumer Goods & Services

    MCGS 97.50 95.83 96.79 97.38 98.33 99.29 99.88 100.83 126.04 124.82 102.04

    Industrials

    IQCD 168.00 158.00 160.87 162.64 165.50 168.37 170.14 173.00 188.73 186.97 184.94

    QEWS 171.00 163.00 165.71 167.39 170.10 172.81 174.49 177.20 187.78 187.46 184.50

    GISS 72.70 71.10 72.02 72.58 73.50 74.42 74.98 75.90 114.34 117.14 102.94

    QIGD 34.20 32.10 33.30 34.05 35.25 36.45 37.20 38.40 48.30 53.03 55.93

    Real Estate

    BRES 37.00 35.47 36.31 36.83 37.67 38.51 39.03 39.87 44.83 43.11 40.47

    UDCD 21.29 20.14 20.80 21.21 21.86 22.52 22.93 23.58 26.65 27.90 25.78

    ERES 13.77 13.15 13.51 13.72 14.08 14.44 14.65 15.01 18.65 19.39 21.47

    MRDS 16.75 16.06 16.45 16.70 17.10 17.49 17.74 18.14 22.68 22.77 20.11

    Telecommunication

    ORDS 111.60 101.73 104.60 106.37 109.23 112.10 113.87 116.73 122.15 126.14 134.46

    VFQS 14.60 13.99 14.34 14.56 14.90 15.25 15.47 15.81 19.16 20.01 18.23

    Transportation

    QGTS 20.80 18.93 19.51 19.86 20.43 21.01 21.36 21.93 23.79 24.12 23.31

    QNNS 87.80 78.40 81.88 84.02 87.50 90.98 93.12 96.60 98.17 96.63 95.45 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6

    Definitions:

    Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

    and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

    lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

    compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

    Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

    Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

    security price to head lower.

    SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

    considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

    price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

    Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

    MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

    a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

    RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

    use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to p