8 December Daily technical trader

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  • 1. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6Daily Technical Trader QatarMonday, 08 December 2014Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Tgt.VFQS17.2118.00QGTS23.1623.90QSE Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)Last12,640.67-0.87.0Resistance/Support (Daily) Levels 1st 2nd 3rdResistance12,90013,00013, 230Support12,45012,00011,400QSE Index CommentaryOverview:The Index is stabilizing above the 12,450 level. This is a significant level to stay above for a rebound to the 13,000. It reached the lower side of a downtrend channel (denoted in red) on the daily chart. Thus, we may see the Index range bound and will be looking for a direction at this point.Expected Target : 13,000This target, or any bounces, should be used as selling points.Suggested Stop-Loss: 12,450A drop below this level can drag the Index all the way to 12,000.QSE Index (Daily)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS ResearchQE Summary Market Indicators 07 Dec 14 04 Dec 14 %Ch.Value Traded (QR mn)291.7565.6-48.4Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn)691.1696.9-0.8Volume (mn)5.79.6-40.6Number of Trans.3,6285,746-36.9Companies Traded4041-2.4Market Breadth11:2631:6QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSITotal Return18,853.44-0.830.6All Share Index3,229.52-0.831.4Banks3,209.72-0.931.9Industrials4,184.40-1.130.1Transportation2,329.150.341.7Real Estate2,511.11-0.631.3Insurance3,739.44-1.328.0Telecoms1,446.170.641.0Consumer7,275.74-0.441.4Al Rayan Islamic4,324.25-0.235.7RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSIIHGS221.500.883.0RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSINLCS22.200.724.3SIIS15.85-2.825.1AHCS13.82-1.326.6ERES17.00-1.126.8QIGD43.000.126.9QSE Index (30Min)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

2. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6VFQS Price % Ch. VolumeLast17.211.12543,905Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1st 2nd 3rdResistance18.0018.4019.00Support16.0015.5014.30CommentaryOverview:VFQS is in a clear downtrend and is now challenging the drop. The name stabilized above the QR16.00 level last week. We believe there is an advantage for traders to trade these expected bounces. The daily frame reveals while the MACD is below the zero line, its Histogram is providing signs of temporary recovery. The RSI broke away from the oversold area, which is also a positive signal. On the hourly chart, we can clearly see a double bottom formation. The peak of that formation is our target price.Expected Price Target: QR18.00 QR18.40A break above the QR17.50 level is a must for this trade. The QR17.50 level is the border of the downtrend line. That line has to be pierced for the name to bounce.Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR16.90This trade is suggested against a downtrend, which can be risky. We believe this risk can be mitigated by using a tight stop-loss as we suggest.(Daily)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research 3. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6QGTS Price % Ch. VolumeLast23.160.04132,788Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1st 2nd 3rdResistance23.3023.9024.40Support22.8022.2021.40CommentaryOverview:QGTS has stabilized above QR23.00 for the past four sessions. This stability may offer a trading opportunity as the name is going through a range. On the daily, the MACDs Histogram has started to exhibit stability. The RSI is coming close to the oversold area but refusing to go below it, indicating more buyers stepping in at the these levels. On the hourly, the MACD is below the zero line but facing upward. The RSI is at the neutral zone. The short-term downtrend line is still intact, and trading above it is a primary indicator to buy the share.Expected Price Target: QR23.90 QR24.40QR23.26 is the breakaway price for this trade; a break above this price initiates our buy recommendation.Suggested Stop-Loss: QR22.80A break below this level indicates further decline with an expected drop to QR22.20.(Daily)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research 4. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3rd 2nd 1st Pivot 1st 2nd 3rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMAQSE Index12,640.6712,488.4812,560.2712,604.63 12,676.4312,748.2212,792.5812,864.3813,514.1413,505.3212,932.18Total Return18,853.4418,626.4618,733.5418,799.69 18,906.7719,013.8519,080.0019,187.0820,156.2120,143.0619,234.00All Share3,229.523,194.953,211.173,221.20 3,237.433,253.653,263.683,279.913,422.603,416.653,279.68Al Rayan Islamic4,324.254,268.714,289.074,301.66 4,322.024,342.384,354.974,375.334,553.744,572.204,266.50 Banks & Financials ServicesMARK46.5045.5045.8446.06 46.4046.7446.9647.3051.3553.3650.09CBQK70.0069.0069.5769.93 70.5071.0771.4372.0072.5071.0868.46DHBK57.0055.8056.1856.42 56.8057.1857.4257.8058.6859.3060.56QIBK101.0099.27100.15100.69 101.57102.45102.99103.87110.32111.3498.50QIIK83.8080.6781.7782.46 83.5784.6785.3686.4786.3186.8883.52 InsuranceQATI86.5084.8385.6086.07 86.8387.6088.0788.8396.3295.3684.19 Consumer Goods & ServicesMCGS125.30121.83123.32124.24 125.73127.22128.14129.63127.73123.55100.77 IndustrialsIQCD182.00179.20180.54181.36 182.70184.04184.86186.20190.24187.01185.36QEWS188.40187.93188.09188.18 188.33188.49188.58188.73188.48187.65184.31GISS97.5092.5095.0296.58 99.10101.62103.18105.70118.14117.96102.41QIGD43.0042.0742.5342.81 43.2743.7344.0144.4750.2353.9055.99 Real EstateBRES46.1044.5745.0345.31 45.7746.2346.5146.9744.6643.0140.20UDCD25.1524.3524.6424.81 25.1025.3925.5625.8527.1927.9725.73ERES17.0016.7716.8816.95 17.0717.1817.2517.3719.0719.7921.50MRDS21.4920.8421.0621.20 21.4321.6521.7922.0223.1922.7519.94 TelecommunicationORDS118.00116.00116.96117.55 118.50119.46120.05121.00124.33127.07135.39VFQS17.2116.8917.0317.12 17.2617.4017.4917.6319.6920.1418.13 TransportationQGTS23.1622.6822.8422.93 23.0923.2523.3423.5024.0424.1423.30QNNS98.0094.7395.8496.53 97.6398.7499.43100.5398.4296.7495.55Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price 5. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6Definitions:Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower.SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels.Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a securitys price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels. 6. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 6ContactsSaugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan KeushgerianHead of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research AnalystTel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qaSahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPCManager HNWI Head of Sales Trading Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+97