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COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6 Daily Technical Trader Qatar Monday, 08 December 2014 Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Tgt. VFQS 17.21 18.00 QGTS 23.16 23.90 QSE Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 12,640.67 -0.8 7.0 Resistance/Support (Daily) Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 12,900 13,000 13, 230 Support 12,450 12,000 11,400 QSE Index Commentary Overview: The Index is stabilizing above the 12,450 level. This is a significant level to stay above for a rebound to the 13,000. It reached the lower side of a downtrend channel (denoted in red) on the daily chart. Thus, we may see the Index range bound and will be looking for a direction at this point. Expected Target : 13,000 This target, or any bounces, should be used as selling points. Suggested Stop-Loss: 12,450 A drop below this level can drag the Index all the way to 12,000. QSE Index (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research QE Summary Market Indicators 07 Dec 14 04 Dec 14 %Ch. Value Traded (QR mn) 291.7 565.6 -48.4 Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 691.1 696.9 -0.8 Volume (mn) 5.7 9.6 -40.6 Number of Trans. 3,628 5,746 -36.9 Companies Traded 40 41 -2.4 Market Breadth 11:26 31:6 QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Total Return 18,853.44 -0.8 30.6 All Share Index 3,229.52 -0.8 31.4 Banks 3,209.72 -0.9 31.9 Industrials 4,184.40 -1.1 30.1 Transportation 2,329.15 0.3 41.7 Real Estate 2,511.11 -0.6 31.3 Insurance 3,739.44 -1.3 28.0 Telecoms 1,446.17 0.6 41.0 Consumer 7,275.74 -0.4 41.4 Al Rayan Islamic 4,324.25 -0.2 35.7 RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI IHGS 221.50 0.8 83.0 RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI NLCS 22.20 0.7 24.3 SIIS 15.85 -2.8 25.1 AHCS 13.82 -1.3 26.6 ERES 17.00 -1.1 26.8 QIGD 43.00 0.1 26.9 QSE Index (30Min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

8 December Daily technical trader

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Page 1: 8 December Daily technical trader

COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6

Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Monday, 08 December 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Tgt.

VFQS 17.21 18.00

QGTS 23.16 23.90

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 12,640.67 -0.8 7.0

Resistance/Support (Daily)

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,900 13,000 13, 230

Support 12,450 12,000 11,400

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The Index is stabilizing above the 12,450 level. This is a significant level to stay above for a rebound to the 13,000. It reached the lower side of a downtrend channel (denoted in red) on the daily chart. Thus, we may see the Index range bound and will be looking for a direction at this point. Expected Target : 13,000 This target, or any bounces, should be used as selling points. Suggested Stop-Loss: 12,450 A drop below this level can drag the Index all the way to 12,000.

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 07 Dec 14 04 Dec 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 291.7 565.6 -48.4

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 691.1 696.9 -0.8

Volume (mn) 5.7 9.6 -40.6

Number of Trans. 3,628 5,746 -36.9

Companies Traded 40 41 -2.4

Market Breadth 11:26 31:6 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 18,853.44 -0.8 30.6

All Share Index 3,229.52 -0.8 31.4

Banks 3,209.72 -0.9 31.9

Industrials 4,184.40 -1.1 30.1

Transportation 2,329.15 0.3 41.7

Real Estate 2,511.11 -0.6 31.3

Insurance 3,739.44 -1.3 28.0

Telecoms 1,446.17 0.6 41.0

Consumer 7,275.74 -0.4 41.4

Al Rayan Islamic 4,324.25 -0.2 35.7

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IHGS 221.50 0.8 83.0

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

NLCS 22.20 0.7 24.3

SIIS 15.85 -2.8 25.1

AHCS 13.82 -1.3 26.6

ERES 17.00 -1.1 26.8

QIGD 43.00 0.1 26.9

QSE Index (30Min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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VFQS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 17.21 1.12 543,905

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 18.00 18.40 19.00

Support 16.00 15.50 14.30

Commentary

Overview: VFQS is in a clear downtrend and is now challenging the drop. The name stabilized above the QR16.00 level last week. We believe there is an advantage for traders to trade these expected bounces. The daily frame reveals while the MACD is below the zero line, its Histogram is providing signs of temporary recovery. The RSI broke away from the oversold area, which is also a positive signal. On the hourly chart, we can clearly see a double bottom formation. The peak of that formation is our target price. Expected Price Target: QR18.00 – QR18.40 A break above the QR17.50 level is a must for this trade. The QR17.50 level is the border of the downtrend line. That line has to be pierced for the name to bounce. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR16.90 This trade is suggested against a downtrend, which can be risky. We believe this risk can be mitigated by using a tight stop-loss as we suggest.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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QGTS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 23.16 0.04 132,788

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 23.30 23.90 24.40

Support 22.80 22.20 21.40

Commentary

Overview: QGTS has stabilized above QR23.00 for the past four sessions. This stability may offer a trading opportunity as the name is going through a range. On the daily, the MACD’s Histogram has started to exhibit stability. The RSI is coming close to the oversold area but refusing to go below it, indicating more buyers stepping in at the these levels. On the hourly, the MACD is below the zero line but facing upward. The RSI is at the neutral zone. The short-term downtrend line is still intact, and trading above it is a primary indicator to buy the share. Expected Price Target: QR23.90 – QR24.40 QR23.26 is the breakaway price for this trade; a break above this price initiates our buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss: QR22.80 A break below this level indicates further decline with an expected drop to QR22.20.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 12,640.67 12,488.48 12,560.27 12,604.63 12,676.43 12,748.22 12,792.58 12,864.38 13,514.14 13,505.32 12,932.18

Total Return 18,853.44 18,626.46 18,733.54 18,799.69 18,906.77 19,013.85 19,080.00 19,187.08 20,156.21 20,143.06 19,234.00

All Share 3,229.52 3,194.95 3,211.17 3,221.20 3,237.43 3,253.65 3,263.68 3,279.91 3,422.60 3,416.65 3,279.68

Al Rayan Islamic 4,324.25 4,268.71 4,289.07 4,301.66 4,322.02 4,342.38 4,354.97 4,375.33 4,553.74 4,572.20 4,266.50

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 46.50 45.50 45.84 46.06 46.40 46.74 46.96 47.30 51.35 53.36 50.09

CBQK 70.00 69.00 69.57 69.93 70.50 71.07 71.43 72.00 72.50 71.08 68.46

DHBK 57.00 55.80 56.18 56.42 56.80 57.18 57.42 57.80 58.68 59.30 60.56

QIBK 101.00 99.27 100.15 100.69 101.57 102.45 102.99 103.87 110.32 111.34 98.50

QIIK 83.80 80.67 81.77 82.46 83.57 84.67 85.36 86.47 86.31 86.88 83.52

Insurance

QATI 86.50 84.83 85.60 86.07 86.83 87.60 88.07 88.83 96.32 95.36 84.19

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 125.30 121.83 123.32 124.24 125.73 127.22 128.14 129.63 127.73 123.55 100.77

Industrials

IQCD 182.00 179.20 180.54 181.36 182.70 184.04 184.86 186.20 190.24 187.01 185.36

QEWS 188.40 187.93 188.09 188.18 188.33 188.49 188.58 188.73 188.48 187.65 184.31

GISS 97.50 92.50 95.02 96.58 99.10 101.62 103.18 105.70 118.14 117.96 102.41

QIGD 43.00 42.07 42.53 42.81 43.27 43.73 44.01 44.47 50.23 53.90 55.99

Real Estate

BRES 46.10 44.57 45.03 45.31 45.77 46.23 46.51 46.97 44.66 43.01 40.20

UDCD 25.15 24.35 24.64 24.81 25.10 25.39 25.56 25.85 27.19 27.97 25.73

ERES 17.00 16.77 16.88 16.95 17.07 17.18 17.25 17.37 19.07 19.79 21.50

MRDS 21.49 20.84 21.06 21.20 21.43 21.65 21.79 22.02 23.19 22.75 19.94

Telecommunication

ORDS 118.00 116.00 116.96 117.55 118.50 119.46 120.05 121.00 124.33 127.07 135.39

VFQS 17.21 16.89 17.03 17.12 17.26 17.40 17.49 17.63 19.69 20.14 18.13

Transportation

QGTS 23.16 22.68 22.84 22.93 23.09 23.25 23.34 23.50 24.04 24.14 23.30

QNNS 98.00 94.73 95.84 96.53 97.63 98.74 99.43 100.53 98.42 96.74 95.55 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.