25 December Daily technical trader

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  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6

    Daily Technical Trader Qatar

    Thursday, 25 December 2014

    Stocks Covered Today

    Ticker Price Target

    DHBK 56.70 54.00

    SIIS 14.85 14.00

    QSE Index

    Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

    Last 12,357.62 1.4 14.0

    Resistance/Support

    Levels 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 12,430 12,600 12,800

    Support 12,200 11,430 11,230

    QSE Index Commentary

    Overview: The Index is stable in a tight intraday price range. The range is bound between 12,430 and 12,000; a break above or below the borders of this range will most likely determine the next direction for the overall Exchange. Any breach is expected to come with volatility as seen previously by the sharp V-shaped bounce as long as the Index is still trading below its SMAs. Expected Target Level: 12,430 12,600 The 12,600 target needs a sustained break above 12,430. Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 12,200

    QSE Index (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    QE Summary

    Market Indicators 24 Dec 14 23 Dec 14 %Ch.

    Value Traded (QR mn) 659.5 707.8 -6.8

    Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 674.7 665.2 1.4

    Volume (mn) 13.2 16.3 -19.0

    Number of Trans. 6,300 7,778 -19.0

    Companies Traded 42 40 5.0

    Market Breadth 33:7 9:29

    QE Indices

    Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

    Total Return 18,431.28 1.4 48.0

    All Share Index 3,140.57 1.4 47.7

    Banks 3,229.94 1.3 50.4

    Industrials 3,997.36 1.6 45.6

    Transportation 2,264.49 1.4 50.5

    Real Estate 2,275.09 2.3 43.0

    Insurance 3,803.11 0.4 54.1

    Telecoms 1,419.55 -0.1 49.2

    Consumer 6,883.48 1.6 48.5

    Al Rayan Islamic 4,111.16 1.7 47.5

    RSI 14 (Over Bought)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    RSI 14 (Over Sold)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    IHGS 98.10 -9.9 18.0

    AHCS 11.16 0.1 25.2

    QSE Index (30min)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6

    DHBK

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 56.70 0.18 560,601

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 58.00 60.00 61.80

    Support 55.40 54.00 52.00

    Commentary

    Overview: The bank made a shooting star candlestick (denoted in red circle), which is considered a reversal candle. The name is trading below its moving averages, and has reached an area of strong resistance. The indicators are tilted toward more bearish signals than bullish ones. On the daily, the MACD is still below the zero line and the RSI is at the neutral area. On the hourly chart, it is clear that the MACD is losing its strength and the RSI has dipped below the oversold area. As a result, loss in price momentum is expected. Expected Price Retreat: QR54.00 QR52.00 A breach above the QR58.00 price may indicate a continuation to the second resistance level of QR60.00; however, a breach below the QR56.20 price level triggers our sell recommendation.

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6

    SIIS

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 14.85 1.37 184,435

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 15.00 15.80 16.35

    Support 14.40 14.00 12.25

    Commentary

    Overview: SIIS created three reversal candles three days in a row. These candles are the Hanging Man, the Tombstone, and another Hanging Man (circled in red). These candles imply indecision between traders and the name is looking for a direction. In addition, the name reached an old resistance area created late June. On the daily chart, the MACD is extended below the zero line, and the RSI is reaching the neutral area. On the intraday chart, the price is approaching a short-term downtrend resistance line. Expected Price Retreat: QR14.00 QR13.20 It is important to note that the name could break the QR15.00 upward. A strong break above QR15.00 could spike the price to QR15.75. Yet, our recommendation is stay cautious and sell with a drop below QR14.40 because that will most likely trigger panic selling that can take the price to QR13.20

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6

    Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

    Ticker Close 3rd

    2nd

    1st

    Pivot 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

    QSE Index 12,357.62 12,202.14 12,250.49 12,280.37 12,328.72 12,377.07 12,406.95 12,455.30 13,066.44 13,371.71 12,942.12

    Total Return 18,431.28 18,199.39 18,271.51 18,316.06 18,388.17 18,460.29 18,504.84 18,576.95 19,488.47 19,943.78 19,282.75

    All Share 3,140.57 3,101.46 3,112.94 3,120.04 3,131.53 3,143.01 3,150.11 3,161.60 3,316.82 3,386.45 3,285.63

    Al Rayan Islamic 4,111.16 4,029.48 4,056.45 4,073.12 4,100.09 4,127.06 4,143.73 4,170.70 4,385.70 4,523.60 4,302.01

    Banks & Financials Services

    MARK 46.70 45.97 46.31 46.52 46.87 47.21 47.42 47.77 48.75 52.12 50.43

    CBQK 66.70 65.50 65.92 66.18 66.60 67.02 67.28 67.70 71.22 70.80 68.67

    DHBK 56.70 55.17 55.85 56.28 56.97 57.65 58.08 58.77 57.62 58.80 59.88

    QIBK 102.90 102.70 102.81 102.89 103.00 103.11 103.19 103.30 106.06 110.53 99.55

    QIIK 82.50 79.83 80.60 81.07 81.83 82.60 83.07 83.83 83.58 85.92 83.75

    Insurance

    QATI 89.00 85.93 86.93 87.54 88.53 89.53 90.14 91.13 92.42 94.69 85.21

    Consumer Goods & Services

    MCGS 118.10 114.70 116.61 117.79 119.70 121.61 122.79 124.70 122.96 125.44 103.53

    Industrials

    IQCD 174.90 171.50 172.76 173.54 174.80 176.06 176.84 178.10 186.37 186.42 184.06

    QEWS 190.00 186.00 187.15 187.85 189.00 190.15 190.85 192.00 186.44 187.00 184.74

    GISS 94.50 90.70 92.27 93.23 94.80 96.37 97.33 98.90 109.36 115.24 103.49

    QIGD 40.60 39.33 39.72 39.95 40.33 40.72 40.95 41.33 45.62 51.85 55.81

    Real Estate

    BRES 44.50 40.90 41.93 42.57 43.60 44.63 45.27 46.30 44.73 42.82 40.74

    UDCD 23.30 22.80 23.02 23.15 23.37 23.59 23.72 23.94 25.78 27.57 25.83

    ERES 14.95 14.74 14.82 14.88 14.97 15.05 15.11 15.20 17.80 18.77 21.39

    MRDS 17.82 17.54 17.67 17.76 17.89 18.02 18.11 18.24 21.78 22.66 20.28

    Telecommunication

    ORDS 118.80 116.53 117.22 117.65 118.33 119.02 119.45 120.13 119.75 124.76 133.28

    VFQS 15.53 15.38 15.46 15.52 15.61 15.69 15.75 15.84 18.33 19.68 18.33

    Transportation

    QGTS 22.95 22.42 22.59 22.69 22.87 23.04 23.14 23.32 23.44 23.99 23.30

    QNNS 96.50 94.23 94.88 95.28 95.93 96.58 96.98 97.63 97.71 96.32 95.37 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6

    Definitions:

    Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

    and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

    lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

    compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

    Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

    Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

    security price to head lower.

    SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

    considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

    price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

    Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

    MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

    a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

    RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

    use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

    considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

    Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a securitys price activity over a c