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Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and AnalysisFEBRUARY 9, 2016
M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y
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O N E T H I N G A M E R ICA NS A L L A G R E E O N : G O V E RNME NT N O T W O R K IN G
Source: Gallup
vCongress' job approval is 16%
v34% of Americans are satisfied with our system of government and the way it works (down by half from 15 years ago)
vDysfunctional government was overall the single most important U.S. problem Americans mentioned throughout 2015
v32% of Americans have a great deal or fair amount of confidence in the legislative branch of government, within a few percentage points of the lowest reading in Gallup's history of this measure
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M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CAN V O T ERS WA N T A L E A D E R W H O W I L L B R I N G G R E ATER C H A N GES , E V E N I F H E / S H E H A S L E S S E X P E RI ENC E
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, January 9-13, 2016
Thinking about the 2016 presidential elections, which of the following statements comes closers to your point of view.
36%
61%
3%Depends / Not sure
Statement A: This is a time when it is important to look for a more experienced and tested person even if he or she brings fewer changes
to the current policies.
Statement B: This is a time when it is important to look for
a person who will bring greater changes to the current
policies even if he or she is less experiences and tests.
Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, January 9-13, 2016 PAGE 5
B U T I S 2 0 1 6 R E A L LY A C H A N G E E L E C TIO N?
Strongly Democrat33%
Not strongly Democrat
13%Not strongly Republican
10%
Strongly Republican
33%
Other5%
Not sure6%
Putting aside for a moment the question of who each party’s nominee might be, what is your preference for the outcome of the 2016 presidential election – that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican be elected president? And do you strongly prefer a
[Democrat/Republican], or is your preference not that strong?
Total Republican:43%
Total Democrat:46%
November 2007Republican 39%Democrat 49%Not sure 11%
2 0 1 6 – E L E C T I O N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :R E P U B L I CA N N O M I N A T I O N
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T H E G O P PAT H T O A P R E S I DEN TIA L N O M I NATI ONThe calendar is shorter. Republicans shortened their primary process to give their nominee more time to raise money and campaign for the November election.
Phase 1: February133 delegates at stake5.4% of total awarded
Phase 2: Early March963 delegates at stake39% of total awarded
Phase 3: Late March474 delegates at stake19% of total awarded
Phase 4: April – June902 delegates at stake36% of total awarded
133 963 474 902
Candidates need 1,237 delegates to win the nomination.
Total = 2,472
Source: The Wall Street Journal
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S TA R TED W I T H 1 7 , N O W D O W N T O 9 C A N D I DATES . H O W M A N Y W I L L B E L E F T A F T E R N E W H A M PS HIR E?
Dropped Out
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Rubio Trump Cruz
Chances of becoming the Republican presidential nominee
Before Iowa caucus After Iowa caucus
51%
30%
8%
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T R U M P L E A DS I N N AT I O NAL P O L LI NG; B I G S H I F T I N P R E D IC TIO NS M A R K ETS F O L L OWI NG I O WA
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Feb, 2016
12% 14%9%
9%7% 6% 5% 5%
6%5% 6% 6%
8%13%
18% 19%
11%
8%6%
9% 10%
15%
10%
15%
5%
15%
31%28% 28%
34%39%
35%
10% 8%
14%17%
21%
14%8% 8%
June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 Republican Primary PreferenceAmong Republican and Republican leaning voters
Bush Cruz Rubio Trump Carson
44%
33%
Source: PredictWise
13%
Rubio was at 61%
before NH
debate
Trump was at 22%
before NH
debate
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T E D C R U Z W O N T H E I O WA R E P U BLI CAN C A U C US, W I T H T H E H IGH T U R N OUT O F E VA N GEL ICAL A N D B O R N -A GAI N C H R IS TIA NS A I D I N G H I S V I C T ORY
Source CNN
Candidate % of Votes Number ofDelegates
Ted Cruz 28% 8Donald Trump 24% 7Marco Rubio 23% 7Ben Carson 9% 3
Jeb Bush 3% 1Carly Fiorina 2% 1John Kasich 2% 0
Mike Huckabee 2% 0Chris Christie 2% 0
Rick Santorum 1% 0
34%
22% 21%
64%
18%29% 26%
36%
Cruz supporter Trump supporter Rubio supporter Total
% of born-again and evangelical Christian voters at the Iowa Republican caucus
Born-again/evangelical ChristianNot born-again/evangelical Christian
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N E W H A M P SH IRE – W H AT’ S AT S TA K E?
Source: Huffington Post
New Hampshire Primary Information
When? Tuesday,February 9th
Number of Delegates 23
Voter Eligibility Open Primary
Delegate Selection Proportional
Key Component
400,000 undeclared voters
New Hampshire has gone differently than
Iowa in each of the last six open elections on the Republican side.
In 2012, Mitt Romney won the Republican
primary in New Hampshire with 39% of
the votes.
2012 results by County
Source: PoliticalMaps.org
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T R U M P H A S C O N S IST ENTLY L E A D I N N E W H A M P SH IRE P O L L S
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Feb, 2016
14%13% 11%
9%8%
8% 7%8%
10%
5% 5% 5%5% 6%
8%11% 11% 12%
7% 6% 5%5%
8% 10%12% 13%
15%
12%
15%
21%25% 27% 27% 27%
30% 31%
5%6%
7% 9%11% 11%
8%4% 3%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 Republican Primary PreferenceAmong Republican and Republican leaning voters in New Hampshire
Bush Cruz Rubio Trump Carson
Candidate Average
Donald Trump 31.0%Marco Rubio 14.7%John Kasich 14.1%
Ted Cruz 11.9%Jeb Bush 10.2%
Chris Christie 5.8%Carly Fiorina 4.6%Ben Carson 2.5%
HuffPost Pollster Trendas of February 9th, 2016
Ø In the history of New Hampshire presidential primaries, there has never been a Democratic or Republican contest where five or more candidates won 10% or more of the vote.
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R E C E NT O N L I NE A C T I VI TY S U G G ESTS C R U Z M I G H T D O B E T T ER T H A N E X P E CTED I N N E W H A M P S HIRE
Source: Brandwatch
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2/6/16 2/7/16 2/8/16 2/9/16
National
Ben Carson Carly Fiorina Chris Christie Donald Trump
Jeb Bush John Kasich Marco Rubio Ted Cruz
0
50
100
150
200
250
2/6/16 2/7/16 2/8/16 2/9/16
New Hampshire
Ben Carson Carly Fiorina Chris Christie Donald Trump
Jeb Bush John Kasich Marco Rubio Ted Cruz
Volume
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N E W H A M P SH IRE P R E DIC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls, national polls, and endorsementsPredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster
6%
7%
7%
78%
John Kasich
Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
PredictWise Chance of Winning New Hampshire PrimaryAs of February 9th
70%
10%
10%
6%
Donald Trump
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Jeb Bush
FiveThirtyEight.com Chance of Winning New Hampshire PrimaryAs of February 9th
Source: CNN/WMUR, February 4-8, 2016 PAGE 15
M O S T N H G O P P R I M ARY V O T E RS A R E U N C E RTAI N O F W H O T H E Y W I L L S U P P ORT, B U T N E A R LY A T H I R D W O U LD D E F INI TELY N O T S U P P ORT T R U MP
46%
24%31%
Definitely decidedLeaning toward someoneStill trying to decide
Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire primary, are you leaning toward someone, or have you considered some candidate but are still trying to decide?
1%
3%
4%
4%
7%
13%
13%
32%
Carson
Kasich
Christie
Fiorina
Rubio
Bush
Cruz
Trump
Which of the candidates who are either running or considering running for the Republican nomination would
you NOT vote for under any circumstance?
Source: 2012 Exit Polls PAGE 16
N E A R LY H A L F W H O V O T ED I N 2 0 1 2 M A D E U P T H E I R M I N D S A B O U T W H O T O B A C K W I T HI N T H E L A S T F E W D AY S B E F OR E T H E V O T I NG B E G AN
2 0 1 6 – E L E C T I O N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N
PAGE 18
T H E D E M O CR ATIC PATH T O A P R E S I DENT IAL N O M I NATI ONDemocrats followed suit after the Republicans shortened their primary calendar.
Phase 1: February186 delegates at stake
4% of total awarded
Phase 2: Early March1,389 delegates at stake
29% of total awarded
Phase 3: Late March1,113 delegates at stake
23% of total awarded
Phase 4: April – June2,073 delegates at stake
44% of total awarded
186 1,389 1,113 2,073
Candidates need 2,383 delegates to win the nomination.*Keep in mind there are 713 superdelegates (public officials and party insiders who are free to back any candidate and aren’t selected in primaries or caucuses), of which Hillary
Clinton has already won commitments from more than 350.
Total = 4,761
Source: The Wall Street Journal
PAGE 19
H I L L A RY C L I NTON B A R ELY C O M E S O U T O N T O P I N T H E I O WA D E M O CRAT IC C A U C USLarge discrepancy in age and most important candidate quality between those who supported Clinton versus Sanders.
Source: The Washington Post
Candidate Number of Delegates
Hillary Clinton 49.9% 23Bernie Sanders 49.6% 21Martin O’Malley 0.6% 0
Clinton SandersAge17-29(18% of caucus goers) 14% 84%
30-44(19% of caucus goers) 37% 58%
45-64(36% of caucus goers) 58% 35%
65+(28% of caucus goers) 69% 26%
Most important candidate qualityCan win in November(20% of caucus goers) 77% 17%
Has right experience(28% of caucus goers) 88% 9%
Cares about people like(26% of caucus goers) 22% 74%
Honest and trustworthy(24% of caucus goers) 10% 83%
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C L I N TON L E A DS N AT IONA LLY, B U T S A N DER S H A S N A R R OWED H E R L E A D ; L I T T LE C H A N GE I N P R E D ICT ION M A R KET S A F T ER I O WA
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Feb, 2016
12%17% 18%
24% 25%30% 31% 34% 37%
60% 58%54%
47% 45%
55% 56% 55%50%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 Democratic Primary PreferenceAmong registered/leaned Democrats
Sanders Clinton
Source: PredictWise
83%
16%
83%
17%
Clinton Sanders
Chances of becoming the Democratic presidential nominee
Before Iowa Caucus After Iowa Caucus
PAGE 21
N E W H A M P SH IRE – W H AT’ S AT S TA K E?
Source: The New York Times
New Hampshire Primary Information
When? Tuesday,February 9th
Number of Delegates 32
Voter Eligibility Modified Primary
Delegate Selection Proportional
Key Component 400,000 undeclared voters
39.1%, 9 delegates36.5%, 9 delegates
2008 results by County
In 2008, Hillary Clinton won the Democratic
primary in New Hampshire with 39% of
the votes.
PAGE 22
S A N D ER S P O L L ING FA R A H E A D O F C L I N TON I N N E W H A M P SH IRE
Candidate Average
Bernie Sanders 54.8%Hillary Clinton 40.7%
HuffPost Pollster Trendas of February 9th, 2016
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Feb, 2016
26%30%
37%
41% 42% 43%47%
51% 55%45% 44%
40%
38% 37% 40%44% 41% 41%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 Democratic Primary PreferenceAmong Democratic and Democratic leaning voters in New Hampshire
Sanders Clinton
PAGE 23
N E W H A M P SH IRE P R E DIC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
98%
2%
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
PredictWise Chance of Winning New Hampshire Primary
As of February 9th
> 99%
< 1%
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
FiveThirtyEight.com Chance of Winning New Hampshire Primary
As of February 9th
Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls, national polls, and endorsementsPredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster
P R I M A R Y S E A S O N
PAGE 25
T H E O P E N I NG R O U N D – F E B R UA RY 1 S T – 2 7 TH
REPUBLICANSTHE OPENING ROUNDIA > NH > SC > NV
133 DELEGATES
DEMOCRATSTHE OPENING ROUNDIA > NH > NV > SC
186 DELEGATES
Source: Huffington Post, PAGE 26
T H E I M P O RTA NCE O F T H E T R I N I TY
Year Iowa New Hampshire
South Carolina Nominee President
1980 Bush Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan
1988 Dole Bush Bush Bush Bush
1996 Dole Buchanan Dole Dole Clinton
2000 Bush McCain Bush Bush Bush
2008 Huckabee McCain McCain McCain Obama
2012 Santorum Romney Gingrich Romney Obama
Open GOP nominations since ’80: 6GOP won 3 of those 6 elections
Candidates who ‘ran table’ early: 0
Open Democratic nominations since ’80: 6Democrat won 2 of those 6 electionsCandidates who ‘ran table’ early: 1
Year Iowa New Hampshire
South Carolina Nominee President
1984 Mondale Hart Jackson Mondale Reagan
1988 Gephardt Dukakis Jackson Dukakis Bush
1992 Harkin Tsongas Clinton Clinton Clinton
2000 Gore Gore Gore Gore Bush
2004 Kerry Kerry Edwards Kerry Bush
2008 Obama Clinton Obama Obama Obama
Source: NY Times PAGE 27
PAGE 28
S O U T H C A R O LIN A A N D N E VA DA – W H AT ’S AT S TA K ESouth Carolina is an extremely important primary for Republicans, as it has correctly determined the Republican nominee since 1980, with the exception of 2012.
Source: Election Central
South Carolina Primaries Nevada Caucuses
Republicans Democrats Republicans Democrats
When? Saturday,February 20th Saturday, February 27th Tuesday, February 23rd Saturday, February 20th
Number of Delegates 50 59 30 43
Voter Eligibility Open Primary Open Primary Closed Caucus Closed Caucus
Delegate Selection Winner-take-all Proportional Proportional Proportional
Key ComponentEvangelicals; low-propensity voter
mobilizationAfrican-American voters Turn out in rural areas Latino voters; turn out in
rural areas
PAGE 29
S U P E R T U E S DAY ( 3 / 1 ) , A K A “ S E C ” P R I M ARY D AY
Super Tuesday: March 1st
NH à AK, CO, MA, MN, ND, VTSC à AK, AL, AR, GA, OK, TN,
TX, VA, WY
Only RepublicanBoth Parties
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