Amarach Economic Recovery Index June 2012

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

June 2012

© Amárach Research


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out three years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

Our tracking research has shown the

remarkable emotional strength of the Irish

people, who have consistently reported

‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most

frequently experienced emotions.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

June 2012.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 18th to 24th June 2012 inclusive.


A Matter of Measurement

May’12: 48% June’12: 50%

May’12: 26% June’12: 29%

May’12: 24% June’12: 20%

May’12: 2% June’12: 1%

May’12: 0% June’12: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The economic outlook has fallen back steadily since March:


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The ERI fell back to 18.2 in June, down from a recent high of 22.3 in March 2012:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, June 2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr'09

Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'10

MayJune July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'11

MayJune July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12

Feb Mar Apr'12

MayJune


Recovery Outlook 1

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:


34%41%44% 42%43%

46%48%

41%43%

52%

41% 42%43% 42%42%

42%39%

31%26%18%

23%26%24%25%24%28%

23%26%24%26%26%23%22%21%26%

30%31%25%25%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57% 59%65%

58% 60%62%

55%

51%

51%

61%

55%54%52% 53%

54%55%

50% 46%44%

33%41%

48%44%

48%47%53%

47%48%48%47%49%42%39%

45%44%50%51%

47%43%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly


Fainter Hearted

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation”


June 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 187 156 266 478 524

Strongly Agree 12% 11% 12% 11% 13% 8% 9% 14% 15% 9%

Slightly Agree 31% 30% 32% 37% 28% 25% 30% 35% 35% 28%

Neither/Nor 17% 20% 14% 19% 17% 18% 14% 16% 19% 15%

Slightly Disagree 22% 20% 24% 19% 25% 29% 18% 18% 19% 25%

Strongly Disagree 18% 19% 17% 12% 14% 19% 28% 16% 13% 22%


Recovery Outlook 2



48% 48%51% 47%48%48%46%

45%45%50%

47% 43%47%45%

45%

47%

46%41%41%

32%34%39%37%36%39%40%

34%39%

34%38%38%34%33%37%41%40%42%38%36%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly

59%

62% 61%60%61%60%56%

52%

56%55%53% 55%

53%51%50%

55%

54%

53%

52% 45%45%49%45%47%48%50%44%

49%46%49%45%45%43%46%49%48%50%45%45%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly


Feeling Uncomfortable


“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 187 156 266 478 524

Strongly Agree 9% 8% 9% 9% 8% 5% 9% 11% 12% 6%

Slightly Agree 27% 26% 28% 32% 22% 24% 25% 31% 34% 21%

Neither/Nor 13% 16% 9% 12% 15% 14% 7% 13% 13% 12%




Recovery Outlook 3



43% 43%42%46%

35%40%39%

30%35% 36%

33%28%27%

14%

18%

25%

20%

21% 17%25%

20% 16%11%

16% 15% 13% 12% 12% 16%23% 24%

14%12%

Oc

t '0

9

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly

22%

22% 21% 22% 21% 18%23%

20%

20% 21%21%18%

20%13%

15%

18%

17%

17%

17%

21% 17% 19% 16% 15% 15% 18% 15% 15% 19% 22% 25%19%17%

Oc

t '0

9

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly


% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: June 2010, 2011, 2012 & May 2012

22%14% 18% 15%

June'10 June'11 May'12 June'12

I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago

68%60% 60% 63%


Now is a good time to buy a house for those

who want to

24% 25% 27% 25%


I am saving a lot more than before because of

the recession

30%23% 27% 23%


I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to

61% 59% 56% 55%


Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:

•Spending

•Saving

•Debt

•Borrowing

Financial Sentiment Indicators



De-Leveraging


“Paying off my debts is my main priority”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 187 156 266 478 524

Strongly Agree 35% 36% 34% 16% 38% 40% 44% 36% 33% 37%

Slightly Agree 20% 21% 20% 25% 18% 18% 22% 20% 20% 20%

Neither/Nor 14% 17% 12% 17% 16% 14% 12% 13% 16% 13%




The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to June 2012


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'10

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'11

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr'12

May

Jun

e

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to June 2012


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

0

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

1

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r'1

2

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1002 495 507 169 223 187 156 266 478 524

Enjoyment 54% 54% 54% 57% 49% 44% 49% 67% 62% 47%

Happiness 52% 52% 52% 61% 52% 43% 47% 56% 54% 50%

Stress 42% 41% 43% 47% 54% 47% 41% 27% 40% 44%

Worry 39% 38% 40% 43% 45% 41% 43% 27% 35% 42%

Anxiety 31% 30% 31% 36% 31% 31% 32% 26% 30% 31%

Boredom 28% 28% 28% 51% 34% 21% 26% 15% 28% 28%

Physical Pain 24% 22% 26% 26% 22% 20% 22% 29% 22% 26%

Sadness 20% 17% 23% 22% 26% 17% 15% 19% 16% 24%

Anger 16% 19% 14% 21% 22% 18% 15% 7% 14% 18%

Fear 9% 9% 10% 8% 15% 10% 9% 6% 7% 11%


% saying Yes: June 2012


News From Abroad

There has been a measurable decline in the

economic outlook among Irish consumers –

especially in relation to optimism about the end

of the recession.

Their emotional resilience remains strong, but

the economic impact of this shift in sentiment

cannot be ignored.

Marketers need to focus on those segments

insulated from the worst of the economic

turbulence (the tables in this report should help)

especially in relation to customer loyalty and

profitable pricing.

Take nothing for granted – and make sure your

brand positioning fits with the dominant (still

positive) emotions of the Irish people.


Let’s Get Visual

If you find Amárach’s Economic

Recovery Index useful (and we

know many of you do) then you

might be interested in our data

visualisation initiative with

Delphi Analytics.

We have partnered to create

an extraordinarily powerful

resource online – for free – to

enable marketers and others to

look at the historical trend in

the ERI going back to April

2009 by demographic group,

main bank etc.

Find out more here: http://delphianalytics.ie/visual-

analytics/economic-recovery-index/

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach Research

We are an independent market research

agency, providing a full range of research

services to our Irish and international

clients. We specialise in turning information

into insight; and insight into foresight.

Our experienced team of directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and

cati surveys; as well as qualitative research

including focus groups, in-depths and

ethnographic studies. We also offer a

unique field-only service to universities and

international agencies.

Amárach Research is proud to be:

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

Business

Amarach Economic Recovery Index June 2012