Amárach Economic Recovery Index June 2014

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

June 2014

© Amárach Research


Mid-Summer Momentum

What is the opposite of Seasonal Affective

Disorder (SAD)? Whatever it is, we got it in

June as the share of adults experiencing a

lot of enjoyment in our survey popped

through the 60% barrier for the first time

since… June last year.

This month’s edition of the Economic

Recovery Index points to a reassuring

positivity in consumer sentiment – some

might even say ‘stability’ – that bodes well

for the remainder of the year.

For the first time since we began the ERI,

25% of consumers say they are more

relaxed about spending money – though of

course the remainder are still holding on

tight to their purses and wallets.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over five years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

June 2014.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 16th-23rd June 2014 inclusive.

The full data series is on our website – details

at the end of this report.

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index has remained fairly constant through May and June 2014:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, June 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'14

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

the ERI remains well above historic average levels at the mid-year point


A Matter of Measurement

May ’14: 24% June ’14: 24%

May ’14: 32% June ’14: 33%

May ’14: 36% June ’14: 35%

May ’14: 8% June ’14: 8%

May ’14: 0% June ’14: 1%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ remains low, but isn’t falling either:


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Jun-09 52 27 19 2 0 17.8

Jun-10 33 36 27 3 1 25.3

Jun-11 46 28 23 2 1 20.4

Jun-12 50 29 20 1 0 18.2

Jun-13 37 32 27 4 0 24.5

May-14 24 32 36 8 0 32.4

Jun-14 24 33 35 8 1 32.5

the positive outlook evident from late 2013 has continued into 2014 without abating


Uneven Recovery

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

(by sex, age, class, Dublin)


June 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

The economic situation

in Ireland is getting

worse

23% 25% 21% 17% 21% 24% 24% 27% 19% 17% 29%


is bad but has stabilized 32% 33% 31% 36% 36% 34% 32% 25% 34% 34% 30%


is bad but showing a

few signs of

improvement

34% 31% 37% 35% 31% 33% 30% 38% 31% 36% 32%


is getting better and

showing clear signs of

improvement

8% 9% 8% 9% 9% 5% 10% 8% 11% 11% 6%


is good and almost fully

recovered from the

recession

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% *

ERI Score 32.5 31.6 33.4 34.3 32.9 30.3 32.1 32.9 35.7 36.5 28.8

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Jun-09 44 51 65 61

Jun-10 42 45 54 50

Jun-11 23 34 47 44

Jun-12 25 36 43 45

Jun-13 33 40 48 46

May-14 38 39 49 45

Jun-14 37 42 50 45

people are feeling a little more optimistic and comfortable – but only a little


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II


%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Jun-09 16

Jun-10 22 24 61 30

Jun-11 14 25 59 23

Jun-12 15 25 55 23

Jun-13 21 28 54 23

May-14 23 23 59 25

Jun-14 25 26 54 26

for the first time since we began, 25% are more relaxed about spending


Loosening the Purse Strings?

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 8% 10% 8% 15% 9% 8% 7% 6% 8% 9% 8%

Slightly Agree 17% 18% 15% 17% 18% 16% 15% 16% 20% 21% 13%

Neither/Nor 18% 20% 17% 16% 23% 14% 14% 21% 20% 19% 18%

Slightly Disagree 25% 24% 26% 23% 22% 31% 24% 25% 24% 26% 24%

Strongly Disagree 30% 28% 33% 25% 27% 31% 39% 31% 28% 24% 36%


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III


%

I always buy

the lowest

price products

or services

I am always on

the lookout for

opportunities to

switch to

cheaper

suppliers

I have more

choice than

before when it

comes to

products and

services

I always buy

Irish when I

can

May-13 58 69 54 54

Jun-13 55 70 55 51

Jul-13 56 70 52 53

Aug-13 57 70 53 53

Sep-13 59 72 53 54

Oct-13 58 69 52 51

Nov-13 56 69 55 51

Dec-13 54 68 54 53

Jan-14 59 74 56 54

Feb-14 56 70 57 52

Mar-14 57 68 56 48

Apr-14 56 69 54 50

May-14 60 72 55 51

Jun-14 55 70 58 52


Still Sensitive

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“I always buy the lowest price products or services”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 26% 22% 30% 29% 29% 28% 27% 18% 27% 24% 27%

Slightly Agree 29% 28% 31% 35% 28% 25% 30% 28% 28% 31% 27%

Neither/Nor 17% 18% 15% 14% 15% 20% 11% 20% 15% 17% 16%

Slightly Disagree 20% 23% 17% 13% 21% 21% 20% 24% 24% 21% 19%

Strongly Disagree 5% 6% 4% 3% 3% 4% 6% 7% 4% 3% 6%

Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to June 2014


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Jun

Jul

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'10

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'11

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'13

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'14

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

e

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to June 2014


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Jun

Jul

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'10

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'11

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'13

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'14

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

e

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Enjoyment 61% 62% 61% 61% 61% 57% 62% 64% 62% 64% 59%

Happiness 54% 54% 54% 54% 54% 52% 51% 58% 53% 57% 52%

Stress 40% 37% 43% 44% 48% 46% 41% 25% 43% 41% 39%

Worry 35% 31% 38% 41% 42% 40% 34% 22% 35% 33% 36%

Anxiety 30% 28% 32% 36% 32% 32% 30% 22% 28% 27% 32%

Boredom 27% 30% 25% 50% 30% 24% 25% 14% 25% 24% 30%

Physical Pain 22% 21% 24% 20% 21% 22% 23% 25% 23% 20% 24%

Sadness 19% 16% 21% 26% 18% 16% 17% 17% 19% 17% 20%

Anger 14% 15% 12% 16% 17% 19% 9% 9% 17% 13% 14%

Fear 9% 9% 9% 15% 8% 11% 5% 7% 11% 8% 10%


% saying Yes: June 2014

Amárach Outlook


Dive In

Gradually, gradually comes the recovery – but

did we mention it would be gradual?

Moods are catching, so if the current emotional

and intentional momentum continues we can

expect to see a gradual increase in the share

of consumers more prepared to dive into the

recovery as it becomes more manifest.

We hope this edition of the Economic

Recovery Index has given you some food for

thought about the opportunities that lie ahead

– we’d be happy to share other ideas with you

on how to leverage the new momentum.

For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

we ask better questions

so you get better answers

Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

Trends Report

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t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index June 2014