Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
It is two years since we started taking the emotional temperature of Ireland's recession. This month we report on progress towards an emotional recovery alongside economic recovery.
Citation preview
The Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing
October Index Results
© Amárach Research 2009
April 2011 Results
The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
2
The Emotional Recovery
• We have been reporting our monthly
Recovery Indicator since April 2009.
• We set out two years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery
alongside our ‘economic progress’.
• Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
• But we are still in recession – and the path to
recovery still lies some way ahead.
• The next two years should nevertheless see us
make real progress along the path.
3
Timing Recovery
• All recessions end in recovery –
so will this one.
• The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:
when do we know the recession is over and
recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely.
• This report summarises the AIB-Amárach
Recovery Indicator results from April 2009
(when it began) to April 2011.
• The fieldwork was conducted during the period
11th-17th April 2011 inclusive.
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs
4
A Matter of Measurement• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
5
A Matter of Measurement
Mar‘11 48% Apr‘11 51%
Mar’11 30% Apr’11 27%
Mar’11 20% Apr’11 19%
Mar’11 2% Apr’11 2%
Mar’11 0% Apr’11 1%
• There was little change in sentiment in April 2011 on the previous month:
6
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100
(0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• In April 2011, the Indicator remained stable, well above November’s low point.
8.3
17.8
1517
18.419.6
17.818.3
27.1
22.723.523.8 23.8
25.326
24
19.2
16.3
7.3
12
17.31819.218.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr '09
Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '10
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '11
AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator
7
34%41%44% 42%43%46%48%
41%43%52%
41% 42%43% 42%42%
42%39%
31%26%18%23%26%24%25%24%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly
57% 59%65%
58% 60% 62% 55%
51%51%
61%
55%54%52% 53%
54%55%
50% 46% 44% 33%41%
48%44%48%47%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly
Recovery Outlook 1
8
48% 48%51% 47%48%48%46%45%45%50%
47% 43%47% 45%45%
47%46%
41%41%32%34%39%37%36%39%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly
Recovery Outlook 2
59%
62% 61%60%61%60% 56%
52%
56%55%53% 55%
53%51% 50%
55%
54%
53%
52% 45%45%49%45%47%48%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r'10
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
9
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: April 2009, 2010, 2011 & March 2011
16% 21%13% 14%
April '09
April '10
Mar '11
April '11
I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago
53%64% 61% 60%
Apr '09
Apr '10
Mar '11
Apr '11
Now is a good time to buy a house for those who
want to
36%28% 23% 27%
Apr '09
Apr '10
Mar '11
Apr '11
I am saving a lot more than before because of
the recession
31% 23% 24%
Apr '10
Mar '11
Apr '11
I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I
need to 59% 58% 58%
Apr '10
Mar '11
Apr '11
Paying off debts is my main financial priority
Impact on:
•Spending
•Saving
•Debt
•Borrowing
Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
NB: debt & borrowing questions not asked in 2009
10
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to April 2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr
'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'10
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'11
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
11
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to April 2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Ap
r '0
9
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
0
Ma
y
June
July
Aug
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
1
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
12
Taking Stock
• Irish consumers are now planning for the long
haul – emotionally and economically.
• Their financial focus is on debt reduction, as well
as on precautionary savings to see them
through to recovery.
• Nevertheless, consistently between a third and
half of all adults feel some degree of ‘insulation’
from the full consequences of the recession.
• Couple that with continuing emotional
robustness and it could reasonably be argued
that recovery in consumer markets may bounce
back more strongly than expected one people
feel the worst is behind them.
• But we’re not there yet...
13
Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill - Chairman
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
T. (01) 410 5200
W. www.amarach.com
B. www.amarach.com/blog
