Amárach Economic Recovery Index December 2013

1Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research BriefingDecember 2013(including analysis by main bank; supermarket; mobile network)

© Amárach Research


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Ireland’s exit from the bailout has boosted consumer confidence about our economic performance and prospects: for the third month in a row our Economic Recovery Index has reached a record high level – up to 31.2.

The improvements in consumer intentions for spending and borrowing noted in November have been sustained into December.

As 2013 and the bailout come to an end, our tracking research (and focus groups) confirm a growing anticipation of recovery and a better alignment between people’s views on the economy and their own personal financial plans.

Of course, sentiment is just that – an emotional reaction to changing circumstances and information: 2014 will show us whether the hoped for recovery can finally become reality.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out nearly five years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to December 2013.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 5th-10th December 2013 inclusive.

The full data series is on our website – if you want us to conduct additional analyses (by brands etc) then feel free to get in touch.


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index continues to improve: reaching 31.2 in December 2013, the third record breaking performance in row:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, December 2013

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A Matter of Measurement

Nov ’13: 26% Dec ’13: 24%

Nov ’13: 36% Dec ’13: 36%

Nov ’13: 32% Dec ’13: 31%

Nov ’13: 5% Dec ’13: 8%

Nov ’13: 0% Dec ’13: 1%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is less than a third the level three years ago:


ERI Summary Tables I

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?% choosing each statement:

%

The economic situation in Ireland is

getting worse

The economic situation is bad

but has stabilized

The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement

The economic situation is

getting better and showing clear signs of improvement

The economic situation is good and

almost fully recovered

Economic Recovery

Index

Dec-09 49 31 18 2 0 18.3Dec-10 65 20 14 1 0 12.0Dec-11 59 24 15 2 0 15.1Dec-12 49 28 20 3 0 19.5Nov-13 26 36 32 5 0 29.6Dec-13 24 36 31 8 1 31.2


ERI Summary Tables II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months

time

I feel I am financially

comfortable enough to

make it through the recession

I am optimistic in spite of the

current economic situation

Right now it seems like the

recession is affecting other people more

than it is affecting me

Dec-09 43 45 51 56Dec-10 23 34 41 45Dec-11 22 33 39 43Dec-12 26 32 39 43Nov-13 36 42 49 44Dec-13 37 40 49 43


ERI Summary Tables III

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more relaxed about

spending money than I

was a few months ago

I am saving a lot more than

before because of the

recession

My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly

as possible

I would be happy to

borrow money from a bank if I

need to

Dec-09 17 26 57 29Dec-10 11 23 58 21Dec-11 14 27 56 22Dec-12 15 22 54 22Nov-13 22 24 54 26Dec-13 22 26 55 26


Brighter Outlook I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in twelve months’ time”


December 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1F50+

C2DEF50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 8% 8% 9% 10% 9% 8% 6% 8% 7% 11% 6%

Slightly Agree 29% 27% 31% 33% 30% 32% 23% 27% 30% 32% 26%

Neither/Nor 13% 14% 13% 14% 14% 16% 8% 14% 14% 12% 14%

Slightly Disagree 22% 22% 21% 21% 20% 20% 30% 20% 26% 23% 21%

Strongly Disagree 23% 26% 20% 16% 19% 18% 31% 29% 18% 18% 27%


Brighter Outlook II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by bank/supermarket/mobile network): “Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in twelve months’ time”


December 2013 TOTAL AIB BOI PTSB Tesco Dunnes Super-valu Aldi O2 Voda -

fone Meteor

Weighted Sample 1000 333 296 155 342 183 80 222 213 354 181

Strongly Agree 8% 6% 10% 9% 9% 8% 11% 7% 7% 9% 7%

Slightly Agree 29% 31% 34% 22% 30% 33% 25% 28% 30% 26% 32%

Neither/Nor 13% 15% 12% 11% 16% 14% 9% 11% 14% 16% 11%




Buy Irish I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I always buy Irish when I can”



C2DEF50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 23% 23% 23% 18% 21% 21% 23% 30% 23% 23% 24%

Slightly Agree 30% 28% 31% 29% 30% 29% 29% 32% 28% 33% 27%

Neither/Nor 24% 24% 24% 26% 24% 27% 27% 17% 28% 26% 22%




Buy Irish II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by bank/supermarket/mobile network): “I always buy Irish when I can”



fone Meteor

Weighted Sample 1000 333 296 155 342 183 80 222 213 354 181

Strongly Agree 23% 25% 23% 22% 27% 27% 25% 23% 25% 23% 23%

Slightly Agree 28% 34% 34% 26% 28% 39% 32% 33% 31% 29% 28%

Neither/Nor 24% 22% 26% 26% 24% 15% 22% 25% 21% 21% 24%




The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2013


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10%

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70%

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2013


Apr

May Jun

Jul

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Sep

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Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Emotions Summary Table

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes:

% Enjoyment Happ-iness Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

Dec-09 49 52 46 41 33 20 23 18

Dec-10 47 46 48 45 32 19 20 20

Dec-11 52 48 46 45 34 20 21 19

Dec-12 49 47 45 42 31 18 20 16

Nov-13 53 49 45 40 34 22 25 18

Dec-13 51 51 46 43 35 20 23 17


Changing Moods I



C2DEF50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Enjoyment 51% 55% 48% 51% 48% 47% 52% 58% 52% 57% 46%

Happiness 51% 49% 53% 54% 51% 56% 45% 51% 52% 54% 48%

Stress 46% 38% 54% 55% 55% 57% 48% 25% 49% 48% 45%

Worry 43% 39% 47% 46% 44% 47% 47% 35% 42% 40% 46%

Anxiety 35% 31% 38% 45% 32% 38% 36% 27% 35% 36% 33%

Boredom 25% 27% 23% 48% 27% 22% 14% 17% 24% 21% 29%

Physical Pain 23% 20% 27% 20% 17% 25% 24% 30% 25% 23% 24%

Sadness 20% 18% 22% 27% 24% 21% 16% 16% 18% 22% 19%

Anger 17% 17% 17% 26% 20% 15% 14% 12% 19% 16% 18%

Fear 13% 11% 14% 21% 13% 13% 12% 7% 14% 13% 13%

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: December 2013


Changing Moods II



fone Meteor

Weighted Sample 1000 333 296 155 342 183 80 222 213 354 181

Enjoyment 51% 49% 53% 52% 52% 54% 54% 43% 54% 51% 53%

Happiness 51% 51% 58% 46% 48% 53% 54% 56% 52% 50% 56%

Stress 46% 49% 44% 45% 47% 43% 40% 52% 43% 45% 53%

Worry 43% 44% 39% 44% 41% 40% 38% 52% 39% 46% 37%

Anxiety 35% 36% 37% 31% 36% 31% 28% 41% 30% 38% 28%

Boredom 25% 25% 24% 26% 25% 28% 23% 27% 21% 23% 23%

Physical Pain 23% 22% 23% 25% 23% 19% 33% 25% 24% 19% 26%

Sadness 20% 19% 20% 23% 23% 18% 15% 23% 17% 21% 17%

Anger 17% 16% 18% 17% 17% 20% 17% 16% 16% 17% 15%

Fear 13% 13% 12% 16% 14% 12% 6% 14% 9% 13% 12%

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: December 2013 (by main bank/supermarket/mobile network)

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index December 2013