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The latest findings from our monthly tracker of Irish consumer expectations about economic recovery.
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The Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing
October Index Results
© Amárach Research 2009
August 2010 Results
The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
2
Timing Recovery
• All recessions end in recovery – so will this one
• The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:
when do we know the recession is over and
recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely
• This report summarises the Recovery
Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began)
to August 2010
• The fieldwork was conducted on 11th to 20th
August 2010
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs
3
A Matter of Measurement• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
4
A Matter of Measurement
April’09 77% August‘10 36%
April’09 14% August’10 36%
April’09 8% August’10 24%
April’09 1% August’10 4%
April’09 0% August’10 *
• The general sense in August ‘10 is marginally less positive than July. Although the trend
versus April 2009 is one of improvement, August sees a more concerned response than
that of July.
5
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges
from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• Summer positivity of June and July declines at the start of Autumn.
8.3
16.317.8
1517
18.419.6
17.8 18.3
27.1
22.723.523.8
23.8
25.3 26
24
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr '09
May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10
Feb Mar Apr '10
May June July Aug
AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator
6
34%41%44% 42% 43% 46% 48% 41% 43%
52%
41% 42% 43% 42% 42%42%
39%
Apr '09
May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10
Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly
57% 59%65%
58% 60% 62% 55% 51% 51%61%
55% 54% 52% 53%
54% 55%
50%
Apr '09
May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10
Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly
Recovery Outlook 1
7
48% 48%51% 47% 48% 48% 46%45% 45% 50%
47% 43% 47% 45% 45%47%
46%
Apr '09
May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10
Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly
59% 62% 61%60% 61% 60%56%
52%
56% 55%53% 55%
53% 51% 50%55%
54%
Apr '09
May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10
Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
Recovery Outlook 2
8
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: October 2009 and October 2010 (unless otherwise stated)
16% 19%
Aug '09 Aug '10
I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago
62% 62%
Oct '09 Aug'10
Now is a good time to buy a house* for those
who want to
33%26%
Aug '09 Aug'10
I am saving a lot more than before because of
the recession
33% 31%
Oct '09 Aug'10
I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I
need to 61% 62%
Oct'09 Aug'10
Paying off debts is my main financial priority
Impact on:
•Spending
•Saving
•Debt
•Borrowing
* ‘a new house’ in 2009
##
#
# Question first asked in October 2009
Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
9
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to August 2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr '09
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10
Feb Mar Apr '10
May June July Aug
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
10
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to August 2010
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Apr '09
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10
Feb Mar Apr '10
May June July Aug
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
11
Your Household Income is...
More than sufficient to
meet household expenses
at the moment
Just about sufficient to
meet household expenses
at the moment
Simply not sufficient to
meet household expenses
at the moment
12
Goods or Services Would Start Spending More Money on Firstassuming recovery in the economy in the next twelve months and greater job
security
13
Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill - Chairman
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
T. (01) 410 5200
W. www.amarach.com
B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com
AIB Contact Details
Ronan Sheridan
Group Press Officer
AIB
Bankcentre
Ballsbridge
Dublin 4
T. (01) 641 4651
M. 086 388 0898
