Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2013

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing October 2013 (including analysis by main bank; supermarket; electricity provider)

© Amárach Research


Green Leaves

October was a turning point in the mood of the nation –

our Economic Recovery Index rose to its highest level

since we began tracking in April 2009.

So ‘green shoots’ for the recovery at last? Not quite yet –

it’s more a case of ‘green leaves’, i.e.: recovery appears to

be happening ‘above’ in terms of the wider economy, but

here ‘on the ground’ it’s less clear cut.

Still, our survey took place in the weeks after Budget 2013,

and there certainly appear to be no negative

consequences for consumer optimism generally about the

near term outlook for Ireland’s economy.

That said, some of the negative emotions we have been

tracking every month (e.g.: stress/worry) have been

trending up, in turn affecting consumer behaviour.

So this month’s report shows that consumers remain

cautious – and price conscious – and marketers still have

their work cut out turning macro-optimism into real

spending growth at the micro-level.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out four years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

October 2013.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 21st to 30th October 2013 inclusive.

The full data series is on our website – if you

want us to conduct additional analyses (by

brands etc) then feel free to get in touch.


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index rose to 27.4 in October 2013, its highest level ever since we began tracking the

mood of the nation in April 2009:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, October 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct


A Matter of Measurement

Sept ’13: 35% Oct ’13: 32%

Sept ’13: 31% Oct ’13: 32%

Sept ’13: 30% Oct ’13: 32%

Sept ’13: 4% Oct ’13: 4%

Sept ’13: 0% Oct ’13: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The percentage thinking things are getting worse is back to the levels seen three years ago:


ERI Summary Tables I

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Oct-09 47 30 22 1 0 19.6

Oct-10 56 23 18 2 1 16.3

Oct-11 42 31 25 2 0 22.0

Oct-12 48 28 21 3 0 19.8

Sep-13 35 31 30 4 0 25.7

Oct-13 32 32 32 4 0 27.4


ERI Summary Tables II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Oct-09 48 46 55 56

Oct-10 26 41 44 52

Oct-11 26 38 49 45

Oct-12 26 38 48 44

Sep-13 28 38 45 46

Oct-13 30 36 44 43


ERI Summary Tables III

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Oct-09 16 32 61 33

Oct-10 15 25 59 27

Oct-11 14 22 54 23

Oct-12 16 25 56 25

Sep-13 19 26 57 25

Oct-13 18 24 57 24


Spendthrift I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”


October 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 187 157 265 279 478 524

Strongly Agree 4% 5% 3% 4% 4% 4% 2% 4% 3% 5% 3%

Slightly Agree 15% 17% 13% 17% 19% 13% 13% 12% 17% 17% 13%

Neither/Nor 17% 21% 14% 16% 21% 16% 14% 18% 21% 19% 16%

Slightly Disagree 25% 22% 28% 26% 23% 26% 27% 24% 24% 26% 24%

Strongly Disagree 38% 34% 42% 34% 33% 40% 43% 40% 35% 32% 43%


Spendthrift II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by bank/supermarket/electricity):

“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”


October 2013 TOTAL AIB BoI PTSB Tesco Dunnes Super

Valu Aldi

Electric

Ireland

Bord

Gais Airtricity

Weighted Sample 1002 354 275 182 338 152 87 212 511 161 259

Strongly Agree 4% 3% 3% 6% 5% 3% 1% 3% 4% 4% 2%

Slightly Agree 15% 15% 16% 11% 14% 14% 17% 16% 15% 15% 16%

Neither/Nor 17% 19% 17% 14% 17% 21% 21% 12% 18% 18% 16%




Price Wars I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I always buy the lowest price products or services”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 187 157 265 279 478 524

Strongly Agree 28% 26% 30% 33% 26% 33% 31% 22% 23% 25% 31%

Slightly Agree 30% 30% 29% 31% 28% 30% 30% 29% 29% 30% 29%

Neither/Nor 19% 21% 16% 16% 20% 18% 16% 20% 23% 20% 17%




Price Wars II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by bank/supermarket/electricity):

“I always buy the lowest price products or services”



Valu Aldi

Electric

Ireland

Bord

Gais Airtricity

Weighted Sample 1002 354 275 182 338 152 87 212 511 161 259

Strongly Agree 28% 28% 25% 29% 27% 21% 16% 37% 28% 27% 28%

Slightly Agree 30% 27% 30% 31% 29% 33% 30% 31% 29% 34% 28%

Neither/Nor 19% 24% 16% 16% 18% 19% 27% 17% 20% 14% 18%




The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2013


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

Ma

yJun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan'1

0F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJune

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan'1

1F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJune

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan'1

2F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJune

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan'1

3F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJune

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2013


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Jun

Jul

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'10

Fe

bM

ar

Apr

Ma

yJun

eJuly

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

Nov

De

cJan

'11

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'12

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'13

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Emotions Summary Table


% saying Yes:

% Enjoyment Happ-

iness Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

Oct-09 61 54 41 34 24 17 19 13

Oct-10 51 49 49 42 32 18 23 19

Oct-11 51 50 46 39 32 20 23 15

Oct-12 53 51 40 40 28 19 20 13

Sep-13 56 51 44 40 35 20 23 16

Oct-13 54 50 47 43 32 23 26 16


Changing Moods I



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 187 157 265 279 478 524

Enjoyment 54% 57% 52% 52% 47% 52% 57% 62% 55% 60% 49%

Happiness 50% 48% 52% 57% 50% 49% 45% 49% 51% 53% 47%

Stress 47% 45% 48% 57% 51% 53% 45% 34% 45% 48% 46%

Worry 43% 40% 45% 45% 42% 47% 43% 38% 38% 41% 44%

Anxiety 32% 29% 35% 36% 34% 32% 32% 28% 28% 33% 31%

Boredom 28% 32% 25% 48% 39% 21% 22% 15% 26% 27% 30%

Physical Pain 26% 21% 31% 25% 21% 21% 26% 34% 26% 23% 29%

Sadness 23% 20% 26% 31% 26% 17% 22% 20% 22% 23% 23%

Anger 16% 17% 16% 19% 21% 16% 18% 11% 18% 16% 17%

Fear 12% 12% 12% 12% 15% 14% 9% 10% 10% 10% 14%


% saying Yes: October 2013


Changing Moods II



Valu Aldi

Electric

Ireland

Bord

Gais Airtricity

Weighted Sample 1002 354 275 182 338 152 87 212 511 161 259

Enjoyment 54% 53% 58% 58% 56% 56% 62% 50% 55% 57% 56%

Happiness 50% 52% 52% 47% 50% 57% 47% 50% 52% 50% 50%

Stress 47% 44% 49% 45% 45% 47% 50% 51% 49% 40% 45%

Worry 43% 41% 40% 48% 43% 42% 31% 50% 44% 41% 41%

Anxiety 32% 27% 34% 35% 33% 31% 34% 33% 33% 28% 31%

Boredom 28% 29% 27% 25% 30% 26% 17% 33% 31% 20% 24%

Physical Pain 26% 26% 24% 27% 22% 28% 31% 28% 23% 26% 29%

Sadness 23% 21% 24% 23% 21% 22% 23% 26% 24% 17% 23%

Anger 16% 13% 15% 20% 17% 13% 15% 19% 14% 19% 18%

Fear 12% 10% 10% 18% 11% 11% 10% 12% 12% 8% 11%


% saying Yes: October 2013 (by main bank/supermarket/electricity provider)

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About Amárach

Amárach Research is an independent market

research agency, providing a full range of

research services to our Irish and international

clients. Amárach specialises in turning

information into insight; and insight into foresight.

Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and cati

surveys (through our call centre); as well as

qualitative research including focus groups, in-

depths and ethnographic studies. We also

delivers a world class field-only service to

universities and international agencies.

Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered

innovative research techniques and reported on

Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the

1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding

current Irish consumer and business trends, and

shares numerous, free reports and presentations

via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our

main website: www.amarach.com

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your

business to bounce forward to success and to

explore how we can help you succeed through

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2013