Amarach Economic Recovery Index May 2012

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

May 2012

© Amárach Research


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out three years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

Our tracking research has shown the

remarkable emotional strength of the Irish

people, who have consistently reported

‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most

frequently experienced emotions.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

May 2012.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 19th to 23rd May 2012 inclusive.


A Matter of Measurement

Apr’12: 49% May’12: 48%

Apr’12: 27% May’12: 26%

Apr’12: 21% May’12: 24%

Apr’12: 3% May’12: 2%

Apr’12: 0% May’12: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The consumer outlook has remained relatively unchanged from April to May:


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The ERI has remained flat at 20.2 in May, down from a recent high of 22.3 in March 2012:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, May 2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr'09

Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'10

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'11

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12

Feb Mar Apr'12

May


The Stages of Recovery

May 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1004 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 479 525

The economic

situation in Ireland is

getting worse

47% 47% 46% 32% 42% 51% 55% 52% 42% 51%

The economic

situation is bad but

has stabilized

26% 26% 25% 31% 30% 28% 24% 18% 28% 23%

The economic

situation is bad but

showing a few signs of

improvement

23% 23% 23% 30% 22% 19% 16% 25% 26% 20%

The economic

situation is getting

better and showing

clear signs of

improvement

2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2%

The economic

situation is good and

almost fully recovered

from the recession

* * * 0 1% 1% 0 0 * *

Perceptions of the current stage of recovery by demographic group:



Recovery Outlook 1

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:


34%41%44% 42%43%

46%48%

41%43%

52%

41% 42%43% 42%42%

42%39%

31%26%18%

23%26%24%25%24%28%

23%26%24%26%26%23%22%21%26%

30%31%25%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57% 59%65%

58% 60%62%

55%

51%

51%

61%

55%54%52% 53%

54%55%

50% 46%44%

33%41%

48%44%

48%47%53%

47%48%48%47%49%42%39%

45%44%50%51%

47%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly


Recovery Outlook 2



48% 48%51% 47%48%48%46%

45%45%50%

47% 43%47%45%

45%

47%

46%41%41%

32%34%39%37%36%39%40%

34%39%

34%38%38%34%33%37%41%40%42%38%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly

59%

62% 61%60%61%60%56%

52%

56%55%53% 55%

53%51%50%

55%

54%

53%

52% 45%45%49%45%47%48%50%44%

49%46%49%45%45%43%46%49%48%50%45%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly


Recovery Outlook 3



43% 43%42%46%

35%40%39%

30%35% 36%

33%28%27%

14%18%

25%

20%

21% 17%25%

20% 16%11%

16% 15% 13% 12% 12% 16%23% 24%

14%

Oc

t '0

9

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly

22%

22% 21% 22% 21% 18%23%

20%

20% 21%21%18%

20%13%

15%

18%

17%

17%

17%

21% 17% 19% 16% 15% 15% 18% 15% 15% 19% 22% 25%19%

Oc

t '0

9

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly


% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: May 2011, 2012 & April 2012

17% 20% 18%

May'11 Apr'12 May'12

I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago

62% 66%60%


Now is a good time to buy a house for those

who want to

26% 30% 27%


I am saving a lot more than before because of

the recession

26% 28% 27%


I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to 61% 59% 56%


Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:

•Spending

•Saving

•Debt

•Borrowing

Financial Sentiment Indicators



Feeling Flaithulach

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1004 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 479 525

Strongly Agree 9% 10% 8% 8% 7% 5% 6% 14% 10% 8%

Slightly Agree 30% 31% 28% 31% 33% 25% 24% 33% 36% 24%

Neither/Nor 13% 15% 11% 16% 14% 12% 10% 11% 12% 13%

Slightly Disagree 20% 19% 22% 22% 21% 23% 20% 17% 20% 20%

Strongly Disagree 26% 25% 28% 20% 22% 32% 39% 23% 20% 32%


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2012


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'10

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'11

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr'12

May

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2012


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

0

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

1

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r'1

2

Ma

y

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1004 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 479 525

Enjoyment 56% 57% 55% 58% 53% 53% 58% 59% 61% 52%

Happiness 53% 50% 57% 63% 59% 50% 43% 50% 55% 51%

Stress 45% 38% 51% 56% 48% 46% 45% 33% 47% 42%

Worry 38% 33% 43% 41% 39% 40% 41% 32% 39% 37%

Anxiety 30% 29% 31% 33% 34% 26% 31% 26% 33% 27%

Boredom 25% 24% 26% 42% 31% 22% 17% 16% 25% 25%

Physical Pain 21% 22% 21% 18% 21% 17% 21% 26% 20% 22%

Sadness 19% 16% 23% 21% 27% 17% 18% 15% 18% 21%

Anger 17% 16% 18% 21% 25% 13% 15% 11% 16% 18%

Fear 10% 10% 10% 13% 11% 9% 9% 8% 10% 10%


% saying Yes: May 2012


News From Abroad

Developments in Europe once again haunt the

Irish consumer psyche – the percentage

agreeing that news from abroad makes them

expect recovery soon is right back down to all

time low levels.

But our measures of emotional resilience

appear at least to have stabilised: happiness

and enjoyment still dominate, and stress and

worry are no longer converging with the more

positive emotions.

For Irish marketers, the key task will be to

navigate the uncertainty caused by the

unfolding crisis in Europe, using Irish consumer

resilience to unlock their purses and wallets

rather than live in dread of more rainy days.

A sunny summer will help…


Let’s Get Visual

If you find Amárach’s Economic

Recovery Index useful (and we

know many of you do) then you

might be interested in our data

visualisation initiative with

Delphi Analytics.

We have partnered to create

an extraordinarily powerful

resource online – for free – to

enable marketers and others to

look at the historical trend in

the ERI going back to April

2009 by demographic group,

main bank etc.

Find out more here: http://delphianalytics.ie/visual-

analytics/economic-recovery-index/

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach Research

We are an independent market research

agency, providing a full range of research

services to our Irish and international

clients. We specialise in turning information

into insight; and insight into foresight.

Our experienced team of directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and

cati surveys; as well as qualitative research

including focus groups, in-depths and

ethnographic studies. We also offer a

unique field-only service to universities and

international agencies.

Amárach Research is proud to be:

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

Technology

Amarach Economic Recovery Index May 2012