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A monthly survey of 1,000 Irish people about the economy, their mood and the prospects for recovery.
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© Amárach Research 2009
November 2010 Results
The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
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Timing Recovery
• All recessions end in recovery – so will this one
• The biggest forecasting challenge is timing: when do we know the recession is over and recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the Recovery Indicator to help us track the economic cycle more closely
• This report summarises the Recovery Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began) to November 2010
• The fieldwork was conducted on 22nd to 30th November 2010
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A Matter of Measurement • Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
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A Matter of Measurement • November saw a further fall in confidence about the prospects for recovery, returning to
levels last seen in April 2009 when the series began.
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• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• Any build in positivity has been eroded with the scoring now going back to April 2009.
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Recovery Outlook 1
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Recovery Outlook 2
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Percent of adults who agree with each statement: October 2009 and November 2010
Impact on: • Spending • Saving • Debt • Borrowing
* ‘a new house’ in 2009
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# Question first asked in October 2009
Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
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The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to November 2010
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The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to November 2010
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Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill - Chairman Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
T. (01) 410 5200 E. [email protected]
W. www.amarach.com B. www.amarach.com/blog
