Amarach Economic Recovery Index August 2012

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

August 2012

© Amárach Research


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out three years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

Our tracking research has shown the

remarkable emotional strength of the Irish

people, who have consistently reported

‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most

frequently experienced emotions.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

August 2012.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 13th to 20th August 2012 inclusive.


A Matter of Measurement

July’12: 42% Aug’12: 42%

July’12: 31% Aug’12: 31%

July’12: 23% Aug’12: 25%

July’12: 3% Aug’12: 2%

July’12: 1% July’12: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The improving economic outlook seen in July has been broadly sustained into August:


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The ERI stood at 21.7 in August, similar to July and close to the high of 22.3 in March 2012:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, August 2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr'09

Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'10

MayJune July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'11

MayJune July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12

Feb Mar Apr'12

MayJune July Aug


Recovery Outlook 1

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:


34%41%44% 42%43%

46%48%

41%43%

52%

41% 42%43% 42%42%

42%39%

31%26%18%

23%26%24%25%24%28%

23%26%24%26%26%23%22%21%26%

30%31%25%25%27%27%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57% 59%65%

58% 60%62%

55%

51%

51%

61%

55%54%52% 53%

54%55%

50% 46%44%

33%41%

48%44%

48%47%53%

47%48%48%47%49%42%39%

45%44%50%51%

47%43%45%47%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly


Feeling Lucky

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am optimistic in spite of the economic situation”


August 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523

Strongly Agree 14% 15% 12% 14% 12% 16% 12% 14% 15% 12%

Slightly Agree 33% 32% 34% 37% 30% 25% 34% 39% 37% 30%

Neither/Nor 16% 17% 15% 20% 17% 16% 13% 14% 15% 16%

Slightly Disagree 19% 17% 22% 16% 17% 25% 25% 17% 20% 19%

Strongly Disagree 16% 18% 15% 9% 22% 16% 17% 16% 11% 21%


Recovery Outlook 2



48%48%51% 47%48%48%46%

45%45%50%

47% 43%47%45%

45%

47%

46%41%41%

32%34%39%37%36%39%40%

34%39%

34%38%38%34%33%37%41%40%42%38%36%38%39%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly

59%

62% 61%60%61%60%56%

52%

56%55%53% 55%

53%51%50%

55%

54%

53%

52% 45%45%49%45%47%48%50%44%

49%46%49%45%45%43%46%49%48%50%45%45%43%46%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly


Heads Down


“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523

Strongly Agree 9% 12% 7% 5% 8% 11% 6% 13% 12% 6%

Slightly Agree 30% 30% 29% 34% 28% 20% 28% 37% 36% 24%

Neither/Nor 13% 17% 10% 13% 16% 17% 11% 10% 12% 15%




Recovery Outlook 3



43% 43%42%46%

35%40%39%

30%35%36%

33%28%27%

14%

18%

25%

20%

21% 17%25%

20%16%11%

16%15%13%12%12%16%23%24%

14%12%17%15%

Oc

t '0

9

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly

22%

22% 21% 22% 21% 18%23%

20%

20% 21%21%18%

20%13%

15%

18%

17%

17%

17%

21%17%19%16% 15%15%18%15%15%19%22%25%19%17%20%18%

Oc

t '0

9

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly


% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: August 2010, 2011, 2012 & July 2012

19% 14% 18% 17%

Aug'10 Aug'11 July'12 Aug'12

I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago

62%68% 66% 64%


Now is a good time to buy a house for those

who want to

26% 25% 25% 28%


I am saving a lot more than before because of

the recession

31%23% 25% 25%


I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to

62% 57% 56% 54%


Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:

•Spending

•Saving

•Debt

•Borrowing

Financial Sentiment Indicators



De-Leveraging


“I am saving more because of the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523

Strongly Agree 10% 12% 9% 22% 12% 7% 10% 4% 12% 9%

Slightly Agree 17% 19% 16% 25% 22% 14% 14% 13% 18% 16%

Neither/Nor 19% 21% 16% 16% 18% 22% 11% 23% 21% 16%




The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2012


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'10

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'11

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr'12

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2012


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

0

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

1

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r'1

2

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523

Enjoyment 53% 51% 55% 48% 48% 47% 55% 64% 59% 48%

Happiness 51% 48% 54% 60% 43% 52% 45% 54% 55% 47%

Stress 41% 40% 42% 41% 51% 49% 39% 27% 39% 42%

Worry 38% 36% 39% 39% 46% 47% 33% 26% 33% 42%

Anxiety 31% 28% 35% 34% 35% 30% 30% 29% 31% 32%

Boredom 30% 33% 26% 55% 34% 29% 17% 19% 28% 31%

Physical Pain 22% 22% 23% 18% 21% 26% 24% 23% 20% 25%

Sadness 22% 19% 24% 26% 25% 22% 15% 20% 19% 24%

Anger 18% 19% 18% 20% 22% 25% 14% 12% 16% 21%

Fear 11% 10% 11% 14% 15% 11% 6% 7% 10% 11%


% saying Yes: August 2012


A Positive Turn

The marked improvement in consumer

sentiment in July has been sustained into

August – despite the weather.

Most indicators are significantly improved on

the start of the year, but it’s relative – we’re still

a long way from historical peaks, let alone full

recovery.

Nevertheless, the positive upturn in sentiment

over the summer bodes well for retailers and

others targeting consumers going into the

autumn.

Tune in for next month’s edition of the

Economic Recovery Index to track the

emotional and rational well-being of Ireland’s

consumers.


Let’s Get Visual

If you find Amárach’s Economic

Recovery Index useful (and we

know many of you do) then you

might be interested in our data

visualisation initiative with

Delphi Analytics.

We have partnered to create

an extraordinarily powerful

resource online – for free – to

enable marketers and others to

look at the historical trend in

the ERI going back to April

2009 by demographic group,

main bank etc.

Find out more here: http://delphianalytics.ie/visual-

analytics/economic-recovery-index/

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach Research

We are an independent market research

agency, providing a full range of research

services to our Irish and international

clients. We specialise in turning information

into insight; and insight into foresight.

Our experienced team of directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and

cati surveys; as well as qualitative research

including focus groups, in-depths and

ethnographic studies. We also offer a

unique field-only service to universities and

international agencies.

Amárach Research is proud to be:

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

Technology

Amarach Economic Recovery Index August 2012