Amarach Economic Recovery Index October 2012

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

October 2012 additional analysis by:

main bank, TV subscription, electricity provider, health insurer

© Amárach Research


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out three years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

Our tracking research has shown the

remarkable emotional strength of the Irish

people, who have consistently reported

‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most

frequently experienced emotions.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

October 2012.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 7th to 14th October 2012 inclusive.


A Matter of Measurement

Sept’12: 46% Oct’12: 48%

Sept’12: 28% Oct’12: 28%

Sept’12: 23% Oct’12: 21%

Sept’12: 2% Oct’12: 3%

Sept’12: 1% Oct’12: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

Our ERI Index weakened slightly in October 2012 on the previous month:


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The ERI has weakened steadily since July – October’s index is below October last year,

though up on October 2010:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, October 2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr'09

Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'10

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'11

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12

Feb Mar Apr'12

May June July Aug Sept Oct


Recovery Outlook 1

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:



Cautious Optimism: 1

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am optimistic in spite of the recession”


October 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523

Strongly Agree 13% 12% 14% 16% 14% 13% 11% 11% 13% 13%

Slightly Agree 35% 36% 33% 36% 38% 32% 34% 34% 37% 32%

Neither/Nor 15% 13% 16% 16% 16% 13% 12% 16% 17% 13%

Slightly Disagree 20% 19% 20% 17% 17% 22% 23% 21% 19% 20%

Strongly Disagree 17% 18% 16% 12% 15% 20% 20% 18% 12% 21%


Cautious Optimism: 2

% of Irish adults – by main bank, TV service, electricity supplier and health insurer –

who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am optimistic in spite of the recession”


October 2012 Total AIB BOI Ulster

Bank Sky UPC

Saor

view

Electric

Ireland

Bord

Gais Airtricity VHI

Quinn-

Liberty

Ireland

Aviva

Weighted Sample 1000 366 289 132 422 253 137 534 213 232 230 85 95

Strongly Agree 13% 13% 12% 15% 11% 13% 12% 13% 12% 13% 13% 15% 18%

Slightly Agree 35% 37% 36% 31% 37% 34% 38% 35% 39% 30% 41% 36% 34%

Neither/Nor 15% 13% 18% 14% 16% 13% 12% 16% 14% 14% 14% 11% 12%

Slightly Disagree 20% 18% 15% 26% 17% 22% 21% 19% 18% 24% 18% 19% 19%

Strongly Disagree 17% 18% 18% 14% 19% 16% 15% 17% 16% 18% 13% 18% 15%


Recovery Outlook 2




Heads Down: 1


“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523

Strongly Agree 9% 11% 7% 6% 8% 10% 7% 12% 10% 8%

Slightly Agree 29% 28% 30% 31% 32% 24% 24% 33% 35% 24%

Neither/Nor 13% 14% 12% 13% 11% 15% 12% 14% 14% 11%




Heads Down: 2


who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”



Bank Sky UPC

Saor

view

Electric

Ireland

Bord

Gais Airtricity VHI

Quinn-

Liberty

Ireland

Aviva

Weighted Sample 1000 366 289 132 422 253 137 534 213 232 230 85 95

Strongly Agree 9% 8% 10% 10% 9% 10% 8% 12% 7% 5% 11% 17% 16%

Slightly Agree 29% 30% 32% 26% 26% 35% 25% 29% 30% 32% 41% 30% 29%

Neither/Nor 13% 12% 11% 11% 14% 11% 12% 13% 14% 11% 12% 16% 17%




Recovery Outlook 3




% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: October 2010, 2011, 2012 & October 2012

15% 14% 13% 16%

Oct'10 Oct'11 Sept'12 Oct'12

I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a

few months ago

63% 59% 62% 62%


Now is a good time to buy a house for those who want to

25% 22% 26% 25%


I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession

27% 23% 24% 25%


I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I need to

59% 54% 56% 56%


Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:

•Spending

•Saving

•Debt

•Borrowing

Financial Sentiment Indicators



Spendthrift: 1


“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523

Strongly Agree 4% 5% 3% 6% 7% 3% 3% 2% 4% 4%

Slightly Agree 12% 14% 10% 15% 15% 12% 10% 10% 14% 10%

Neither/Nor 15% 17% 14% 16% 15% 12% 14% 19% 17% 14%




Spendthrift: 2



“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”



Bank Sky UPC

Saor

view

Electric

Ireland

Bord

Gais Airtricity VHI

Quinn-

Liberty

Ireland

Aviva

Weighted Sample 1000 366 289 132 422 253 137 534 213 232 230 85 95

Strongly Agree 4% 4% 5% 2% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 2% 3% 6% 6%

Slightly Agree 12% 12% 13% 11% 11% 14% 9% 13% 11% 12% 15% 20% 14%

Neither/Nor 15% 16% 14% 16% 14% 16% 14% 15% 12% 18% 17% 17% 21%




Rainy Day: 1


“I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523

Strongly Agree 12% 12% 12% 20% 17% 10% 8% 6% 13% 11%

Slightly Agree 13% 13% 12% 15% 12% 13% 13% 12% 16% 11%

Neither/Nor 19% 20% 17% 24% 17% 15% 12% 22% 20% 17%




Rainy Day: 2



“I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession”



Bank Sky UPC

Saor

view

Electric

Ireland

Bord

Gais Airtricity VHI

Quinn-

Liberty

Ireland

Aviva

Weighted Sample 1000 366 289 132 422 253 137 534 213 232 230 85 95

Strongly Agree 12% 11% 14% 11% 11% 15% 11% 12% 13% 11% 13% 14% 15%

Slightly Agree 13% 11% 14% 15% 12% 17% 9% 13% 14% 11% 18% 12% 10%

Neither/Nor 19% 20% 20% 17% 16% 20% 19% 19% 18% 19% 21% 22% 27%




The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2012


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'10

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr'12

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2012


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

0

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

1

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n

Feb

Ma

r

Ap

r'1

2

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods: 1



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523

Enjoyment 53% 56% 51% 52% 46% 48% 48% 68% 57% 50%

Happiness 51% 49% 53% 59% 47% 43% 51% 55% 54% 49%

Stress 40% 38% 42% 50% 50% 50% 36% 21% 41% 39%

Worry 40% 37% 42% 51% 39% 47% 42% 26% 39% 40%

Anxiety 28% 27% 30% 36% 33% 30% 29% 17% 29% 27%

Boredom 26% 26% 26% 44% 32% 23% 22% 15% 26% 27%

Physical Pain 20% 18% 21% 16% 21% 22% 19% 19% 18% 21%

Sadness 19% 16% 23% 25% 19% 18% 18% 18% 16% 22%

Anger 13% 15% 11% 13% 17% 19% 11% 6% 12% 14%

Fear 9% 8% 11% 15% 11% 12% 7% 5% 8% 10%


% saying Yes: October 2012


Changing Moods: 2

% of Irish adults – by main bank, TV service, electricity supplier and health insurer:

did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? Yes: October 2012



Bank Sky UPC

Saor

view

Electric

Ireland

Bord

Gais Airtricity VHI

Quinn-

Liberty

Ireland

Aviva

1000 366 289 132 422 253 137 534 213 232 230 85 95

Enjoyment 53% 49% 56% 61% 53% 56% 53% 52% 54% 53% 54% 58% 54%

Happiness 51% 49% 53% 53% 48% 55% 50% 51% 52% 50% 54% 51% 54%

Stress 40% 42% 37% 34% 43% 41% 35% 38% 42% 43% 36% 36% 47%

Worry 40% 40% 38% 35% 40% 43% 39% 41% 36% 39% 37% 30% 35%

Anxiety 28% 33% 24% 28% 29% 29% 26% 29% 26% 29% 27% 24% 31%

Boredom 26% 27% 24% 26% 23% 28% 27% 29% 23% 22% 23% 23% 21%

Physical Pain 20% 22% 15% 18% 23% 18% 14% 19% 18% 21% 21% 25% 18%

Sadness 19% 22% 19% 18% 21% 20% 16% 20% 18% 20% 18% 19% 21%

Anger 13% 14% 10% 13% 15% 10% 10% 13% 12% 13% 13% 8% 11%

Fear 9% 11% 9% 9% 8% 10% 9% 11% 5% 10% 9% 6% 10%


Wait & See

October has seen some further deterioration in

expectations for Ireland’s economic recovery –

though the mood is better than a year ago.

This month we have continued our analysis of

consumer sentiment in terms of customer

categories for TV service providers, electricity

suppliers and health insurers – as before, there

are marked differences in mood by customer

base.

Overall, however, consumers appear to be

adopting a ‘wait and see’ attitude towards the

forthcoming Budget, which will put some

spending on hold.

For marketers, growing market share must be

the number one priority for 2013, with holding

onto existing customers a close second…


Let’s Get Visual

If you find Amárach’s Economic

Recovery Index useful (and we

know many of you do) then you

might be interested in our data

visualisation initiative with

Delphi Analytics.

We have partnered to create

an extraordinarily powerful

resource online – for free – to

enable marketers and others to

look at the historical trend in

the ERI going back to April

2009 by demographic group,

main bank etc.

Find out more here: http://delphianalytics.ie/visual-

analytics/economic-recovery-index/

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach Research

We are an independent market research

agency, providing a full range of research

services to our Irish and international

clients. We specialise in turning information

into insight; and insight into foresight.

Our experienced team of directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and

cati surveys; as well as qualitative research

including focus groups, in-depths and

ethnographic studies. We also offer a

unique field-only service to universities and

international agencies.

Amárach Research is proud to be:

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

Documents

Amarach Economic Recovery Index October 2012