1 Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing
June 2012
© Amárach Research
2 Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out three years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
June 2012.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 18th to 24th June 2012 inclusive.
3 Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
May’12: 48% June’12: 50%
May’12: 26% June’12: 29%
May’12: 24% June’12: 20%
May’12: 2% June’12: 1%
May’12: 0% June’12: 0%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
The economic outlook has fallen back steadily since March:
4 Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI fell back to 18.2 in June, down from a recent high of 22.3 in March 2012:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, June 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr'09
Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'10
MayJune July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'11
MayJune July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12
Feb Mar Apr'12
MayJune
5 Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 1
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, June 2012
34%41%44% 42%43%
46%48%
41%43%
52%
41% 42%43% 42%42%
42%39%
31%26%18%
23%26%24%25%24%28%
23%26%24%26%26%23%22%21%26%
30%31%25%25%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Ju
ne
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly
57% 59%65%
58% 60%62%
55%
51%
51%
61%
55%54%52% 53%
54%55%
50% 46%44%
33%41%
48%44%
48%47%53%
47%48%48%47%49%42%39%
45%44%50%51%
47%43%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Ju
ne
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly
6 Economic Recovery Index
Fainter Hearted
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation”
Source: Amárach Research, June 2012
June 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 187 156 266 478 524
Strongly Agree 12% 11% 12% 11% 13% 8% 9% 14% 15% 9%
Slightly Agree 31% 30% 32% 37% 28% 25% 30% 35% 35% 28%
Neither/Nor 17% 20% 14% 19% 17% 18% 14% 16% 19% 15%
Slightly Disagree 22% 20% 24% 19% 25% 29% 18% 18% 19% 25%
Strongly Disagree 18% 19% 17% 12% 14% 19% 28% 16% 13% 22%
7 Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 2
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, June 2012
48% 48%51% 47%48%48%46%
45%45%50%
47% 43%47%45%
45%
47%
46%41%41%
32%34%39%37%36%39%40%
34%39%
34%38%38%34%33%37%41%40%42%38%36%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Ju
ne
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly
59%
62% 61%60%61%60%56%
52%
56%55%53% 55%
53%51%50%
55%
54%
53%
52% 45%45%49%45%47%48%50%44%
49%46%49%45%45%43%46%49%48%50%45%45%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'10
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Ju
ne
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
8 Economic Recovery Index
Feeling Uncomfortable
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, June 2012
June 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 187 156 266 478 524
Strongly Agree 9% 8% 9% 9% 8% 5% 9% 11% 12% 6%
Slightly Agree 27% 26% 28% 32% 22% 24% 25% 31% 34% 21%
Neither/Nor 13% 16% 9% 12% 15% 14% 7% 13% 13% 12%
Slightly Disagree 26% 26% 26% 26% 30% 25% 24% 24% 25% 27%
Strongly Disagree 24% 22% 26% 17% 22% 31% 33% 18% 14% 32%
9 Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 3
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, June 2012
43% 43%42%46%
35%40%39%
30%35% 36%
33%28%27%
14%
18%
25%
20%
21% 17%25%
20% 16%11%
16% 15% 13% 12% 12% 16%23% 24%
14%12%
Oc
t '0
9
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Ju
ne
The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly
22%
22% 21% 22% 21% 18%23%
20%
20% 21%21%18%
20%13%
15%
18%
17%
17%
17%
21% 17% 19% 16% 15% 15% 18% 15% 15% 19% 22% 25%19%17%
Oc
t '0
9
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'10
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Ju
ne
I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly
10 Economic Recovery Index
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: June 2010, 2011, 2012 & May 2012
22%14% 18% 15%
June'10 June'11 May'12 June'12
I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago
68%60% 60% 63%
June'10 June'11 May'12 June'12
Now is a good time to buy a house for those
who want to
24% 25% 27% 25%
June'10 June'11 May'12 June'12
I am saving a lot more than before because of
the recession
30%23% 27% 23%
June'10 June'11 May'12 June'12
I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I
need to
61% 59% 56% 55%
June'10 June'11 May'12 June'12
Paying off debts is my main financial priority
Impact on:
•Spending
•Saving
•Debt
•Borrowing
Financial Sentiment Indicators
Source: Amárach Research, June 2012
11 Economic Recovery Index
De-Leveraging
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“Paying off my debts is my main priority”
Source: Amárach Research, June 2012
June 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 187 156 266 478 524
Strongly Agree 35% 36% 34% 16% 38% 40% 44% 36% 33% 37%
Slightly Agree 20% 21% 20% 25% 18% 18% 22% 20% 20% 20%
Neither/Nor 14% 17% 12% 17% 16% 14% 12% 13% 16% 13%
Slightly Disagree 7% 8% 7% 8% 6% 10% 5% 7% 7% 7%
Strongly Disagree 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 5% 9% 7% 7% 7%
12 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to June 2012
Source: Amárach Research, June 2012
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr
'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'10
May
Jun
e
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'11
May
Jun
e
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr'12
May
Jun
e
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
13 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to June 2012
Source: Amárach Research, June 2012
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Ap
r '0
9
Ma
y
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
0
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
1
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r'1
2
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
14 Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods
Source: Amárach Research, June 2012
June 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1002 495 507 169 223 187 156 266 478 524
Enjoyment 54% 54% 54% 57% 49% 44% 49% 67% 62% 47%
Happiness 52% 52% 52% 61% 52% 43% 47% 56% 54% 50%
Stress 42% 41% 43% 47% 54% 47% 41% 27% 40% 44%
Worry 39% 38% 40% 43% 45% 41% 43% 27% 35% 42%
Anxiety 31% 30% 31% 36% 31% 31% 32% 26% 30% 31%
Boredom 28% 28% 28% 51% 34% 21% 26% 15% 28% 28%
Physical Pain 24% 22% 26% 26% 22% 20% 22% 29% 22% 26%
Sadness 20% 17% 23% 22% 26% 17% 15% 19% 16% 24%
Anger 16% 19% 14% 21% 22% 18% 15% 7% 14% 18%
Fear 9% 9% 10% 8% 15% 10% 9% 6% 7% 11%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: June 2012
15 Economic Recovery Index
News From Abroad
There has been a measurable decline in the
economic outlook among Irish consumers –
especially in relation to optimism about the end
of the recession.
Their emotional resilience remains strong, but
the economic impact of this shift in sentiment
cannot be ignored.
Marketers need to focus on those segments
insulated from the worst of the economic
turbulence (the tables in this report should help)
especially in relation to customer loyalty and
profitable pricing.
Take nothing for granted – and make sure your
brand positioning fits with the dominant (still
positive) emotions of the Irish people.
16 Economic Recovery Index
Let’s Get Visual
If you find Amárach’s Economic
Recovery Index useful (and we
know many of you do) then you
might be interested in our data
visualisation initiative with
Delphi Analytics.
We have partnered to create
an extraordinarily powerful
resource online – for free – to
enable marketers and others to
look at the historical trend in
the ERI going back to April
2009 by demographic group,
main bank etc.
Find out more here: http://delphianalytics.ie/visual-
analytics/economic-recovery-index/
Drivers & Drinking
About Amárach Research
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clients. We specialise in turning information
into insight; and insight into foresight.
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executives manage online, face-to-face and
cati surveys; as well as qualitative research
including focus groups, in-depths and
ethnographic studies. We also offer a
unique field-only service to universities and
international agencies.
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or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive
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