SarahWynn_Prague_June11

www.adas.co.uk

Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate

in UK agricultureSarah Wynn

[email protected] Clarke & Sarah Cook

Monsanto Weed Workshop “North”13th – 15th June 2011Movenpick - Prague

mailto:[email protected]

Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture


BackgroundProject methodologyMajor uses of glyphosate in the UKMajor implications and value of use

EconomicEnvironmentalSocial

ConclusionsKey issues to address


Glyphosate in contextImportant in agriculture and amenity

Controls most vegetation growing at the time of applicationWide range of UK crops and grassAmenity and home and garden sectors

Concerns to be addressedFrequently detected in surface water at low levels

Above 0.1µg/l drinking water limitSome residues in grainConcentrations below level of health issuesConcern that restrictions may be put on its use

Monsanto adopting pro-active approach to managing the concerns and ensuring continued availability


4

Glyphosate: world’s best-selling herbicide

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Glyphosate

Acetochlor

Metolachlor

Paraquat

2,4-DFenoxapro

pAtra

zine

Pendimeth

alinMeso

trione

Glufosinate

Sulfosa

teIm

azeth

apyrTrif

luralin

DicambaClodinafo

p

Sale

s $M

Source: Phillips McDougall, 2008

• First marketed 1973• No1 selling herbicide since 1980• US Patent expired 2000• Roundup Ready® patents since 1996

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Glyphosate is the largest agrochemical product worldwide and 7 times bigger than the #2 herbicide Acetochlor


Glyphosate in Europe

Pre-harvestCereals, oilseeds, pulses

Pre-planting or pre-emergenceWide range of crops

Vegetation controlOrchards, vineyards, non-agricultural, amenity


Herbicide use in UK – area sprayed (ha) and active substance (kg) – arable crops 2008

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

Glypho

sate

Isoprot

uron

Triflura

linFluf

enac

et/pen

dimeth

alin

Mecop

rop-P

Fluroxy

pyr

Iodos

ulfuro

n/mes

osulf

uron

Ha tr

eate

d

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Kg a

ctiv

e su

bsta

nce

used

Ha Active substance

Source: Pesticides Usage Survey, 2008

Approval ceased 2008


Project methodology

Desk based projectLiterature and expert knowledge

Project reports and experimentsData sources and validation

Pesticides Usage Survey 2008Agronomists and farmers workshops

Gross margin calculationsEnvironmental calculations

GHG emissions (CO2e) based on PAS2050


Main glyphosate use in UKPre-harvest• Perennial weed control• Harvest aid – reducing

moisture

Pre-planting• Annual and perennial weed

control (stale seed bed)• Can reduce need for

cultivation and reduces herbicide within crop

Pre-emergence• Annual weed

control


Establishing the impacts

Identify key benefitsIdentify alternative approaches

Herbicides: diquat, glufosinate-ammonium, pyraflufen-ethylOther: cultivation, later planting, direct combining

Calculate implications of unavailabilityCostSocial and environmental


Benefits of pre-harvest useTiming BenefitWeed control Elytrigia repens control: 100 shoots/m2

could cause at least 10% yield reductions 10% in wheat, 15% in OSR, greater in spring crops

Uneven or weedy crops

Dries out green materiallowers harvest moisture (1-2%)

General Increased combine efficiency – increased speed of travelLower harvest cost 3.5L/ha fuel saved


Benefits pre-planting/pre-emergenceTiming BenefitStale seed beds Controls weeds and volunteer

cropsPre-planting Bare soil prior to planting reduces

pest and disease infectionPre-planting and pre-emergence

Mode of action reduces herbicide resistance pressures

Typical benefit 20% increase in yield


Value of key benefits of glyphosateUse Key benefits Value

(£/ha treated)

Pre-harvest in winter wheat

Elytrigia repens control to prevent yield loss across a rotation, reduction in drying costs

56

Pre-harvest in oilseed rape

Desiccant and harvest aid, reduced drying and earlier harvest

108

Pre-planting of winter wheat

Reduce grass weeds, such as Alopecurus myosuroides, volunteers and perennial weeds

310


Assessing impacts at UK scale

Crop areasAverage areas affected by weedsUsage patterns/area treated

Pesticide Usage SurveyAgronomist/farmer workshops


Wheat and oilseed rape: major UK crops

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Wheat Winterbarley

Springbarley

Oats OSR Peas Beans

000 ha £m value

Source: Defra Statistics 2008, UK


Area treated with glyphosate in UK 2008Crop Area treated

(spray ha)No of

applications% crop treated

% Pre-harvest

Wheat 651,000 1.16 27 78Winter barley 120,000 1.18 25 77Spring barley 175,000 1.14 26 83Oats 23,000 1.17 19 94

OSR 529,000 1.25 70 96Peas 19,000 1.39 45 87Beans 73,000 1.20 51 41

Source: Pesticides Usage Survey, 2008


% area treated, by crop, with glyphosate

Sources: Pesticide Usage Survey 2008 (PUS), Agronomist/Farmer meetings in West & East of England

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Wheat Spring Barley OSR

Pre-planting PUS Pre-harvest PUSPre-planting West Pre-harvest WestPre-planting East Pre-harvest East


-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%Wheat Spring Barley OSR

Pre-planting Pre-harvest

Yields reduced without glyphosate


Estimated % loss of production to UK, by crop, without glyphosate

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Wheat

Winter B

arley

Spring b

arley

Oats OSR

Peas

Beans

Pre-planting Pre-harvest


Estimated loss £m to UK, all crops, without glyphosate

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0Pre-planting Pre-harvest


Impact of losses at farm scale

Wheat, wheat, oilseed rape (OSR)On a 100 ha farm£47,300 annual costUnprofitable to grow cropsRotational change


Impact of loss on food prices

To maintain current farm income levels requires increased price/tonne of:

Wheat 40%Oilseed rape 26%

Increase in price of productsBread 3.6p/loafLivestock feed and meat prices


Environmental impactsSoils- More cultivation , more erosion, poorer structure

Land use- Limited availability, GHG impacts

Biodiversity+ If more spring cropping- Increased cultivation, Land Use Change (LUC)

Water quality- Alternative herbicides, sediment

Greenhouse gas emissions


Implications for GHG emissions

Based on PAS20501 methodologyDefault value for LUC (could be underestimate)

Increased fuel useLow yields increase emissions per tonneEstimate increase CO2e of 25-65% for UK wheat production

1Publicly available specification 2050 (PAS2050):2008 – Specification for the assessment of the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of goods and services. Available from www.bsigroup.com/pas2050

http://www.bsigroup.com/pas2050


Social impacts

Quality of life for farm workers100% increase in labour/time required for cultivation and harvestReduced harvest flexibility


Loss of glyphosate would cause....Severe losses to UK agriculture

Greatest loss is pre-planting use£150m - £550m/year for wheat (c. £300/ha treated)£225m - £810m/year for all crops

Additional losses pre-harvest use£72m - £152m/year in wheat (c. £50/ha treated)> £300m in all crops (c. £100/ha OSR treated)

Negative impacts to the environmentCrop area increased by 5-20% (if land available)GHG emissions increased by up to 65%Soil quality, water quality and biodiversity reduced


Actions required to retain availability of valuable active substance

Need to resolve uncertainty over area treated ifgreater precision of impact is requiredPro-active campaign to:

Remind farmers, agronomists and policymakers of benefitsRemind policymakers levels are below level of health impact

Ensure always used to best practiceProtect watercourses

Avoid point source contamination and driftEnsure any use is always justified

www.adas.co.uk

Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate

in UK agricultureSarah Wynn

[email protected] Clarke & Sarah Cook

Monsanto Weed Workshop “North”13th – 15th June 2011Movenpick - Prague

mailto:[email protected]

Technology

SarahWynn_Prague_June11