13 December Daily technical trader

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  1. 1. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 5 Daily Technical Trader Qatar Sunday, 13 December 2015 Stock Covered Today Ticker Price 1 st Target IQCD 102.70 100.00 QSE Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 10,014.82 -0.04 8.2 Resistance/Support Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 10,300 10,500 10,800 Support 10,000 9,900 9,800 QSE Index Commentary Overview: The QSE Index stabilized another week above the 10,000 level. The Index is prone to oil prices fluctuations and Fridays drop in oil prices could have a strong influence on the general market sentiment. As a result, we expect more volatility on our down-trending market. Expected Resistance Level: 10,300 Expected Support Level: 10,000 QSE Index (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research QE Summary Market Indicators 10 Dec 09 Dec %Ch. Value Traded (QR mn) 256.2 391.0 -34.5 Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 528.8 528.5 0.1 Volume (mn) 7.0 8.9 -20.9 Number of Trans. 4,123 5,006 -17.6 Companies Traded 39 42 -7.1 Market Breadth 19:16 9:29 QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Total Return 15,566.60 0.0 26.5 All Share Index 2,670.67 0.0 25.5 Banks 2,720.64 -0.9 32.5 Industrials 3,002.13 0.1 31.2 Transportation 2,419.71 1.8 38.3 Real Estate 2,225.73 1.8 29.2 Insurance 4,003.49 -1.7 33.4 Telecoms 909.97 2.0 41.0 Consumer 5,812.56 -0.4 11.9 Al Rayan Islamic 3,694.44 0.0 21.5 RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI QCFS 38.00 0.0 17.7 ZHCD 84.00 0.0 18.1 MCGS 120.30 -5.1 18.6 MRDS 14.10 -0.1 20.5 DOHI 20.03 -0.9 23.6 QSE Index (30min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  2. 2. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 5 IQCD Price % Ch. Volume Last 102.70 -1.15 162,995 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 105.00 110.00 113.00 Support 101.50 100.00 94.50 Commentary Overview: IQCD has been in a downtrend for the past year; this trend might continue. We realize that the price is just above an important support. The mentioned support lies around the QR100.00 mark. It is a psychological figure that happened to be at the lower border of the downtrend channel. As a result, we expect the price to tumble further once it breaks below the QR100.00 because once it does breach that limit, it will hit the fresh five-year low territory. Expected Price Retreat: QR100.00 QR94.50 A price breach below QR101.50 triggers the sell recommendation. (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  3. 3. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 5 Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3 rd 2 nd 1 st Pivot 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA QSE Index 10,014.82 9,813.24 9,874.77 9,912.79 9,974.32 10,035.85 10,073.87 10,135.40 11,149.93 11,355.95 11,694.98 Total Return 15,566.60 15,253.29 15,348.92 15,408.01 15,503.65 15,599.28 15,658.37 15,754.01 17,330.97 17,651.19 18,146.04 All Share 2,670.67 2,621.54 2,636.23 2,645.31 2,659.99 2,674.68 2,683.76 2,698.44 2,968.71 3,026.69 3,117.69 Al Rayan Islamic 3,694.44 3,615.48 3,641.72 3,657.92 3,684.16 3,710.40 3,726.60 3,752.84 4,205.39 4,329.36 4,434.61 Banks & Financials Services MARK 36.30 35.20 35.52 35.73 36.05 36.37 36.58 36.90 41.08 42.29 44.52 CBQK 45.10 43.37 44.04 44.45 45.12 45.79 46.20 46.87 51.86 53.89 55.49 DHBK 44.60 43.40 43.74 43.96 44.30 44.64 44.86 45.20 48.23 50.00 51.68 QIBK 113.00 112.27 112.65 112.88 113.27 113.65 113.88 114.27 117.39 114.41 109.04 QIIK 65.10 63.57 64.18 64.56 65.17 65.78 66.16 66.77 72.81 74.57 77.55 Insurance QATI 80.50 79.03 79.87 80.39 81.23 82.07 82.59 83.43 90.97 94.12 90.48 Consumer Goods & Services MCGS 120.30 115.50 118.14 119.76 122.40 125.04 126.66 129.30 152.38 162.09 164.38 Industrials IQCD 102.70 100.17 100.97 101.46 102.27 103.07 103.56 104.37 116.31 123.55 132.25 QEWS 208.00 205.47 206.19 206.64 207.37 208.09 208.54 209.27 210.53 212.55 209.46 GISS 51.30 47.57 48.83 49.61 50.87 52.13 52.91 54.17 60.41 62.46 73.84 QIGD 36.05 34.08 34.81 35.26 35.98 36.71 37.16 37.88 43.32 45.59 46.81 Real Estate BRES 40.00 38.40 38.93 39.27 39.80 40.33 40.67 41.20 43.34 44.51 47.05 UDCD 19.80 18.86 19.15 19.32 19.61 19.90 20.07 20.36 23.13 23.67 23.40 ERES 14.85 13.95 14.26 14.46 14.77 15.08 15.28 15.59 18.15 18.11 17.63 MRDS 14.10 13.83 13.93 13.99 14.10 14.20 14.26 14.37 15.91 16.35 17.42 Telecommunication ORDS 70.70 68.10 68.90 69.40 70.20 71.00 71.50 72.30 74.77 75.04 86.25 VFQS 11.02 10.54 10.71 10.82 10.99 11.16 11.27 11.44 13.39 13.94 15.55 Transportation QGTS 22.88 21.89 22.18 22.36 22.64 22.93 23.11 23.39 24.12 23.08 22.90 QNNS 96.30 96.30 96.30 96.30 96.30 96.30 96.30 96.30 97.69 97.58 98.71 Sources: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock close price
  4. 4. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 5 Definitions: Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices. Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher. Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower. SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels. Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold. Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a securitys price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc. Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement. Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
  5. 5. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 5 Contacts: Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services SPC Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (QNBFS) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (QNB). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing w