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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Tuesday, 31 March 2015

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

QIIK 78.00 79.40

GISS 91.50 95.00

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 11,586.83 0.9 4.8

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 11,600 11,760 11,960

Support 11,500 11,450 11,350

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The QSE Index breached the 11,500 resistance and closed above it, indicating the up movement on the Index may continue to the 11,600 which happens to be the next significant resistance level. The good news is that the MACD on the daily is turning up while it is already above the zero line on the intraday. In addition, the RSI is clearly above the oversold area on the daily chart. Expected Resistance Level: 11,500 Expected Support Level: 11,350

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 30 Mar 15 29 Mar 15 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 394.7 317.7 24.2

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 627.2 620.7 1.1

Volume (mn) 7.7 7.4 4.4

Number of Trans. 5,604 3,571 56.9

Companies Traded 41 40 2.5

Market Breadth 27:10 27:11 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 18,005.03 1.3 45.7

All Share Index 3,105.12 1.3 44.7

Banks 3,153.73 1.2 45.5

Industrials 3,808.94 1.8 43.3

Transportation 2,384.66 0.2 36.6

Real Estate 2,383.40 1.6 50.1

Insurance 4,147.07 0.7 55.1

Telecoms 1,325.42 1.2 40.8

Consumer 6,844.58 0.6 34.0

Al Rayan Islamic 4,248.73 1.4 47.1

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QFLS 177.80 0.9 25.9

ORDS 99.90 -3.0 26.0

CBQK 56.40 -0.4 26.2

QGTS 22.11 -0.9 26.6

UDCD 21.05 0.4 26.6

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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QIIK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 78.00 0.26 51,356

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 78.30 79.40 80.00

Support 77.10 75.00 74.30

Commentary

Overview: The name stabilized above the QR75.00 level and might extend its gains a little further. Over the past two weeks, the stock created a small range and it bounced off the lower end of the range upwards. We expect that the stock could reach QR79.40 then QR80.00 if momentum picks up. A break above QR80.00 will confirm a bullish Double-Bottom formation. Expected Target Price: QR79.40 – QR80.00 A break above QR78.30 triggers the long position recommendation. Suggested Stop-loss Price: QR77.10

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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GISS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 91.50 2.23 242,393

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 91.50 95.00 99.00

Support 89.40 87.00 82.00

Commentary

Overview: The name reached the upper boundary of the downtrend channel. Two forces are in play, the resistance force of the previous bottoms in combination with the upper side of the downtrend line vs. the Double Bottom (which is a bullish reversal pattern). Based on technical indicators, we lean towards the latter. Expected Target Price: QR95.00 – QR99.00 A break above QR91.50 triggers the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-loss Price: QR89.40

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 11,586.83 11,431.20 11,478.46 11,507.66 11,554.93 11,602.19 11,631.39 11,678.66 12,100.90 12,390.67 12,838.28

Total Return 18,005.03 17,763.18 17,836.63 17,882.01 17,955.45 18,028.90 18,074.28 18,147.72 18,326.89 18,619.82 19,217.62

All Share 3,105.12 3,061.79 3,074.20 3,081.87 3,094.29 3,106.70 3,114.37 3,126.79 3,161.69 3,196.43 3,278.64

Al Rayan Islamic 4,248.73 4,181.51 4,200.90 4,212.88 4,232.27 4,251.66 4,263.64 4,283.03 4,276.79 4,266.50 4,376.64

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 47.05 46.78 46.92 47.00 47.13 47.27 47.35 47.48 46.80 46.60 50.28

CBQK 56.40 55.27 55.76 56.07 56.57 57.06 57.37 57.87 61.68 62.60 62.78

DHBK 50.10 49.77 49.88 49.95 50.07 50.18 50.25 50.37 55.63 56.34 57.74

QIBK 99.60 98.07 98.53 98.81 99.27 99.73 100.01 100.47 103.56 103.53 105.77

QIIK 78.00 76.60 77.06 77.34 77.80 78.26 78.54 79.00 82.84 82.40 84.21

Insurance

QATI 78.50 78.50 78.50 78.50 78.50 78.50 78.50 78.50 77.61 77.58 78.82

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 142.50 138.77 139.95 140.68 141.87 143.05 143.78 144.97 139.93 130.80 121.87

Industrials

IQCD 135.00 130.47 131.99 132.94 134.47 135.99 136.94 138.47 146.44 162.62 173.09

QEWS 189.90 186.70 187.62 188.18 189.10 190.02 190.58 191.50 190.93 189.13 187.73

GISS 91.50 88.70 89.50 90.00 90.80 91.60 92.10 92.90 96.76 100.00 106.43

QIGD 38.85 37.35 37.79 38.06 38.50 38.94 39.21 39.65 40.90 41.72 49.20

Real Estate

BRES 44.50 42.87 43.38 43.70 44.22 44.73 45.05 45.57 47.28 46.15 43.50

UDCD 21.05 20.82 20.92 20.97 21.06 21.16 21.21 21.30 23.71 24.22 25.88

ERES 15.58 15.15 15.28 15.36 15.48 15.61 15.69 15.81 15.71 16.11 18.29

MRDS 17.89 17.43 17.58 17.68 17.83 17.98 18.08 18.23 19.53 20.03 20.81

Telecommunication

ORDS 99.90 97.03 98.33 99.13 100.43 101.73 102.53 103.83 112.01 114.88 122.95

VFQS 17.70 17.39 17.49 17.55 17.66 17.76 17.82 17.93 17.00 16.95 18.61

Transportation

QGTS 22.11 21.86 21.98 22.06 22.19 22.31 22.39 22.52 23.86 23.55 23.68

QNNS 98.50 98.17 98.36 98.48 98.67 98.86 98.98 99.17 102.88 100.44 97.47 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts:

Saugata Sarkar QNB Financial Services SPC

Head of Research Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.