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COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6 Daily Technical Trader Qatar Monday, 30 March 2015 Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Target QNNS 98.50 95.60 NLCS 20.90 20.10 QSE Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 11,488.41 0.7 9.3 Resistance/Support Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 11,500 11,600 11,700 Support 11,450 11,350 11,200 QSE Index Commentary Overview: The QSE Index reached the expected level of 11,500 points but could not sustain its position above it. It is important to break above that level to confirm we have a bullish move in the short-term. Otherwise, the Index may drop from these levels because it reached the upper boundary of the short-term downtrend channel (denoted in red). Expected Resistance Level: 11,500 Expected Support Level: 11,350 QSE Index (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research QE Summary Market Indicators 29 Mar 15 26 Mar 15 %Ch. Value Traded (QR mn) 317.7 545.6 -41.8 Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 620.7 617.5 0.5 Volume (mn) 7.4 12.1 -38.5 Number of Trans. 3,571 7,649 -53.3 Companies Traded 40 41 -2.4 Market Breadth 27:11 9:30 QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Total Return 17,775.10 0.7 38.9 All Share Index 3,065.82 0.6 37.4 Banks 3,116.69 0.3 39.8 Industrials 3,741.46 0.7 33.6 Transportation 2,380.61 -0.7 35.2 Real Estate 2,345.06 2.0 44.7 Insurance 4,117.37 1.2 52.9 Telecoms 1,310.33 0.1 35.7 Consumer 6,804.18 -0.2 29.4 Al Rayan Islamic 4,188.96 0.5 40.0 RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI QFLS 176.20 -1.3 22.1 UDCD 20.97 -0.7 25.1 CBQK 56.60 -0.4 26.7 QGTS 22.30 0.5 28.6 IQCD 132.60 0.3 28.7 QSE Index (30min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

30 March Daily technical trader

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Page 1: 30 March Daily technical trader

COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6

Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Monday, 30 March 2015

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

QNNS 98.50 95.60

NLCS 20.90 20.10

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 11,488.41 0.7 9.3

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 11,500 11,600 11,700

Support 11,450 11,350 11,200

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The QSE Index reached the expected level of 11,500 points but could not sustain its position above it. It is important to break above that level to confirm we have a bullish move in the short-term. Otherwise, the Index may drop from these levels because it reached the upper boundary of the short-term downtrend channel (denoted in red). Expected Resistance Level: 11,500 Expected Support Level: 11,350

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 29 Mar 15 26 Mar 15 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 317.7 545.6 -41.8

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 620.7 617.5 0.5

Volume (mn) 7.4 12.1 -38.5

Number of Trans. 3,571 7,649 -53.3

Companies Traded 40 41 -2.4

Market Breadth 27:11 9:30 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 17,775.10 0.7 38.9

All Share Index 3,065.82 0.6 37.4

Banks 3,116.69 0.3 39.8

Industrials 3,741.46 0.7 33.6

Transportation 2,380.61 -0.7 35.2

Real Estate 2,345.06 2.0 44.7

Insurance 4,117.37 1.2 52.9

Telecoms 1,310.33 0.1 35.7

Consumer 6,804.18 -0.2 29.4

Al Rayan Islamic 4,188.96 0.5 40.0

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QFLS 176.20 -1.3 22.1

UDCD 20.97 -0.7 25.1

CBQK 56.60 -0.4 26.7

QGTS 22.30 0.5 28.6

IQCD 132.60 0.3 28.7

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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QNNS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 98.50 -1.20 54,525

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 100.00 102.00 103.70

Support 98.50 97.30 95.60

Commentary

Overview: The name stabilized over the past 5 sessions, creating a price base. It is important for the stock to remain above QR98.50 to maintain strength on the name. That been said, we expect that it might not be strong enough to hold its ground and the drop may continue. Expected Price Retreat: QR95.60 A break below QR98.00 triggers the sell idea.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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NLCS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 20.90 0.97 1,379,901

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 21.20 22.10 22.80

Support 20.70 20.10 19.10

Commentary

Overview: The name is struggling to break above the medium-term downtrend line. The name created a congestion area that started from the beginning of the year which is acting as a strong resistance in addition to the implied resistance stemmed from the downtrend line. The MACD is below the zero line on the daily chart and it is turning down on the hourly chart; both indicate bearish momentum is still intact. Expected Price Retreat: QR20.10 – QR19.10 A break below QR20.70 triggers the sell recommendation.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 11,488.41 11,287.11 11,354.18 11,395.61 11,462.68 11,529.75 11,571.18 11,638.25 12,106.41 12,412.79 12,846.05

Total Return 17,775.10 17,463.65 17,567.41 17,631.52 17,735.29 17,839.05 17,903.16 18,006.93 18,320.64 18,645.59 19,225.59

All Share 3,065.82 3,019.09 3,034.81 3,044.52 3,060.25 3,075.97 3,085.68 3,101.41 3,160.54 3,200.20 3,279.67

Al Rayan Islamic 4,188.96 4,129.55 4,149.92 4,162.50 4,182.86 4,203.23 4,215.81 4,236.17 4,271.44 4,269.73 4,377.49

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 46.70 44.53 45.26 45.71 46.43 47.16 47.61 48.33 46.75 46.64 50.33

CBQK 56.60 55.87 56.17 56.36 56.67 56.97 57.16 57.47 61.78 62.71 62.80

DHBK 49.80 49.07 49.30 49.44 49.67 49.90 50.04 50.27 55.75 56.43 57.80

QIBK 98.10 96.83 97.56 98.01 98.73 99.46 99.91 100.63 103.71 103.66 105.76

QIIK 77.80 74.60 75.56 76.15 77.10 78.06 78.65 79.60 82.86 82.49 84.24

Insurance

QATI 78.50 77.83 78.02 78.14 78.33 78.52 78.64 78.83 77.50 77.65 78.76

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 142.50 141.57 142.10 142.43 142.97 143.50 143.83 144.37 139.56 130.63 121.58

Industrials

IQCD 132.60 131.00 131.69 132.11 132.80 133.49 133.91 134.60 146.64 163.23 173.34

QEWS 187.50 182.50 184.37 185.53 187.40 189.27 190.43 192.30 190.93 189.12 187.72

GISS 89.50 86.17 87.31 88.02 89.17 90.31 91.02 92.17 96.91 100.36 106.43

QIGD 38.10 37.37 37.65 37.83 38.12 38.40 38.58 38.87 40.90 41.83 49.32

Real Estate

BRES 45.40 40.70 42.21 43.14 44.65 46.16 47.09 48.60 47.14 46.13 43.47

UDCD 20.97 20.54 20.70 20.80 20.95 21.11 21.21 21.36 23.76 24.27 25.91

ERES 15.38 14.23 14.57 14.79 15.14 15.48 15.70 16.05 15.69 16.16 18.33

MRDS 17.75 17.18 17.37 17.49 17.67 17.86 17.98 18.16 19.55 20.10 20.81

Telecommunication

ORDS 103.00 94.67 97.15 98.68 101.17 103.65 105.18 107.67 112.60 115.32 123.45

VFQS 17.39 17.16 17.27 17.34 17.45 17.56 17.63 17.74 16.94 16.98 18.62

Transportation

QGTS 22.30 21.70 21.93 22.07 22.30 22.53 22.67 22.90 23.89 23.57 23.69

QNNS 98.50 97.50 98.07 98.43 99.00 99.57 99.93 100.50 102.89 100.45 97.44 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts:

Saugata Sarkar QNB Financial Services SPC

Head of Research Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 PO Box 24025 [email protected] Doha, Qatar

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 [email protected] [email protected]

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.