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A survey of 1,000 Irish people about their views on the economy and intentions for spending, saving and borrowing.
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The Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing
October Index Results
© Amárach Research 2009
August 2011 Results
The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
2
The Emotional Recovery
• We have been reporting our monthly
Recovery Indicator since April 2009.
• We set out two years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery
alongside our ‘economic progress’.
• Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
• But we are still in recession – and the path to
recovery still lies some way ahead.
• We will help you along that path.
3
Timing Recovery
• All recessions end in recovery –
so will this one.
• The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:
when do we know the recession is over and
recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely.
• This report summarises the AIB-Amárach
Recovery Indicator results from April 2009
(when it began) to August 2011.
• The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 8th-15th August 2011 inclusive.
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs
4
A Matter of Measurement• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
5
A Matter of Measurement
July‘11 47% Aug‘11 52%
July’11 28% Aug’11 29%
July’11 22% Aug’11 18%
July’11 3% Aug’11 1%
July’11 0% Aug’11 0%
• August 2011 saw a negative turn in Irish views about the current stage
of the country’s economic cycle:
6
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100
(0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• In August 2011, the Recovery Indicator fell back to 17.3 – returning to the level at the start of the year.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr '09
Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '10
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '11
May June July Aug
AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator
7
34%41%44% 42%43%46%48%
41%43%52%
41% 42%43% 42%42%
42%39%
31%26%18%
23%26%24%25%24%28%23%26%24%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly
57% 59%65%
58% 60% 62%55%
51%
51%61%
55%54%52% 53%
54%55%
50% 46% 44% 33%41%
48%44%48%47%53%
47%48%48%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly
Recovery Outlook 1
8
48% 48%51% 47%48%48%46%45%45%50%
47% 43%47%45%
45%47%
46%41%41%
32%34%39%37%36%39%40%34%39%34%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly
Recovery Outlook 2
59%
62% 61%60%61%60% 56%
52%
56%55%53% 55%
53%51%50%
55%
54%
53%
52% 45%45%49%45%47%48%50%44%49%46%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r'10
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
9
43% 43%42%46%
35%40% 39%
30% 35% 36%33% 28% 27%
14%18%
25%
20%
21% 17%25% 20% 16%11%
Oct '0
9
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly
Recovery Outlook 3
22%
22% 21% 22% 21% 18% 23%
20%
20% 21%21% 18%
20%13%
15%
18%
17%
17%
17%21% 17% 19%16%
Oct '0
9
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r'10
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly
10
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: August 2009*, 2010, 2011 & July 2011
16% 19% 17% 14%
Aug'09 Aug'10 Jul'11 Aug'11
I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago
62% 62% 58%
Aug'10 Jul'11 Aug'11
Now is a good time to buy a house for those
who want to
33%26% 26% 25%
Aug'09 Aug'10 Jul'11 Aug'11
I am saving a lot more than before because of
the recession
31% 26% 23%
Aug'10 Jul'11 Aug'11
I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I
need to 62% 59% 57%
Aug'10 Jul'11 Aug'11
Paying off debts is my main financial priority
Impact on:
•Spending
•Saving
•Debt
•Borrowing
Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
* NB: debt & borrowing questions not asked in 2009
11
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to August 2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr
'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'10
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'11
May
June
July
Aug
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
12
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to August 2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Ap
r '0
9
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
0
Ma
y
June
July
Aug
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
1
Ma
y
June
July
Aug
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
13
Cloudy Outlook
• The downturn in our Recovery Indicator in August
is driven by a number of factors – not least the
uncertainty arising from this month’s international
economic and political events.
• Irish consumers continue to be emotionally
resilient, but economically thrifty.
• They continue to be more negative (and volatile)
about the wider economy than their own personal
situation.
• The outlook for consumer spending is therefore
finely balanced between more negative macro
and more positive micro influences.
• Stay tuned to future issues of the AIB-Amárach
Recovery Indicator to find out what happens...
14
Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill
Chairman
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
telephone: (01) 410 5200
email: [email protected]
website: www.amarach.com
blog: www.amarach.com/blog
twitter: www.twitter.com/amarachresearch
