The Hype Cycle

AND THE

DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION

Diffusion of Innovation

Seeks to explain how innovations are taken up in a population.

Innovation: an idea, behavior, or object perceived as new by its audience.

Everett Rogers (1963) Diffusions of Innovations

Why do some innovations spread? And others fail?

Five Qualities of Innovation

Relative Advantage

Compatibility with Existing Values and Practices

Simplicity and Ease of Use

Trialability

Observable Results

49-87% of Adoption Variation

INNOVATORS

2.5% OF POPULATIONInnovative/Creative/Focused

EARLY ADOPTERS

13.5% OF POPULATIONStrategic/Independent/Visionary

EARLY MAJORITY

34% OF POPULATIONPragmatic/Mainstream/Uncommitted

LATE MAJORITY

34% OF POPULATIONConservative/Risk Averse/Fearful

LAGGARDS

16% OF POPULATIONArgumentative/Critical/Controlling

Roles in Innovation

Innovators = Creators

Early Adopters = First Followers

Early Majority = Attracted to Simplicity

Late Majority = Fear of Being Left Behind

Laggards = Security of Others

Hype Cycle

2010 Emerging Tech Hype Cycle

User Experience and Interaction

Augmented Reality

Data-Driven Decisions

Cloud Computing

2011 Emerging Tech Hype Cycle

Social Analytics/ Activity Streams

Private Cloud Computing

Mobile TechnologiesPaymentsQR Codes

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