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Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis
July 18, 2016
H E A D I N G I N T O T H E R E P U B L I C A N C O N V E N T I O N
F O L L OW ING P R I M ARY B AT T LES , R E P UB LI CANS S AY PA R TY I S D I V I D ED
Would you describe the Republican Party today as
united or divided?
United16%
Divided81%
Don’t know/No answer
3%
Source: CBS News/ NY Times Poll July 8-12, 2016PAGE 3
M O S T R E P UBL ICA NS W O U L D H AV E P R E F ERRE D S O M EO NE O T H E R T H A N T R U MP A S T H E N O M I NEE
Trump40%
Other54%
No opinion6%
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll July-11-14, 2016
Trump48%Somone
else 51%
Don't know1%
Out of the candidates who ran, who did you want to see win the Republican nomination for president this year?
Who would you rather have as the Republican Party’s presidential nominee?
Source: Fox News June 26-28, 2016PAGE 4
H A L F O F R E P U BLI CANS B E L I EVE G O P W I L L N O T S O L I DLY U N I T E B E H I ND T R U MP
54% 38%
Have disagreements that keep many from supporting him Unite solidly behind him
Among Republican primary preference
% of Republican/Rep-leaning registered voters who say if Trump is the party’s nominee, the party will…
28%
52%
Other
Trump
Source: Pew Research Center Poll June 15-26, 2016
About a quarter of Republicans who supported other GOP
candidates say party will united behind Trump
PAGE 5
Y E T, M O R E S T R ONG S U P PORT B E H I ND T R UM P T H AN R O M NEY O R M C C A IN
46%
71%
34% 38%45%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
% who say they support their candidate choice ‘strongly’
Source: Pew Research Center Survey 6/15-6/26
PAGE 6
M A J O RI TY O F R E P U B LIC AN V O T E RS S AY T R U MP R E P R ESEN TS PA R T Y’S C O R E VA L UE S
Overall, do you think Donald Trump represents the core principles and values that the Republican Party SHOULD stand for, or doesn’t he?
Source: CBS News/ NY Times Poll July 8-12, 2016
Total GOP voters
Trumpvoters
Non-Trump Voters
Yes 61% 88% 40%
No 35% 11% 50%
PAGE 7
Republican Primary Voters
L O O K I N G A T T H E C A N D I D A T E S
M O R E T H A N H A L F O F A M E R I CANS H AV E A N U N FAVO RABL E V I E W O F C L I N TON A N D T R U MP
55% 54% 57% 60%55% 57% 55% 52% 54%
59%54% 52%
58%66% 64% 60% 57% 59%
62% 64% 63% 58% 64%59%
Clinton Trump
Source: Huffington Post Pollster. Polls fielded from 6/9-7/16PAGE 9
Unfavorable
AT T R IB UTES U S E D T O D E S C RI BE C L I N TON A N D T R U M P
77%
30%
45%54% 58% 60%
82%
45%35%34% 34% 35% 35%
45%
63% 66%
83%89%
Experienced Honest and trustworthy
Cares about people like me
Sensible Corrupt Patriotic Intelligent Obnoxious Hot-headed
Clinton: Yes, it does Trump: Yes, it does
For each of the following words and phrases, please tell me if you think it describes [Trump/Clinton].
Source: Fox News June 26-28, 2016PAGE 10
M O S T A M E RI CANS D O N O T T H I N K T R U MP I S Q U A L IFI ED T O S E R V E A S P R E S IDE NT
Qualified59%
Qualified37%
Not Qualified39%
Not Qualified60%
Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Regardless of whether or not you’d vote for [him/her], do you think [Trump or Clinton] is or is not qualified to serve as president?
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll July 11-14, 2016
PAGE 11
A M E R IC ANS WA N T A P R E S I DENT W H O C A N TA K E T H E N AT ION I N A N E W D I R E CT ION
56%
38%
New Direction
Same Direction
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll June 20-23, 2016
Thinking about the election in November, which of these two statements comes closest to your own views: (After eight years if Barack Obama, we need to elect a president who can set the nation in a new direction) OR (We need to keep the country moving in the direction Obama has been taking us)?
PAGE 12
A N X I E TY I S H I G H A B O U T B O T H C A N DID ATES , E S P E CIA LLY T R UMP
No opinion
3%
Clinton
Anxious50%
Comfortable47%
No opinion
3%
Trump
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll June 20-23, 2016
Thinking about ____ as president – are you comfortable with this, or does it make you anxious?
Anxious70%
Comfortable 27%
PAGE 13
L O O K I N G A H E A D T O T H E G E N E R A L E L E C T I O N
G R E ATER E L E CTI ON I N T E RE ST T H A N D U R I NG P R E V IOUS C A M PAIG NS; M O R E S AY ‘ I T R E A L LY M AT TER S W H O W I N S’
63%
50%46%
58%
72%67%
80%
29%
41% 43%36%
23%30%
15%
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Quite a lot
Only a little
Thought about election…
Source: Pew Research Center Poll June 15-26, 2016
56%
67%63% 63%
74%
44%
29% 32% 34%
22%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
It really matters who wins election
Things will be pretty much the same no matter who wins
Among registered voters Among registered voters
When it comes to making progress on important issues facing the country…
PAGE 15
T R U M P T R A IL S N AT IO NALLY; O N E I N T E N M AY C H A NG E V O T E
Clinton voters
Trumpvoters
Yes, mind made up 88% 90%No, might change before election
11% 10%
(Among registered voters)
Source: Huffington Post Pollster Average Updated 7/18/16 Source: CBS News/ NY Times Poll 7/8-7/12
Is your mind made up?
PAGE 16
Clinton 43.4%
Trump 39.8%
S E L E CT S TATE P O L LI NG AV E R AGE S
OR
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NH
AZ
FL
VAOH
PAIA
WI
CONV
(7/5-7/12)Clinton: 44.6%Trump: 36.6%
(6/22-7/15)Clinton: 42.3%Trump: 39.3%
(6/21-7/10)Clinton: 44.3%Trump: 38.7%
(6/22-7/11)Clinton: 45.5%Trump: 42.3%
Clinton: 43.8%Trump: 39.0%
(6/13-7/12)
Clinton: 44.0%Trump: 43.4%
(6/25-7/11)
(6/22-7/15)Clinton: 43.4%Trump: 41.6%
Trump: 44.0%Clinton: 43.5%
(5/24-7/10)
Clinton: 43.5%Trump: 43.0%
(6/20-6/23)
NC Clinton: 43.3%Trump: 42.0%
(6/20-7/11)
Source: RealClearPolitics
PAGE 17
W H A T ’ S N E X T
PAGE 19
K E Y U P C O MI NG D AT ES I N 2 0 1 6 E L E C TI ON C Y C L E
Event DateGOP National Convention July 18-21
Democratic National Convention July 25-28First Presidential Debate September 26Vice Presidential Debate October 4
Second Presidential Debate October 9Third Presidential Debate October 16
Election Day November 8
Countdown to Election Day (from July 18): 112 days
M A J O RI TY O F V O T E R S N O T L O O KI NG F O R WARD T O R E M A I NDER O F C A M PAIG N
Are you looking forward to the next few months of the presidential campaign, or not?
Source: CBS News/ NY Times Poll July 8-12, 2016
No61%
Yes37%
PAGE 20
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