JORDAN POST-ELECTION PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY April 10 Survey of... · jordan post-election public opinion survey march 4-7, 2013 middle east marketing and research consultants (memrc)

JORDAN POST-ELECTION PUBLIC

OPINION SURVEY March 4-7, 2013

MIDDLE EAST MARKETING AND

RESEARCH CONSULTANTS (MEMRC)

http://www.iri.org/

MEMRC

2

Methodology

• This survey was designed, coordinated and analyzed by the Middle East Marketing and

Research Consultants on behalf of the International Republican Institute.

• The national representative survey was carried out from March 4-7, 2013. The eligibility criteria was based on age (18 years of age or older). A sample of 1,000 individuals were interviewed face-to-face in their homes.

• The sample design was a multi-stage cluster sample:

– Stage One: Break country into 100 clusters distributed among Jordan’s 12 governorates based on the 2004 Housing and Population Census for the selection of 100 clusters across the Kingdom.

– Stage Two: Select 10 households from each cluster in a random fashion based on settlement population while ensuring representation of different parts of the cluster in the sample. The Nyman allocation approach was used to distribute the sample of clusters among governorates.

• Ten households were drawn (with replacement allowing for non-contacts) from each cluster using a random start and a systematic procedure of selection to ensure representation of different parts of the cluster in sample and to reduce intra-class correlation.

• Researchers conducted one in-person interview per household, selected using the Kish method.

• The response rate for the survey was 98 percent.

• The margin of error for the survey does not exceed + 2.5 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.

• Figures in charts and tables may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.

Jordan National Poll

March 2013

MEMRC

3

Region Governorates

North Irbid

Jerash

Ajloun

Mafraq

Center Amman

Zarqa

Balqa

Madaba

South Karak

Tafileh

Ma’an

Aqaba


March 2013

http://www.iri.org/

MEMRC

4

Survey Demographics

Gender

Male 50%

Female 50%

Geographic Location

North 28%

Center 64%

South 8%

Urban 80%

Rural 20%

Age Groups

18-24 16%

25-34 26%

35-44 23%

45+ 35%

Education

Less than secondary 38%

Secondary 34%

Higher than secondary 28%

Employment Status

Working 42%

Not working 58%

Household Total Monthly Income

Less than 250 JOD 22%

250 – 499 JOD 51%

500 – 999 JOD 19%

1000 + JOD 5%

Not sure 1%

Refused to answer 2%


March 2013

MEMRC

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General State of Affairs


March 2013

MEMRC

6

48%

71%

57% 58%

65%

43%

58% 60%

43%

32%

44%

24%

34% 35%

28%

49%

29% 26%

45%

59%

0%

40%

80%

JUL 05 DEC 05 MAY 06 MAR 07 AUG 07 AUG 08 AUG 09 JUN 11 JUL 12 MAR 13

Right direction Wrong direction

In general, are things in Jordan going in the right direction or the wrong direction?


March 2013

MEMRC

7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

High prices Corruption Poor economic

conditions

Syrian refugees Unemployment No reform

12%

30%

25%

18%

24% 26%

7%

44%

18%

10%

4% 4% 4%

JUN 2011 (n=256) JUL 2012 (n=445) MAR 2013 (n=586)

Why do you think Jordan is going in the wrong

direction? (Open-ended)


March 2013

**n refers to respondents who believe the country is going in the wrong direction**

MEMRC

8

0%

20%

40%

60%

Stability & Security Political & Economic

reform

Hashemite leadership Improving economy Fighting corruption

57%

17%

10%

3%

46%

7% 6%

20%

50%

17%

8% 6% 5%

JUN 2011 (n=595) JUL 2012 (n=427) MAR 2013 (n=315)

What is the main reason for considering Jordan is going in the right direction? (Open-ended)


March 2013

**n refers to respondents who believe the country is going in the right direction**

MEMRC

9

Independent Electoral Commission

and Parliament


March 2013

MEMRC

10

To what degree do you believe that the Independent Election Commission, instead of the Ministry of Interior, was able to ensure having fair and transparent elections?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Large degree Moderate

degree

Little degree Not at all Do not know I have not

heard of the

IEC

20%

35%

13%

22%

11%

1%


March 2013

MEMRC

11

To what degree were you satisfied with the voter registration process of the latest parliamentary elections?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%


degree

Little degree Not at all Do not know Refused to

answer

34% 34%

10% 12%

10%

1%


March 2013

MEMRC

12

To what degree were you satisfied with the voting process of the latest parliamentary elections?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%


degree


answer

33% 33%

11% 12% 11%

1%


March 2013

MEMRC

13

To what degree were you satisfied with the vote counting process of the latest parliamentary elections?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%


degree


answer

21%

30%

13%

19% 17%

1%


March 2013

MEMRC

14

To what degree were you satisfied with the result announcement process of the latest parliamentary elections?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%


degree


answer

19%

29%

14%

24%

14%

1%


March 2013

MEMRC

15

In your opinion what are the top three issues the new parliament should start to tackle? (Open-ended)

0%

10%

20%

30%

Curb prices Fight

corruption

Fight

unemployment

Improve

economic

conditions

Fight poverty Increase wages Lower fuel

prices

25%

17% 17%

8%

5% 5% 3%


March 2013

MEMRC

16

Is there one parliamentarian or more who you believe will represent your opinion, concerns or needs in the newly elected parliament?

Yes

31%

No

60%

Do not

know

9%


March 2013

MEMRC

17

To what degree do you believe vote buying was widespread in the recent parliamentary elections?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%


degree

Little degree Not at all Do not know

27% 25%

14%

20%

13%


March 2013

MEMRC

18

To what extent do you think vote buying influenced the election’s outcome?

0%

20%

40%


degree

Little degree Not at all Vote buying

was not

widespread

Do not know

32%

21%

9%

3%

20%

14%


March 2013

MEMRC

19

Will you follow the work of the newly elected parliament? If yes, through what means?

Yes

43%

No

53%

Do not

know

5%

n=425

36%

37%

43%

46%

47%

97%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Radio

Internet

Newspapers

Friends

Family

Television


March 2013

MEMRC

20

For how long do you think the newly elected parliament will stay in office?

12%

14%

25%

19%

10%

20%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Do not know

Less than 6 months

6 - 12 months

1 to 2 years

2 to 3 years

Full 4 years


March 2013

MEMRC

21

Was your name registered in the voter registry for the recent parliamentary elections?

Yes

73%

No

27%


March 2013

MEMRC

22

Did you vote in the recent parliamentary elections that were held on January 23, 2013? What was the main reason for you not to participate?

21%

4%

5%

5%

8%

11%

20%

26%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Other

Refused to answer

Not convinced in elections

Illness

Elections not fair

No worthwhile candidates

No trust in parliament

Personal reasons


March 2013

Yes

52% No

21%

Not

Registered

27%

**n refers to respondents who were registered but did not vote**

n=206

MEMRC

23

Did you write down the name of your chosen local district candidate on the ballot or did you mark “” next to the name of the candidate you chose? (n=516)

Wrote

down

name

32%

Marked

""

68%

Left a

blank

ballot

1%


March 2013

**n refers to respondents who report having voted**

MEMRC

24

To what degree do you believe you were well enough informed about the voting procedures on Election Day? (n=516)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


degree


51%

35%

10%

4% 1%


March 2013

**n refers to respondents report having voted**

MEMRC

25

To what degree did you believe you were well enough informed to make an informed choice when voting for a candidate in your local district where you were registered on Election Day? (n=516)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


degree


51%

35%

10%

3% 1%


March 2013


MEMRC

26

To what degree do you believe you were well enough informed to make an informed choice when voting for a national list on Election Day? (n=516)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%


degree

Little degree Not at all Do not know Did not vote

for a list

34% 34%

15%

11%

1%

6%


March 2013


MEMRC

27

When did you decide to give your vote to district candidate? (n=516)

1%

2%

7%

11%

16%

20%

43%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Left a blank ballot

Do not remember

A day before Election Day

Election Day

During the last four weeks

before Election Day

During the last seven days

before Election Day

More than a month before

Election Day


March 2013


MEMRC

28

What was the main reason that made you give your vote to that district candidate? (n=510)

3%

3%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

9%

17%

17%

25%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Do not know

Other

Tested former member of parliament

Suitable person

National duty

Election program

Efficiency

Personal acquaintance

Trust in candidate

For services the candidate renders

Honesty/Integrity

Tribal/Relation/From same area as me


March 2013


MEMRC

29

When did you decide to give your vote to a national list? (n=516)

13%

2%

10%

12%

20%

21%

23%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Left a blank paper

Do not remember

A day before Election Day

During the last four weeks

before Election Day

During the last seven days

before Election Day

Election Day

More than a month before

Election Day


March 2013


MEMRC

30

What was the main reason that made you give your vote to that national list? (n=451)

2%

13%

6%

2%

2%

3%

5%

7%

8%

8%

9%

9%

10%

16%

0% 10% 20%

Refused to answer

Do not know

Other

Husband asked me

Promises to improve conditions

Random choice

Islamists

Helps people

Two votes

Convinced with list

Good reputation

Personal acquaintance

Election program

Tribal/Relation/From the same area as me


March 2013

**n refers to respondents who report having voted for a national list**

MEMRC

31

Were you offered any amount of money in order for you to give your vote to a local district candidate? (n=516) Was the offer made by one or more district candidates? And were you offered anything in kind (such as heaters, blankets, etc..) in order for you to give your vote to a local district candidate? (n=516)

Yes

7%

No

93%

Money offered by district candidate

37%

63%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

By one candidate

By more than one

Money offered

3%

97%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Yes

No

Goods offered by district candidate

n=38


March 2013


MEMRC

32

Were you offered any amount of money in order for you to give your vote to a national list? (n=516) And were you offered anything in kind (such as heaters, blankets etc..)? (n=516)

Yes

1%

No

99%

Money offered by national list


March 2013

No

99%

Yes

1%

Goods offered by a national list


MEMRC

33

4%

7%

7%

7%

8%

27%

96%

93%

92%

91%

91%

73%

1%

1%

1%

1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Difficulties in finding the polling station

inside the polling center

Your name was registered in a different center

from the one you went to

Difficulties in reaching the polling center

Unqualified Independent Electoral

Commision staff

Pressure by some candidate(s) or their

representative(s) to vote for them

Crowds and long lines

Yes No Do not remember

On Election Day, did you encounter any of the following situations? (n=516)


March 2013


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MIDDLE EAST MARKETING AND

RESEARCH CONSULTANTS (MEMRC)

http://www.iri.org/

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JORDAN POST-ELECTION PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY April 10 Survey of... · jordan post-election public opinion survey march 4-7, 2013 middle east marketing and research consultants (memrc)