24 December Daily technical trader

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Daily Technical Trader Qatar

Wednesday, 24 December 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

GISS 90.10 82.10

GWCS 51.50 50.00

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 12,183.52 -1.9 20.7

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,430 12,800 13,000

Support 12,200 11,430 11,230

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: Traders started to book some profits yesterday and as a result the Index dropped by 1.9%. The Index reached a strong resistance around the lower part of the medium-term downtrend channel, denoted with the solid red lines. It also reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the most recent drop. Indicators are showing more weakness for the Index. Expected Target Level: 12,430 12,800 Although it is becoming harder to reach, it is important to break above the 12,430 to reach the 12,800. We keep the recommendation to sell the bounces for the short-term. Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 12,200

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 23 Dec 14 22 Dec 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 707.8 1,004.5 -29.5

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 665.2 677.8 -1.9

Volume (mn) 16.3 24.7 -34.0

Number of Trans. 7,778 10,931 -28.8

Companies Traded 40 43 -7.0

Market Breadth 9:29 32:9

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 18,171.60 -1.9 45.4

All Share Index 3,097.13 -1.8 45.0

Banks 3,189.53 -2.4 48.0

Industrials 3,935.08 -1.7 42.7

Transportation 2,233.98 0.3 47.6

Real Estate 2,223.63 -2.2 39.5

Insurance 3,786.09 -1.2 53.3

Telecoms 1,420.80 -0.7 49.3

Consumer 6,775.65 0.0 45.8

Al Rayan Islamic 4,043.33 -1.4 44.8

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IHGS 108.90 -10.0 19.7

AHCS 11.15 -1.8 25.0

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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GISS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 90.10 -6.24 847,190

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 91.50 99.00 106.50

Support 82.00 80.00 75.00

Commentary

Overview: GISS may face further weakness. The name dropped more than 6% in the last session, reversing the sharp rise it witnessed over the past few sessions. Indicators are supporting the weakness argument. The short-term trend is still down; all moving averages are above the current price. On the daily chart, the MACD extended below the zero line and the RSI is around the neutral zone. That suggests bears are still controlling the scene. On the intraday chart, the MACD is losing its momentum (seen through its Histogram turn downward) and the RSI is falling from the overbought area. Although it is not a rule, but there is a price gap which extends from QR89.00 to QR79.50. This gap could be easily filled because of the expected consolidation. Expected Price Retreat: QR82.10 QR79.50 The sell trigger will be in effect if QR89.00 is breached downward.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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GWCS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 51.50 -2.83 139,825

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 52.50 53.00 56.50

Support 50.00 49.30 48.00

Commentary

Overview: GWCS was not able to push through the strong resistance around the QR53.00 price level. Previous tops, bundled SMAs, and previous bottoms increased the selling pressure around that level. In addition, oscillators are confirming further weakness as the daily chart shows the RSI and the MACD are both pointing down. On the hourly chart, we see that MACD is becoming weaker while still under the zero line and the RSI is at the neutral area. Hence we expect the weakness to continue further. Expected Price Retreat: QR50.00 QR49.40 A break below the QR51.00 price may indicate further weakness and wait for stability around the target price for further recommendations.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 12,183.52 12,021.58 12,113.38 12,170.10 12,261.90 12,353.70 12,410.42 12,502.22 13,089.51 13,380.03 12,937.06

Total Return 18,171.60 17,930.08 18,067.00 18,151.59 18,288.51 18,425.43 18,510.02 18,646.94 19,522.88 19,956.19 19,273.25

All Share 3,097.13 3,060.32 3,080.93 3,093.66 3,114.27 3,134.88 3,147.61 3,168.22 3,322.41 3,388.29 3,284.30

Al Rayan Islamic 4,043.33 3,970.26 4,005.53 4,027.32 4,062.59 4,097.86 4,119.65 4,154.92 4,394.29 4,526.96 4,297.99

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 46.50 45.07 45.70 46.09 46.72 47.35 47.74 48.37 48.89 52.22 50.38

CBQK 66.40 64.87 65.40 65.73 66.27 66.80 67.13 67.67 71.33 70.83 68.65

DHBK 56.60 55.33 55.75 56.01 56.43 56.85 57.11 57.53 57.64 58.81 59.89

QIBK 102.90 100.30 101.06 101.54 102.30 103.06 103.54 104.30 106.26 110.55 99.40

QIIK 81.70 78.50 79.57 80.23 81.30 82.37 83.03 84.10 83.66 85.94 83.70

Insurance

QATI 88.20 84.07 85.59 86.54 88.07 89.59 90.54 92.07 92.62 94.69 85.09

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 119.00 108.07 112.31 114.93 119.17 123.41 126.03 130.27 123.13 125.29 103.27

Industrials

IQCD 173.00 169.67 170.81 171.52 172.67 173.81 174.52 175.67 186.58 186.44 184.15

QEWS 187.00 184.93 185.70 186.17 186.93 187.70 188.17 188.93 186.38 186.93 184.63

GISS 90.10 85.03 87.90 89.67 92.53 95.40 97.17 100.03 109.82 115.45 103.38

QIGD 40.40 37.40 38.64 39.41 40.65 41.89 42.66 43.90 45.91 51.98 55.81

Real Estate

BRES 41.70 39.57 40.79 41.54 42.77 43.99 44.74 45.97 44.65 42.83 40.67

UDCD 23.26 22.15 22.57 22.83 23.25 23.67 23.93 24.35 25.87 27.61 25.82

ERES 14.82 14.53 14.68 14.77 14.91 15.06 15.15 15.29 17.90 18.84 21.39

MRDS 17.70 17.13 17.39 17.55 17.80 18.06 18.22 18.47 21.88 22.67 20.25

Telecommunication

ORDS 119.00 115.13 116.32 117.05 118.23 119.42 120.15 121.33 120.00 124.88 133.37

VFQS 15.50 14.95 15.19 15.34 15.59 15.83 15.98 16.23 18.43 19.72 18.31

Transportation

QGTS 22.67 21.78 22.04 22.20 22.46 22.72 22.88 23.14 23.46 24.00 23.30

QNNS 95.00 91.73 92.73 93.34 94.33 95.33 95.94 96.93 97.66 96.28 95.35 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presenta