Ipsos-Mori Political Monitor June 2017 · PDF fileBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders ... Political

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1

POLITICALMONITORJUNE 2017

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2

VOTING

INTENTIONS

3Political Monitor | June 2017 | Final | Public

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,046 British adults 18+, 30th May – 1st June 2017 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends

vote in General Elections with overclaim adjustment = 883. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most

accurate results in the 2015 GE. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4%

Voting Intention

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -3

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +5

45%

40%

2%

2%

7%

4%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

40%

43%

3%

1%

9%

4%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May 1

5

Jun

15

Jul 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Jun

16

Jul 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 17

May 1

7

Jun

17

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)



Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election

2015 General Election

5 point lead

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Dec

03

Jun

04

Dec

04

Jun

05

Dec

05

Jun

06

Dec

06

Jun

07

Dec

07

Jun

08

Dec

08

Jun

09

Dec

09

Jun

10

Dec

10

Jun

11

Dec

11

Jun

12

Dec

12

Jun

13

Dec

13

Jun

14

Dec

14

Jun

15

Dec

15

Jun

16

Dec

16

Jun

17

2015 General Election

Miliband

elected

(Sept 10)

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)



Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: December ‘03 – June ‘17

2005 General Election 2010 General Election

Cameron

elected

(Dec 05)

Brown

as PM

(June 07)

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


18%

55%

27%

Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Paul Nuttall Tim Farron The Government

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF UKIP /LEADER OF THE LIBERAL

DEMOCRATS ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,046 British adults 18+, 30th May – 1st June 2017. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

38%

53%

8%

43%

50%

7%

39%

50%

11%

-13.5%swing from May 2017

+8%swing from May 2017

0%swing from May

2017

-4%swing from May

2017

-5.5%swing from May 2017

-7 Net -11 Net -37 Net -19 Net -15 NetSATISFIED 43% SATISFIED 39% SATISFIED 18% SATISFIED 25% SATISFIED 38%

DISSATISFIED 50% DISSATISFIED 50% DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 44% DISSATISFIED 53%

25%

44%

30%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month. In February 2015 and 2016 data for Paul Nuttall and Tim Farron was not collected

Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – June 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

l 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 17

May 1

7

Ju

n 1

7

MAY CORBYN FARRON NUTTALL

43%39%

25%

18%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

May

Number of months after becoming Prime Minister


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …

PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2017)

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Hague (97-01) Ducan Smith (01-03) Howard (03-05) Cameron (05-10)

Blair (94-97) Miliband (10-15) Corbyn (15-present) Kinnock (83-92)

Foot (80-83) Smith (92-94)

Number of months after becoming Opposition Leader

Net

sati

sfact

ion

Corbyn


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,046 British adults 18+, 30th May – 1st June 2017

Theresa May (satisfaction)

43%

50%

7%

June 2017 August 2016 – June 2017

SATISFIED 43%

DISSATISFIED 50%

DON’T KNOW 7%

Net = -7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 267 Conservative supporters 18+ , 30th May – 1st June 2017

Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters)

82%

14%4%

June 2017

SATISFIED 82%

DISSATISFIED 14%

DON’T KNOW 4%

Net = +68

August 2016 – June 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


39%

50%

11%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

SATISFIED 39%

DISSATISFIED 50%

DON’T KNOW 11%

Net = -11

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?


Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

June 2017 September 2015 – June 2017

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


71%

19%

10%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

SATISFIED 71%

DISSATISFIED 19%

DON’T KNOW 10%

Net = +52

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 286 Labour supporters 18+, 30thMay – 1st June 2017

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


25%

44%

30%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

SATISFIED 25%

DISSATISFIED 44%

DON’T KNOW 30%

Net = -19

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


Tim Farron (satisfaction)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PAUL NUTTALL IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

UKIP, THE UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY?


Paul Nuttall (satisfaction)

December 2016 – June 2017June 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

18%

55%

27% SATISFIED 18%

DISSATISFIED 55%

DON’T KNOW 27%

Net = -37


VOTING DECISIONS


HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR THE ………. PARTY OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY

CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: All giving a General Election Voting intention 940 British adults 18+, 30th May – 1st June 2017

The majority of voters have made up their mind

81%

73%

64%

71%

65%

57%

50%

60%

63%

67%

78%

17%

25%

32%

25%

32%

41%

49%

38%

36%

32%

20%

May-83

May 87

Mar-92

April 97

May 01

Apr-05

Apr-10

Apr-15

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Definitely decided May change mind Don’t know





Labour support hardens

60

44

48

43

42

21

21

22

23

36

32

20

40

51

46

56

57

76

78

77

75

63

67

78

Liberal Democrat supporters April 2017

Liberal Democrat supporters May 2017

Liberal Democrat supporters June 2017

Labour supporters April 2017

Labour supporters May 2017

Labour supporters June 2017

Conservative supporters April 2017

Conservative supporters May 2017

Conservative supporters June 2017

Overall April 2017

Overall May 2017

Overall June 2017

May change mind Definitely decided





Lib Dem vote softer than Conservatives and Labour

48

21

23

20

46

76

75

78

% May change mind

Overall May 2017

Conservative supporters

Labour supporters

Liberal Democrat supporters

% Definitely decided


May 2015 May 2017 June 2017

IF YOU DO CHANGE YOUR MIND ABOUT VOTING FOR THIS PARTY, WHICH PARTY WOULD YOU VOTE FOR

INSTEAD?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: All registered who may change their mind (187), 5th-6th May 2015,15th-17th May 2017 and 30th May – 1st June 2017

Most popular second choice split between three largest

parties.

24%

12%

7%10%

20%

1%

23%14%

20%

14%10%

17%

3%

22%

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM OTHER

NONE / WOULD

NOT VOTE

DON’T KNOW /

REFUSED

22%

23%

6%6%

20%

4%

5%

14%


52

12

40

21

28

32

31

52

23

61

29

56

35

50

May, May 2017

May, April 2017

Cameron, April 2015

Cameron, April 2010

Howard, May 2005

Corbyn, May 2017

Corbyn, April 2017

Miliband, April 2015

Brown, Aprl 2010

Blair, May 2005

Blair, May 2001

Hague, May 2001

May, June 2017

Corbyn, June 2017

WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE PRIME MINISTER, THE CONSERVATIVE’S

THERESA MAY, OR LABOUR’S JEREMY CORBYN?


Most capable Prime Minister since 2001

Base: 1,046 British adults 18+, 30th May – 1st June 2017


WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE PRIME MINISTER, THE CONSERVATIVE’S

THERESA MAY, OR LABOUR’S JEREMY CORBYN?


Most capable Prime Minister 2017

Base: 1,046 British adults 18+, 30th May – 1st June 2017

61%

56%

50%

23%

29%

35%

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

MAY CORBYN

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

24

POLITICALMONITORJune 2017

Documents

Ipsos-Mori Political Monitor June 2017 · PDF fileBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders ... Political