Upload
ipsos-mori
View
3.917
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
2015POLITICAL MONITOR21.12.2015
2015VOTINGINTENTIONS
Voting IntentionHOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
37%
33%
9%
5%10%
6%
All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention
Conservative lead = +4 Conservative lead = +7
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
38%
31%
9%
6%9%
7%
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12 th – 14th December all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 752. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.
3
2015SATISFACTION WITH THEGOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
5
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM GOVERNMENT
+0.5%swing from November
-7%swing from November
-1.5%swing from November
+3.5%swing from November
+2.5%swing from November
-14 Net -17 Net -15 Net -7 Net -17 NetSATISFIED 41% SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 24% SATISFIED 38%
DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 50% DISSATISFIED 48% DISSATISFIED 31% DISSATISFIED 55%
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
-50
+50
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOBAS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF UKIP?
6
Satisfaction with Party leaders Nov‘8 – Nov‘15
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS
RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Nov-0
8
Feb-0
9
May-0
9
Aug-0
9
Nov-0
9
Feb-1
0
May-1
0
Aug-1
0
Nov-1
0
Feb-1
1
May-1
1
Aug-1
1
Nov-1
1
Feb-1
2
May-1
2
Aug-1
2
Nov-1
2
Feb-1
3
May-1
3
Aug-1
3
Nov-1
3
Feb-1
4
May-1
4
Aug-1
4
Nov-1
4
Feb-1
5
May-1
5
Aug-1
5
Nov-1
50
10
20
30
40
50
60
41%33%
CAMERON CORBYN FARRON FARAGE
33%
24%
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
7
Net satisfaction with Prime MinistersHOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOBAS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
n
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
8
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
41%
55%
4%
December 2015 August 2006 –December 2015
Jun-
06O
ct-0
6M
ay-0
7S
ep-0
7Fe
b-08
Jun-
08O
ct-0
8Fe
b-09
Jun-
09O
ct-0
9Fe
b-10
Jun-
10N
ov-1
0M
ar-1
1Ju
l-11
Nov
-11
Mar
-12
Jul-1
2N
ov-1
2M
ar-1
3Ju
l-13
Nov
-13
Mar
-14
Jul-1
4N
ov-1
4M
ar-1
5Ju
l-15
Dec
-150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 41%
DISSATISFIED 55%
DON’T KNOW 4%
Net = -14
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
9
David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Base: 327 Conservative supporters 18+, 12th – 14th December
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
81%
18%1%
December 2015 July 2006 – December 2015
Jun
06N
ov 0
6Ju
n 07
Oct
07
Mar
08
Jul 0
8N
ov-0
8M
ar-0
9Ju
l-09
Nov
-09
Mar
-10
Jul-1
0Fe
b-11
Jun-
11O
ct-1
1Fe
b-12
Jun-
12O
ct-1
2Fe
b-13
Jun-
13O
ct-1
3Fe
b-14
14-J
unO
ct-1
4Fe
b-15
Jun-
15N
ov-1
50
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 81%
DISSATISFIED 18%
DON’T KNOW 1%
Net = +63
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
10
37%
40%
23%33%
50%
17%
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
November 2015
SATISFIED 33%
DISSATISFIED 50%
DON’T KNOW 17%
Net = -17
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
SATISFIED 37%
DISSATISFIED 40%
DON’T KNOW 23%
Net = -3
December 2015
11
65%18%
18%
56%28%
16%
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction among Labour supporters)ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
December 2015
SATISFIED 56%
DISSATISFIED 28%
DON’T KNOW 16%
Net = +28
Base: 310 Labour supporters 14th – 17th November and 328 Labour supporters12th –14th December 2015
SATISFIED 65%
DISSATISFIED 18%
DON’T KNOW 18%
Net = +47
November 2015
12
18%
32%
50%
24%
31%
45%
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
November 2015 December 2015
SATISFIED 18%
DISSATISFIED 32%
DON’T KNOW 50%
Net = -15
SATISFIED 24%
DISSATISFIED 31%
DON’T KNOW 45%
Net = -7
13
57%30%
13%
48%
30%
22%
Tim Farron (satisfaction among Liberal Democrat supporters)
Base:80 Lib Dem supporters 18+ 14th – 17th November and 79 Lib Dem supporters 18+, 12-14 December 2015N.B. small base size, indicative only.
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
November 2015 (Lib Dem supporters only) December 2015 (Lib Dem supporters only)
SATISFIED 57%
DISSATISFIED 30%
DON’T KNOW 13%
Net = +27
SATISFIED 48%
DISSATISFIED 30%
DON’T KNOW 22%
Net = +18
14
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep
-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep
-14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
Jul-1
5
Oct
-15
Dec
-150
10
20
30
40
50
60
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
33%
48%
19%
December 2015 March 2013 – December 2015
SATISFIED 33%
DISSATISFIED 48%
DON’T KNOW 19%
Net = -15
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
15
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep
-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep
-14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
Jul-1
5
Oct
-15
Dec
-150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Nigel Farage (satisfaction among UKIP supporters)
Base: 61 UKIP supporters 18+, 12th – 14th DecemberN.B. small base size, indicative only.
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
93%
3%3%
December 2015 March 2013 – December 2015
SATISFIED 93%
DISSATISFIED 3%
DON’T KNOW 3%
Net = +90Dissatisfied
Satisfied
2015ECONOMICOPTIMISM
Economic Optimism Index
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
17DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILLIMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
December 2015
Feb-
04A
ug-0
4Fe
b-05
Aug
-05
Mar
-06
Oct
-06
Jun-
07Ja
n-08
Jul-0
8Ja
n-09
Jul-0
9Ja
n-10
Jul-1
0Fe
b-11
Aug
-11
Feb-
12A
ug-1
2Fe
b-13
Aug
-13
Feb-
14A
ug-1
4Fe
b-15
Sep
-150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
IMPROVE 34%STAY THE SAME 28%
GET WORSE 35%
DON’T KNOW 3%
EOI = -1
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
18DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILLIMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Nov
199
7
Jun
1998
Jan
1999
Aug
199
9
Mar
200
0
Oct
200
0
May
200
1
Dec
200
1
Jul 2
002
Feb
2003
Sep
200
3
Apr
200
4
Nov
200
4
Jun
2005
Jan
2006
Aug
200
6
Mar
200
7
Oct
200
7
May
200
8
Dec
200
8
Jul 2
009
Feb
2010
Sep
201
0
Apr
201
1
Nov
201
1
Jun
2012
Jan
2013
Aug
201
3
Mar
201
4
Oct
201
4
May
201
5
Dec
201
5
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
11
-19-21-27-37-46
-31-30-23-15-6-8-1-43
-12
5
-7412
-10-5-13-11-14-16-17-13
-6-6-9-2
-29-22
-4-15
-31
-56
-43
-29-20-21-21
-5
-22-17-27-23-23
-32-40-46-50-39
-18-24-20-22-26-23-25-27
-20-21-18-22-18-25-22-16-27-22-26-23-22-19
-11-15-11-20-14-18-25-35-32-27-23
-28-26-29-32-25-33-31
-23-33-27-29-31
-20-20-21-25-33-37
-46-51-47
-60-57-60-57-64-59-58
-35
-51-48-40-40-29
-2-2
11
-6
16162123
-4
20
671510
-53
-20-21-20-12
-29-37-28
-11-13-23-26-33-32-41-43-48
-35
-22-14-18-23-32-32-27
-9-14-6
-27-22-22-30-19
-105
202315151819
2523253429253224
1219
5121121261614
1-6-9-1-1
2015EUROPE
European referendum
Base: 511 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
20IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015
STAY IN 52%
GET OUT 39%
DON’T KNOW 9%
December 2015
STAY IN 53%
GET OUT 36%
DON’T KNOW 11%
21
Should Britain vote to leave the European Union?Trend since 1977IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?
Dec-
77De
c-78
Dec-
79De
c-80
Dec-
81De
c-82
Dec-
83De
c-84
Dec-
85De
c-86
Dec-
87De
c-88
Dec-
89De
c-90
Dec-
91De
c-92
Dec-
93De
c-94
Dec-
95De
c-96
Dec-
97De
c-98
Dec-
99De
c-00
Dec-
01De
c-02
Dec-
03De
c-04
Dec-
05De
c-06
Dec-
07De
c-08
Dec-
09De
c-10
Dec-
11De
c-12
Dec-
13De
c-14
Dec-
15
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
26%
60% 63%52% 49%
53% 51%
41%
61%
53%
65%
29% 27%36% 35% 32%
39%
49%
27%
36%
Base: 511 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
STAY IN GET OUT
22
EU Referendum question:Should the UK remain a member of the EU?
Base: 529 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015
36%
52%
12%
32%
58%
10%
REMAIN LEAVE DON’T KNOW
EUROPEAN UNION?
December 2015
23
4%
30%
37%
26%
3%5%
32%
36%
24%
3%6%
32%
37%
20%
4%
Confidence in Cameron’s ability to get a good EU deal for BritainPLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT DAVID CAMERON WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN LEADERS?
Source: Ipsos MORI
June 2015
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
October 2015 December 2015
VERY CONFIDENT FAIRLY CONFIDENT NOT VERY CONFIDENT NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT DON’T KNOW
57%
34%
63%
37%
60%
38%
24
1%17%
64%
13%
5%
Will Cameron achieve his goals?DO YOU THINK DAVID CAMERON WILL ACHIEVE ALL, MOST, A FEW, OR NONE OF HIS GOALS IN THE NEGOTIATIONS TO CHANGE BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
ALL MOST A FEW NONE DON’T KNOW
December 2015
25
What will Cameron do after the negotiations?AND AFTER THE NEGOTIATIONS, DO YOU THINK DAVID CAMERON WILL CAMPAIGN FOR BRITAIN TO STAY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION IN THE REFERENDUM OR FOR BRITAIN TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION?
14%
1%
17%
68%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
Will campaign for Britain to stay in
Will campaign for Britain to leave
Will be neutral
Don't know
26
32%
20%5%
14%
27%
1%
Voting rightsDO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE [STATEMENT] IN THE REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION?
Source: Ipsos MORI
Giving 16 and 17 year olds the right to vote
Base: Split-sample: 504/536 British adults 18+, 12 th – 14th December
Reducing the voting age from 18 to 16
STRONGLY SUPPORT TEND TO SUPPORT
NEITHER SUPPORT NOR OPPOSE TEND TO OPPOSE STRONGLY OPPOSE DON’T KNOW
20%
17%
6%18%
38%
1%
56%
37%42%
41%52%
2015SYRIA / TERRORISM
28
DAVID CAMERON JEREMY CORBYN HILARY BENN
-15 Net -26 Net -1 NetSATISFIED 38% SATISFIED 29% SATISFIED 35%DISSATISFIED 53% DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 36%DON’T KNOW 9% DON’T KNOW 15% DON’T KNOW 29%
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY… IS HANDLING THE CRISIS IN SYRIA?
Satisfaction with the way…is handling the Syrian crisis
Are the airstrikes making Britain a safer place?AS YOU MAY KNOW, BRITAIN HAS RECENTLY LAUNCHED AIRSTRIKES AGAINST THE SO-CALLED ISLAMIC STATE IN SYRIA. DO YOU THINK THESE AIRSTRIKES WILL MAKE BRITAIN SAFER OR LESS SAFE FROM TERRORISM, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
9%
44%44%
3%SAFER
LESS SAFE
MAKES NO DIFFERENCE
DON’T KNOW
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
29
2015AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
31
20%
36%18%
9%
6%11% 5%7%
9%
13%
61%
6%
Support for potential US Presidential candidatesAS YOU MAY KNOW, THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS BEING HELD NEXT YEAR. DONALD TRUMP IS CAMPAIGNING TO BE THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE, AND HILLARY CLINTON IS CAMPAIGNING TO BE THE DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE. DO YOU HAVE A FAVOURABLE OR UNFAVOURABLE OPINION OF..
Source: Ipsos MORI
Hillary Clinton
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
Donald Trump
VERY FAVOURABLEFAIRLY FAVOURABLE
NEITHER FAVOURABLE NOR UNFAVOURABLE
FAIRLY UNFAVOURABLE
VERY UNFAVOURABLE DON’T KNOW
74%
12%
42%
15% 56%
2015POLITICAL MONITOR