Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: 26th-29th April 2015

2015POLITICAL MONITOR

VOTINGINTENTIONS

Voting Intention:

All giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote”

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th -29th April 2015, all certain to vote = 791

3HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

34%

30%

9%

9%

9%

9%

All giving a voting intention: 83% All certain to vote: 74%

Conservative lead = +4 Conservative lead = +5

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

35%

30%

10%

8%

8%

9%

3035

10

88

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ap

r 03

Oct

03

Ap

r 04

Oct

04

Ap

r 05

Oct

05

Ap

r 06

Oct

06

Ap

r 07

Oct

07

Ap

r 08

Oct

08

Ap

r 09

Oct

09

Ap

r 10

Oct

10

Ap

r 11

Oct

11

Ap

r 12

Oct

12

Ap

r 13

Oct

13

Ap

r 14

Oct

14

Ap

r 15

Voting Intention: April ‘03 – April ’15

(all certain to vote)

Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through February 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter

4HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?


2005 General Election 2010 General Election

Cameron

elected

(Dec 05)

Brown

as PM

(June 07)

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM

How certain are Labour and Conservative supporters

in their intention to vote? Jan‘08 to April ‘15

5% OF SUPPORTERS “ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN TO VOTE”


CONSERVATIVE LABOUR

83%80%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Dec 0

7

Ap

r 08

Au

g 0

8

Dec 0

8

Ap

r 09

Au

g 0

9

Dec 0

9

Ap

r 10

Au

g 1

0

Dec 1

0

Ap

r 11

Au

g 1

1

Dec 1

1

Ap

r 12

Au

g 1

2

Dec 1

2

Ap

r 13

Au

g 1

3

Dec 1

3

Ap

r 14

Au

g 1

4

Dec 1

4

Ap

r 15

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

SATISFACTION WITH THECOALITION AND PARTY LEADERS

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM GOVERNMENT

+6.0%swing from 12-15 April

n/cswing from 12-15 April




-2 Net -19 Net -25 Net -21 Net -11 NetSATISFIED 46% SATISFIED 35% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 34% SATISFIED 41%

DISSATISFIED 48% DISSATISFIED 54% DISSATISFIED 56% DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 52%

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th – 29th April 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”

7HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER/LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/UKIP?


0

-100

+100

Satisfaction with Party leaders December ‘07 – April ‘15


8HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS

RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?


35%

46%

34%31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Dec 0

7

Ap

r 08

Au

g 0

8

Dec 0

8

Ap

r 09

Au

g 0

9

Dec 0

9

Ap

r 10

Au

g 1

0

Dec 1

0

Ap

r 11

Au

g 1

1

Dec 1

1

Ap

r 12

Au

g 1

2

Dec 1

2

Ap

r 13

Au

g 1

3

Dec 1

3

Ap

r 14

Au

g 1

4

Dec 1

4

Ap

r 15

CAMERON BROWN MILIBAND CLEGG FARAGE

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers


9HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER?


CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Ne

t sa

tisfa

ctio

n

Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

David Cameron (satisfaction)

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th – 29th April 2015

10ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?


46%

48%

7%

April 2015 March 2006 – April 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ma

r-0

6

Jul-

06

Nov-0

6

Jun

-07

Oct-

07

Ma

r-0

8

Jul-

08

No

v-0

8M

ar-

09

Jul-

09

Nov-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Jul-

10

Dec-1

0

Ap

r-11

Au

g-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ap

r-12

Au

g-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ap

r-13

Au

g-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ap

r-14

Au

g-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ap

r-15


SATISFIED 46%

DISSATISFIED 48%

DON’T KNOW 7%

Net = -2

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)

Base: 309 Conservative supporters 18+, 26th -29th April 2015

11ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?


86%

9%5%

April 2015 April 2006 – April 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ap

r 06

Au

g 0

6

Ap

r 07

Au

g 0

7

Jan

08

Ma

y 0

8

Se

p 0

8

Jan

-09

Ma

y-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Jan

-10

Ma

y-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ap

r-11

Au

g-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ap

r-12

Au

g-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ap

r-13

Au

g-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ap

r-14

Au

g-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ap

r 15


SATISFIED 86%

DISSATISFIED 9%

DON’T KNOW 5%

Net = +77

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2015)


12HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?


HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01)

Ne

t sa

tisfa

ctio

n

Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader


Ed Miliband (satisfaction)


13ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY ED MILIBAND IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?


35%

54%

11%

April 2015 October 2010 – April 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

SATISFIED 35%

DISSATISFIED 54%

DON’T KNOW 11%

Net = -19

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters)

Base: 259 Labour supporters 18+, 26th – 29th April 2015

14ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY ED MILIBAND IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?


April 2015 October 2010 – April 2015

71%

21%

7%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

SATISFIED 71%

DISSATISFIED 21%

DON’T KNOW 7%

Net = +50

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Nick Clegg (satisfaction)


15ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NICK CLEGG IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ AS DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER?


34%

55%

11%

April 2015 January 2008 – April 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Dec-0

7M

ar-

08

Jun

-08

Se

p-0

8D

ec-0

8M

ar-

09

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9D

ec-0

9M

ar-

10

Jun

-10

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15


SATISFIED 34%

DISSATISFIED 55%

DON’T KNOW 11%

Net = -21

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)

Base: 84 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 26th – 29th April 2015. N.B. small base size indicative only

16ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NICK CLEGG IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ AS DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER?


73%

25%

2%

April 2015 January 2008 – April 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Dec-0

7M

ar-

08

Jun

-08

Se

p-0

8D

ec-0

8M

ar-

09

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9D

ec-0

9M

ar-

10

Jun

-10

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15


SATISFIED 73%

DISSATISFIED 25%

DON’T KNOW 2%

Net = +48

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

Nov-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-15

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)


17ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?


31%

56%

13%



SATISFIED 31%

DISSATISFIED 56%

DON’T KNOW 13%

Net = -25

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Nigel Farage (satisfaction among UKIP supporters)

Base: 93 UKIP supporters, 26th -29th April 2015. N.B. small base size indicative only

18ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?


91%

3%6%


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

Nov-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-15


SATISFIED 91%

DISSATISFIED 3%

DON’T KNOW 6%

Net = +88

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

VOTINGDECISIONS

Have the voters decided yet?

Base: 900 British adults 18+, 26th -29th April 2015

20HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ LABOUR PARTY/ LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ GREENS/ UKIP/ SNP/PLAID CYMRU OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?


12-15th April 2015 26 –29th April 2015

38%

60%

2%

34%

65%

1%

DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW

Have the voters decided yet? Trend

Base: 900 British adults 18+, 26th -29th April 2015

21HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ LABOUR PARTY/ LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ GREENS/ UKIP/ SNP/PLAID CYMRU OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?


43%47% 48%

56%

65%56%

51% 50%

41%

34%

2% 2% 2% 3%1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Au

g2

01

4

Se

p2

01

4

Oct

201

4

No

v2

01

4

De

c2

01

4

Ja

n2

01

5

Feb

201

5

Ma

r2

01

5

Ap

r2

01

5

DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW

ELECTION OUTCOMES

11%

45%

6%

26%

1%3% 8%

24%

37%

10%

22%

6%

March 2010

Which Election outcome is the most likely?

23AS YOU PROBABLY KNOW, THE GENERAL ELECTION MAY RESULT IN A CLEAR MAJORITY FOR ONE PARTY THAT CAN MAKE DECISIONS WITHOUT CONSULTING, OR IT MAY RESULT IN A HUNG PARLIAMENT WHERE NO PARTY HAS AN OVERALL MAJORITY SO PARTIES MUST COMPROMISE AND REACH AGREEMENT TO MAKE DECISIONS.

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th – 29th April 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY

GOVERNMENT

A HUNG PARLIAMENT WITH THE

CONSERVATIVES AS THE

BIGGEST PARTY

A LABOUR MAJORITY

GOVERNMENT

A HUNG PARLIAMENT WITH

LABOUR AS THE BIGGEST PARTY

A HUNG PARLIAMENT WITH THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS AS THE

BIGGEST PARTY

OTHER

DON’T KNOW

April 2015

THINKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING DO YOU THINK IS MOST LIKELY?

Hung parliament: 59% Hung parliament: 71%

In the event of a hung parliament, what’s the preferred

outcome?

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th -29th April 2015

24IN THE EVENT OF A HUNG PARLIAMENT, WOULD YOU PREFER A MINORITY GOVERNMENT IN WHICH ONE SINGLE PARTY FORMS A GOVERNMENT EVEN THOUGH IT DOESN’T HAVE A MAJORITY, OR WOULD YOU PREFER TO SEE A COALITION IN WHICH TWO OR MORE PARTIES FORM A GOVERNMENT?


60%

33%

5%

MINORITY GOVERNMENT COALITION DON’T KNOW

Preferred coalition partners

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th -29th April 2015

25IF THERE IS A HUNG PARLIAMENT, AND THINKING ABOUT PARTIES OTHER THAN THE CONSERVATIVES AND LABOUR,


WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING PARTIES AND THEIR LEADER, IF ANY, WOULD YOU BE HAPPY/UNHAPPY TO SEE HAVING INFLUENCE OVER THE NEXT GOVERNMENT?

HAPPY UNHAPPY

The Liberal Democrat party and

their leader Nick Clegg

The UK Independence Party and

their leader Nigel Farage

The Scottish National Party and

their leader Nicola Sturgeon

The Green Party and their leader

Natalie Bennett

Plaid Cymru and their leader

Leanne Wood

The Democratic Unionist Party

and their leader Peter Robinson 28%

21%

22%

44%

59%

21%

9%

22%

35%

28%

21%

49%

PARTIES &GOVERNMENT

Britons’ ideal Cabinet

27WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE PRIME MINISTER/CHANCELLOR/FOREIGN SECRETARY/HOME SECRETARY/DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th -29th April 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Prime Minister

Chancellor

Foreign Secretary

Home Secretary

Deputy Prime Minister

David Cameron

Ed Miliband

George Osborne

Ed Balls

Phillip Hammond

Douglas Alexander

Theresa May

Yvette Cooper

Nick Clegg

Harriet Harman 39%

36%

36%

34%

31%

42%

45%

32%

47%

52%

2015POLITICAL MONITOR

News & Politics

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: 26th-29th April 2015