Ipsos MORI Political Monitor March 2018€¦ · Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 –2018)

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

1

Ipsos MORIPOLITICALMONITORMarch

2018

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2

VOTING

INTENTIONS

3Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 2rd March – 7th March 2018; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it

depends vote in General Elections = 782. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4%

Voting Intention

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = 0

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +1

43%

42%

6%

2%

2%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

LIB DEM

UKIP

GREEN

41%

41%

8%

3%

2%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

LIB DEM

UKIP

GREEN




Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election

2015 General Election

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May 1

5

Jun

15

Jul 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Jun

16

Jul 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 17

May 1

7

Jun

17

Jul 17

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

Oct

17

No

v 1

7

Dec

17

Jan

18

Feb

18

Mar

18

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

04

Jun

04

No

v 0

4

Ap

r 05

Sep

05

Feb

06

Jul 06

Dec

06

May 0

7

Oct

07

Mar

08

Au

g 0

8

Jan

09

Jun

09

No

v 0

9

Ap

r 10

Sep

10

Feb

11

Jul 11

Dec

11

May 1

2

Oct

12

Mar

13

Au

g 1

3

Jan

14

Jun

14

No

v 1

4

Ap

r 15

Sep

15

Feb

16

Jul 16

Dec

16

May 1

7

Oct

17

Mar

18

2015 General Election

Miliband

elected

(Sept 10)

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)



Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – March ‘18

2005 General Election 2010 General Election

Cameron

elected

(Dec 05)

Brown

as PM

(June 07)

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?

Theresa May

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,012 British adults 18+ 2rd March – 7th March 2018. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

30%

62%

9%

41%

52%

7%

37%

52%

10%

Jeremy Corbyn The Government

+3%swing from January 2018

-2%swing from January 2018

0%swing from January 2018

+2%swing from January 2018

-11 Net -15 Net -12 Net -32 Net

SATISFIED 41% SATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 25% SATISFIED 30%

DISSATISFIED 52% DISSATISFIED 52% DISSATISFIED 38% DISSATISFIED 62%

25%

37%

38%

Vince Cable


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER

/LEADER OF THE LABOUR/LIB DEM PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month.

Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Mar 2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

l 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 17

May 1

7

Ju

n 1

7

Ju

l 17

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

Oct

17

No

v 1

7

Dec

17

Jan

18

Feb

18

Mar

18

MAY CORBYN CABLE

41%

37%

25%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2018)

MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

May

Number of months after becoming Prime Minister


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …

PARTY?


Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2018)

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Hague (97-01) Duncan Smith (01-03) Howard (03-05) Cameron (05-10)

Blair (94-97) Miliband (10-15) Corbyn (15-present) Kinnock (83-92)

Foot (80-83) Smith (92-94)

Number of months after becoming Opposition Leader

Net

sati

sfact

ion

Corbyn


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,012 British adults 18+ 2rd March – 7th March 2018

Theresa May (satisfaction)

41%

52%

7%

March 2018 August 2016 – March 2018

SATISFIED 41%

DISSATISFIED 52%

DON’T KNOW 7%

Net = -11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar-

18

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 386 Conservative supporters 18+ , 2rd March – 7th March 2018

Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters)

74%

22%

4%

March 2018

SATISFIED 74%

DISSATISFIED 22%

DON’T KNOW 4%

Net = +52

August 2016 – March 2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar-

18

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


37%

52%

10%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5D

ec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6M

ay-1

6Ju

n-1

6Ju

l-16

Au

g-1

6Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6D

ec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7Ju

n-1

7Ju

l-17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7Ja

n-1

8M

ar-

18

SATISFIED 37%

DISSATISFIED 52%

DON’T KNOW 10%

Net = -15

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?


Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

March 2018 September 2015 – March 2018

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


71%

26%

3%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5D

ec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6M

ay-1

6Ju

n-1

6Ju

l-16

Au

g-1

6Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6D

ec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7Ju

n-1

7Ju

l-17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7Ja

n-1

8M

ar-

18

SATISFIED 71%

DISSATISFIED 26%

DON’T KNOW 3%

Net = +45

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 318 Labour supporters 18+ , 2rd March – 7th March 2018

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)

March 2018 September 2015 – March 2018

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


25%

37%

38%SATISFIED 25%

DISSATISFIED 37%

DON’T KNOW 38%

Net = -12

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


Vince Cable (satisfaction)

March 2018

Base: 1,012 British adults 18+ 2rd March – 7th March 2018

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar-

18

September 2017 – March 2018

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


22%

22%54%

3%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan

-07

May-0

7Ju

l-07

Sep

-07

Dec-

07

Feb

-08

Ap

r-08

Jun

-08

Au

g-0

8O

ct-0

8D

ec-

08

Feb

-09

Ap

r-09

Jun

-09

Au

g-0

9O

ct-0

9D

ec-

09

Feb

-10

Ap

r-10

Jun

-10

Sep

-10

No

v-1

0Ja

n-1

1M

ar-

11

May-1

1Ju

l-117

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1Ja

n-1

2M

ar-

12

May-1

2Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2Ja

n-1

3M

ar-

13

May-1

3Ju

l-13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3Ja

n-1

4M

ar-

14

May-1

4Ju

l-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4Ja

n-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb

-16

Ap

rl-1

6Ju

n-1

6A

ug

-16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

IMPROVE 22%

STAY THE SAME 22%

GET WORSE 54%

DON’T KNOW 3%

EOI = -32

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism Index

March 2018


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Consistent levels of economic pessimism since July 2017

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan

1998

Dec

1998

No

v 1

999

Oct

2000

Sep

2001

Au

g 2

002

Jul 2003

Jun

2004

May 2

005

Ap

r 2006

Mar

2007

Feb

2008

Jan

2009

Dec

2009

No

v 2

010

Oct

2011

Sep

2012

Au

g 2

013

Jul 2014

Jun

2015

May 2

016

Ap

r 2017

Mar

2018

-32


Brexit


37%

48%

25%

17%

6%

12%

3%

3%

Conservative Labour Liberal Democrats UKIP

WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON HANDLING BRITAIN’S FUTURE RELATIONSHIP

WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION: THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER

PARTY?


Party with the best policies on handling Brexit

March 2018

April 2017

Conservative lead

+12

+31



41%

52%

41%

25%

17%

23%

4%

6%

4%

<1%

2%

3%


WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON MANAGING THE ECONOMY: THE

CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY?


Party with the best policies on managing the economy

March 2018

April 2017

April 2015

Conservative lead

+16

+35

+18



WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON MANAGING THE ECONOMY, THE

CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY?


Party with the best policies on managing the economy 1990-2018

<1%0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

90

Jul 90

Jan

91

Jul 91

Jan

92

Jul 92

Jan

93

Jul 93

Jan

94

Jul 94

Jan

95

Jul 95

Jan

96

Jul 96

Jan

97

Jul 97

Jan

98

Jul 98

Jan

99

Jul 99

Jan

00

Jul 00

Jan

01

Jul 01

Jan

02

Jul 02

Jan

03

Jul 03

Jan

04

Jul 04

Jan

05

Jul 05

Jan

06

Jul 06

Jan

07

Jul 07

Jan

08

Jul 08

Jan

09

Jul 09

Jan

10

Jul 10

Jan

11

Jul 11

Jan

12

Jul 12

Jan

13

Jul 13

Jan

14

Jul 14

Jan

15

Jul 15

Jan

16

Jul 16

Jan

17

Jul 17

Jan

18

4%

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM

25%

41%

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month


43%

25%

5%

1%


March 2018

WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES FOR BRITAIN’S BUSINESSES THE CONSERVATIVES,

LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY?


Party with the best policies for Britain’s businesses

Conservative lead

+18



DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S

EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION


GOOD JOB BAD JOB

43

32

35

49

51%

50

55

55

40

35%

Theresa May (March 18)

Theresa May (Oct 17)

Theresa May (July 2017)

Theresa May (March 17)

Theresa May (Dec 16)

Theresa May’s handling of Britain’s exit from the


European Union





GOOD JOB BAD JOB

38

31

36

33

37

54

58

52

53

48

The Government (March 18)

The Government (July 17)

The Government (March 17)

The Government (Dec 16)

The Government (Nov 16)

The Government’s handling of Britain’s exit from the


European Union





GOOD JOB BAD JOB

34

31

33

29

56

55

46

39

Boris Johnson (March 2018)

Boris Johnson (Dec 2016)

David Davis (March 2018)

David Davis (Dec 2016)

Boris Johnson and David Davis’ handling of Britain’s


exit from the European Union





GOOD JOB BAD JOB

26

32

29

30

30

50

41

40

45

58

Michael Gove

Liam Fox

Amber Rudd

Philip Hammond

The European Union

Members of the cabinet and the EU’s handling of Britain’s


exit from the European Union


AND IF JEREMY CORBYN WAS PRIME MINISTER, HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, WOULD YOU BE THAT HE

WOULD GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?

Base: 1,071 British adults 18+, 3rd – 8th March 2018

May vs. Corbyn in confidence to get Britain a good deal


6%

31%

28%

31%

4%

Very confident Fairly confident

Not very confident Not confident at all

Don’t know

5%

28%

29%

34%

5%

Very confident Fairly confident

Not very confident Not confident at all

Don’t know

Jeremy Corbyn Theresa May

PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR

BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?

from Brexit negotiations


PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR

BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?


Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain

6

5

6

11

31

35

30

33

4

4

3

5

28

31

31

28

31

29

29

23

March 2018

October 2017

July 2017

March 2017

VERY CONFIDENT FAIRLY CONFIDENT NOT VERY CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL




Confidence in Corbyn to get a good deal

5

6

28

23

5

5

29

29

34

38

March 2018

July 2017

VERY CONFIDENT FAIRLY CONFIDENT NOT VERY CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL


AND IF JEREMY CORBYN WAS PRIME MINISTER, HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, WOULD YOU BE THAT HE

WOULD GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?


AND WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING DO YOU THINK WILL BE THE BEST FOR BRITAIN’S ECONOMY IN THE FIVE

TO TEN YEARS AFTER BRITAIN LEAVES THE EUROPEAN UNION?


36

49

Maintaining free trade with the European

Union, even if that means Britain won’t

be able to negotiate its own trade deals

with countries outside the EU

Britain negotiating its own trade deals

with countries outside the European

Union, even if that means there will be

barriers to trade with the EU

What’s best for Britain's economy after Brexit


Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

32

Ipsos MORIMarch 2018 POLITICAL MONITOR

Documents

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor March 2018€¦ · Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 –2018)