Ipsos MORI January 2017 Political Monitor Charts1,016 British adults 18+, 14th –17th October 2016; 1,132 British adults 18+, +, 13th –17th January 2017 Source: Ipsos MORI Political

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Ipsos MORIJanuary 2017 POLITICAL MONITOR

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2

VOTING

INTENTIONS

3Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public

43%

31%

6%

4%

11%5%

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,132 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th January 2017 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends

vote in General Elections = 843. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015

GE.

Voting Intention

42%

33%

6%

5%

10%4%

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +9

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +12

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jul 03

Jan

04

Jul 04

Jan

05

Jul 05

Jan

06

Jul 06

Jan

07

Jul 07

Jan

08

Jul 08

Jan

09

Jul 09

Jan

10

Jul 10

Jan

11

Jul 11

Jan

12

Jul 12

Jan

13

Jul 13

Jan

14

Jul 14

Jan

15

Jul 15

Jan

16

Jul 16

Jan

17

2015 General Election

Miliband

elected

(Sept 10)

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?


Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: June ‘03 – Dec ‘16

2005 General Election 2010 General Election

Cameron

elected

(Dec 05)

Brown

as PM

(June 07)

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


18%

36%

46%

Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Paul Nuttall Tim Farron The Government

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF UKIP /LEADER OF THE LIBERAL

DEMOCRATS ?


Base: 1,132 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th January 2017 . Paul Nuttall and Tim Farron were asked on a split sample 565 and 567 British adults 18+

respectively. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

36%

56%

8%

45%

39%

16%26%

61%

13%

-4.5%swing from December

2016


2016


2016


2016


2016

+6 Net -35 Net -18 Net -10 Net -20 NetSATISFIED 45% SATISFIED 26% SATISFIED 18% SATISFIED 23% SATISFIED 36%

DISSATISFIED 39% DISSATISFIED 61% DISSATISFIED 36% DISSATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 56%

23%

33%

45%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Jan 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

l 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

MAY CORBYN FARRON NUTTALL

45%

26%23%

18%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?


Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

May


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …

PARTY?


Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2017)

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

Net

sati

sfact

ion

HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,132 British adults 18+, 13th – 17th January 2017

Theresa May (satisfaction)

45%

39%

16%

January 2017 August 2016 – January 2017

SATISFIED 45%

DISSATISFIED 39%

DON’T KNOW 8%

Net = +6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 385 Conservative supporters 18+ +, 13th – 17th January 2017

Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters

78%

14%

9%

January 2017

SATISFIED 78%

DISSATISFIED 14%

DON’T KNOW 9%

Net = +64

August 2016 – January 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


26%

61%

16%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

SATISFIED 26%

DISSATISFIED 61%

DON’T KNOW 13%

Net = -35

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,132 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

January 2017 September 2015 – January 2017

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


42%

48%

10%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

SATISFIED 42%

DISSATISFIED 48%

DON’T KNOW 12%

Net = -6

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 280 Labour supporters 18+, 13th – 17th January 2017

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


23%

33%

45%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

SATISFIED 23%

DISSATISFIED 33%

DON’T KNOW 45%

Net = -10

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 567 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017

Tim Farron (satisfaction)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PAUL NUTTALL IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

UKIP, THE UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 565 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017

Paul Nuttall(satisfaction)

December 2016

18%

35%

47%

SATISFIED 18%

DISSATISFIED 35%

DON’T KNOW 47%

Net = -17

January 2017

18%

36%

46%

SATISFIED 18%

DISSATISFIED 36%

DON’T KNOW 46%

Net = -18


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


27%

21%

47%

4%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jun

-04

Dec-

04

Jun

-05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Ap

r-07

Oct

-07

May-0

8

No

v-0

8

May-0

9

No

v-0

9

May-1

0

Dec-

10

Jun

-11

Dec-

11

Jun

-12

Dec-

12

Jun

-13

Dec-

13

Jun

-14

Dec-

14

Jun

-15

Jan

-16

Jul-

16

Jan

-17

IMPROVE 27%

STAY THE SAME 21%

GET WORSE 47%

DON’T KNOW 4%

EOI = -20

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism Index

January 2017


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

May 1

997

Sep

1997

Jan

1998

May 1

998

Sep

1998

Jan

1999

May 1

999

Sep

1999

Jan

2000

May 2

000

Sep

2000

Jan

2001

May 2

001

Sep

2001

Jan

2002

May 2

002

Sep

2002

Jan

2003

May 2

003

Sep

2003

Jan

2004

May 2

004

Sep

2004

Jan

2005

May 2

005

Sep

2005

Jan

2006

May 2

006

Sep

2006

Jan

2007

May 2

007

Sep

2007

Jan

2008

May 2

008

Sep

2008

Jan

2009

May 2

009

Sep

2009

Jan

2010

May 2

010

Sep

2010

Jan

2011

May 2

011

Sep

2011

Jan

2012

May 2

012

Sep

2012

Jan

2013

May 2

013

Sep

2013

Jan

2014

May 2

014

Sep

2014

Jan

2015

May 2

015

Sep

2015

Jan

2016

May 2

016

Sep

2016

Jan

2017

-20


Brexit


45%

44%

39%

42%

AND AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ON WHAT BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE

EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD BE AFTER IT LEAVES. SOME SAY BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO

THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET WHILE OTHERS THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER

IMMIGRATION. WHAT DO YOU THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016; 1,132 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017

Should Britain prioritise single market access or control of

immigration in its future relationship with the EU?

BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS

TO THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET

BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL

OVER IMMIGRATION

Jan 2017

Oct 2016


Trade unions


I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME STATEMENTS RELATING TO TRADE UNIONS. FOR EACH ONE,

PLEASE TELL ME, HOW STRONGLY YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH IT


Attitudes to trade unions

44%

18%

12%

24%

33%

18%

13%

24%

7%

26%

27%

17%

5%

19%

29%

13%

Trade unions are essential to protect workers'

interests

Trade unions have too much power in Britain

today

Most trade unions are controlled by extremists

and militants

The Labour Party should not be so closely

linked to the trade unions

STRONGLY AGREE TEND TO AGREE TEND TO DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREE


I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME STATEMENTS RELATING TO TRADE UNIONS. FOR EACH ONE,

PLEASE TELL ME, HOW STRONGLY YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH IT


Attitudes to trade unions 1975-2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Oct

-75

Jul-

76

Ap

r-77

Jan

-78

Oct

-78

Jul-

79

Ap

r-80

Jan

-81

Oct

-81

Jul-

82

Ap

r-83

Jan

-84

Oct

-84

Jul-

85

Ap

r-86

Jan

-87

Oct

-87

Jul-

88

Ap

r-89

Jan

-90

Oct

-90

Jul-

91

Ap

r-92

Jan

-93

Oct

-93

Jul-

94

Ap

r-95

Jan

-96

Oct

-96

Jul-

97

Ap

r-98

Jan

-99

Oct

-99

Jul-

00

Ap

r-01

Jan

-02

Oct

-02

Jul-

03

Ap

r-04

Jan

-05

Oct

-05

Jul-

06

Ap

r-07

Jan

-08

Oct

-08

Jul-

09

Ap

r-10

Jan

-11

Oct

-11

Jul-

12

Ap

r-13

Jan

-14

Oct

-14

Jul-

15

Ap

r-16

Jan

-17

% who Agree

TRADE UNIONS ARE

ESSENTIAL TO PROTECT

WORKERS' INTERESTS

TRADE UNIONS HAVE TOO

MUCH POWER IN BRITAIN

TODAY

MOST TRADE UNIONS ARE

CONTROLLED BY EXTREMISTS

AND MILITANTS

THE LABOUR PARTY SHOULD

NOT BE SO CLOSELY LINKED

TO THE TRADE UNIONS

Political Monitor | January 2017 | FINAL | Public | 24

As you may know, most workers in Britain have a legal right to go on strike, but this does not apply to some jobs such as the Police and the Armed Forces. Some people have called for more action to be done to reduce industrial strikes on essential services such as rail and the NHS. Others say it is important that these workers have the same rights to strike as does any other industry, even if that means sometimes these services are disrupted.

For each of the following, please tell me whether you think that people working in this service should have their right to strike limited, or should they be able to strike as any other industry.

Right to strike SHOULD HAVE THEIR RIGHT TO STRIKE

LIMITED

SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRIKE AS ANY

OTHER INDUSTRY

Base: 1,132 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017

48%

37%

35%

49%

61%

62%

NHS medical workers,

e.g. doctors and nurses

Train drivers

School teachers

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

25

January 2017POLITICAL MONITOR

Documents

Ipsos MORI January 2017 Political Monitor Charts1,016 British adults 18+, 14th –17th October 2016; 1,132 British adults 18+, +, 13th –17th January 2017 Source: Ipsos MORI Political