Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - May 2016 - ChartsBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14 – th16 May 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitorth Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction) May 2016 September

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1

Ipsos MORI MAY 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2

VOTING

INTENTIONS

3 Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May2016; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote

in General Elections = 725. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this

is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.

Voting Intention

34%

38%

10%

5%

7% 6%

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -4 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +2

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

36%

34%

10%

5%

8% 7%


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


22%

33%

45% 36%

41%

23%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF

UKIP?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May2016 When asked about Nigel Farage and Tim Farron the sample was split sampled with 483 and 519 British

adults 18+ asked about each respectively. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

30%

62%

8%

-5.5% swing from April 2016

-7% swing from April 2016

+0.5% swing from April 2016

-1.5% swing from April 2016

-3% swing from April 2016

-30 Net -19 Net -5 Net -11 Net -32 Net

SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 36% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 30%

DISSATISFIED 61% DISSATISFIED 50% DISSATISFIED 41% DISSATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 62%

31%

61%

8%

31%

50%

18%

David Cameron Jeremy Corbyn Nigel Farage Tim Farron The Government


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS

JOB AS … ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

Satisfaction with Party leaders May 2010 – May ’16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010

2010

2010

2010

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2014

2014

2014

2014

2014

2014

2015

2015

2015

2015

2015

2015

2016

2016

2016

CAMERON FARAGE CORBYN FARRON

31%

36%

31%

22%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?


Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …

PARTY?


Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2015)


Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

Net

sati

sfact

ion

HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY / AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016

David Cameron (satisfaction)

31%

61%

8%

May 2016 May 2006 –May 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May-0

6Ju

l-06

Sep

-06

No

v-0

6A

pr-

07

Jun

-07

Au

g-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-0

8M

ar-

08

May-0

8Ju

l-08

Sep

-08

No

v-0

8Ja

n-0

9M

ar-

09

May-0

9Ju

l-09

Sep

-09

No

v-0

9Ja

n-1

0M

ar-

10

May-1

0Ju

l-10

Oct

-10

Dec-

10

Feb

-11

Ap

r-11

Jun

-11

Au

g-1

1O

ct-1

1D

ec-

11

Feb

-12

Ap

r-12

Jun

-12

Au

g-1

2O

ct-1

2D

ec-

12

Feb

-13

Ap

r-13

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

3O

ct-1

3D

ec-

13

Feb

-14

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4O

ct-1

4D

ec-

14

Feb

-15

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5Ja

n-1

6M

ar-

16

May-1

6


SATISFIED 31%

DISSATISFIED 61%

DON’T KNOW 8%

Net = -30

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


66%

27%

8%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 275 Conservative supporters 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)

May 2016 May 2006 –May 2016


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

May 0

6Ju

l 06

Oct

06

Jan

07

May 0

7Ju

l 07

Sep

07

Dec

07

Feb

08

Ap

r 08

Jun

08

Au

g 0

8O

ct-0

8D

ec-

08

Feb

-09

Ap

r-09

Jun

-09

Au

g-0

9O

ct-0

9D

ec-

09

Feb

-10

Ap

r-10

Jun

-10

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

Mar-

11

May-1

1Ju

l-11

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1Ja

n-1

2M

ar-

12

May-1

2Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2Ja

n-1

3M

ar-

13

May-1

3Ju

l-13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3Ja

n-1

4M

ar-

14

May-1

4Ju

l-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4Ja

n-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

SATISFIED 66%

DISSATISFIED 27%

DON’T KNOW 8%

Net = +39

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


31%

50%

18%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

SATISFIED 31%

DISSATISFIED 50%

DON’T KNOW 18%

Net = -19

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?


Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

May 2016 September 2015 – May 2016


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


56% 31%

14%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

SATISFIED 56%

DISSATISFIED 31%

DON’T KNOW 14%

Net = +25

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 336 Labour supporters 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


22%

33%

45%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

SATISFIED 22%

DISSATISFIED 33%

DON’T KNOW 45%

Net = -11

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 483 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May2016

Tim Farron (satisfaction)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


36%

41%

23%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mar-

13

Ap

r-13

May-1

3Ju

n-1

3Ju

l-13

Au

g-1

3Sep

-13

Oct

-13

No

v-1

3D

ec-

13

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar-

14

Ap

r-14

May-1

4Ju

n-1

4Ju

l-14

Au

g-1

4Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4D

ec-

14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar-

15

Ap

r-152

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5D

ec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6M

ay-1

6

SATISFIED 36%

DISSATISFIED 41%

DON’T KNOW 23%

Net = -5

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 519 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)

May 2016 March 2013 – May 2016

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


18%

31% 38%

12%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan

-04

Ap

r-04

Jul-

04

Oct

-04

Jan

-05

Ap

r-05

Jul-

05

Oct

-05

Feb

-06

May-0

6Sep

-06

Dec-

06

May-0

7A

ug

-07

Dec-

07

Mar-

08

Jun

-08

Sep

-08

Dec-

08

Mar-

09

Jun

-09

Sep

-09

Dec-

09

Mar-

10

Jun

-10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

117

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-152

Jul-

15

No

v-1

5Feb

-16

May-1

6

IMPROVE 18%

STAY THE SAME 31%

GET WORSE 38%

DON’T KNOW 12%

EOI = -20

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism Index

May 2016


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

May 1

998

Sep

1998

Jan

1999

May 1

999

Sep

1999

Jan

2000

May 2

000

Sep

2000

Jan

2001

May 2

001

Sep

2001

Jan

2002

May 2

002

Sep

2002

Jan

2003

May 2

003

Sep

2003

Jan

2004

May 2

004

Sep

2004

Jan

2005

May 2

005

Sep

2005

Jan

2006

May 2

006

Sep

2006

Jan

2007

May 2

007

Sep

2007

Jan

2008

May 2

008

Sep

2008

Jan

2009

May 2

009

Sep

2009

Jan

2010

May 2

010

Sep

2010

Jan

2011

May 2

011

Sep

2011

Jan

2012

May 2

012

Sep

2012

Jan

2013

May 2

013

Sep

2013

Jan

2014

May 2

014

Sep

2014

Jan

2015

May 2

015

Sep

2015

Jan

2016

May 2

016

-20


EUROPE


55% 37%

5% 3% *%

48%

35%

14% 3%

*%

QA) ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION QA/B COMBINED) ALL GIVING A VOTING

INTENTION

QA) AS YOU MAY KNOW THE UNITED KINGDOM WILL HAVE A REFERENDUM ON ITS MEMBERSHIP OF

THE EUROPEAN UNION ON THE 23RD OF JUNE THIS YEAR. HOW WILL YOU VOTE ON THE QUESTION –

SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE

EUROPEAN UNION?


European Referendum voting intention

REMAIN

LEAVE

UNDECIDED

WOULD NOT VOTE

REFUSED

QB) TO ALL UNDECIDED/REFUSED) WHICH WAY WOULD YOU BE MOST INCLINED TO VOTE?


HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN / LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION OR IS

THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: All expressing an opinion on how they will vote 926 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016

Have the EU referendum voters decided yet?

57% 58% 63% 64%

69% 73%

40% 39% 35% 33%

28% 25%

3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Oct

2015

No

v

2015

Dec

2015

Jan

2016

Feb

2016

Mar

2016

Ap

r

2016

May

2016

DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW


8

10

8

8

6

5

9

7

7

5

8

9

11

11

14

27

32

13

7

5

6

6

6

7

7

7

7

8

9

9

10

15

28

33

Don’t know

Nothing/none

Regulations by the European Union on British businesses

The impact on British national security

The ability to travel in the European Union

Britain’s status in the world

Cost of EU membership fees

Britain’s relationship with other countries

The number of refugees coming to Britain to claim asylum

Impact on public services/housing

The impact on the rights of British workers

The cost of EU immigration on Britain’s welfare system

The impact on British jobs

Britain’s ability to trade with countries in the European Union

Britain’s ability to make its own laws

The number of immigrants coming into Britain

The impact on Britain’s economy

May-16

Apr-16

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION ON JUNE 23RD, WHICH,

IF ANY, ISSUES DO YOU THINK WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU DECIDE WHICH WAY TO VOTE?

AND WHICH OF THESE ISSUES, IF ANY, THAT YOU MENTIONED IS THE MOST IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU

DECIDE WHICH WAY TO VOTE?


Issues important to EU voting

Unprompted – top responses only


IF BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE

BETTER OR WORSE FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, OR WOULD IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,002 British adults, aged 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016

Impact of Brexit on economy and standard of living

18

39

26

46

11

15

29

35

49

7

16

9

Your own standard of living

Britain's economy over the next ten to twenty years

Britain's economy over the next five years

BETTER

MAKES NO

DIFFERENCE WORSE DON’T KNOW


IF BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE

BETTER OR WORSE FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, OR WOULD IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,002 British adults, aged 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016

Impact of Brexit on other issues

59

19

29

32

15

32

31

34

20

43

34

26

7

7

8

8

Britain's ability to make decisions in its own best interests

Britain's influence in the world

Britain's national security

Brtain's public services

BETTER

MAKES NO

DIFFERENCE WORSE DON’T KNOW


HALF SAMPLE SHOWN: THE PRIME MINISTER, DAVID CAMERON, RECENTLY GAVE A SPEECH SAYING THAT A VOTE TO LEAVE THE

EUROPEAN UNION MIGHT PUT AT RISK THE PEACE AND STABILITY OF EUROPE. HOWEVER, BORIS JOHNSON, THE FORMER MAYOR

OF LONDON, HAS SAID THIS IS NOT A POWERFUL ARGUMENT, AND THAT PEACE IN EUROPE IS DOWN TO NATO.

IF BRITAIN LEAVES THE EU, DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR PEACE AND STABILITY IN

EUROPE, OR WOULD IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: bases on chart, 14th – 16th May 2016

Peace and stability after Brexit

2% 3%

58%

16%

15%

6%

A LOT BETTER A LITTLE BETTER

MAKES NO

DIFFERENCE A LITTLE WORSE A LOT WORSE DON’T KNOW

4% 4%

55%

20%

14% 3%

With introduction (483) Without introduction (519)


WHICH TWO OR THREE OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU BELIEVE HAVE MOST IMPACT ON PEOPLE'S

EVERYDAY LIVES?


Impact of different layers of government in everyday life

3

3

5

20

26

29

55

62

Don’t know

National Assembly for Wales

Scottish Parliament

Civil service

European Union

Westminster Parliament

The Government

Local councils


THE ECONOMY


SINCE IT WAS ELECTED LAST YEAR, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A

BAD JOB AT MANAGING THE ECONOMY?


Government’s Management of the Economy

56% 37%

7%

GOOD JOB BAD JOB DON’T KNOW

March 2015 May 2016

42%

47%

11%


OPPOSITION READY FOR

GOVERNMENT


DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT…


Are Labour and Jeremy Corbyn ready for government?

3

10

12

13

14

12

19

14

7

5

7

5

32

19

24

22

37

46

33

41

7

7

5

6

STRONGLY AGREE TEND TO AGREE NEITHER TEND TO DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREE DON’T KNOW

Labour is ready to form

the next government

May ‘16

Jeremy Corbyn is ready

to be Prime Minister

May ‘16

Labour is ready to form the

next government

May ‘11

Ed Miliband is ready to be

Prime Minister

May ‘11

%

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

30

May 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

Documents

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - May 2016 - ChartsBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14 – th16 May 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitorth Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction) May 2016 September