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Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
1
Ipsos MORIJune 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2
SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND
PARTY LEADERS
3Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
19%
32%
49%38%
44%
17%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF
UKIP?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016 When asked about Nigel Farage and Tim Farron the sample was split sampled with 634 and 623
British adults 18+ asked about each respectively. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
32%
59%
9%
+3.5%swing from May 2016
-3%swing from May 2016
-0.5%swing from May 2016
-1%swing from May 2016
+2.5%swing from May 2016
-23 Net -25 Net -6 Net -13 Net -27 Net
SATISFIED 35% SATISFIED 27% SATISFIED 38% SATISFIED 19% SATISFIED 32%
DISSATISFIED 58% DISSATISFIED 52% DISSATISFIED 44% DISSATISFIED 32% DISSATISFIED 59%
35%
58%
7%
27%
52%
21%
David Cameron Jeremy Corbyn Nigel Farage Tim Farron The Government
4Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS
JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Satisfaction with Party leaders May 2010 – June’16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
CAMERON FARAGE CORBYN FARRON
35%
38%
27%
19%
5Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Net
sati
sfact
ion
NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
6Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …
PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2016)
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Net
sati
sfact
ion
HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)
7Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY / AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016
David Cameron (satisfaction)
35%
58%
7%
June 2016 May 2006 –June 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May-0
6
Oct
-06
Jun
-07
Dec-
07
May-0
8
Oct
-08
Mar-
09
Au
g-0
9
Jan
-10
Jun
-10
Dec-
10
May-1
1
Oct
-11
Mar-
12
Au
g-1
2
Jan
-13
Jun
-13
No
v-1
3
Ap
r-14
Sep
-14
Feb
-15
Jul-
15
Jan
-16
Jun
-16
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 35%
DISSATISFIED 58%
DON’T KNOW 7%
Net = -23
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
8Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
69%
27%
5%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 354 Conservative supporters 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016
David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)
June 2016 May 2006 –June 2016
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
May 0
6Ju
l 06
Oct
06
Jan
07
May 0
7Ju
l 07
Sep
07
Dec
07
Feb
08
Ap
r 08
Jun
08
Au
g 0
8O
ct-0
8D
ec-
08
Feb
-09
Ap
r-09
Jun
-09
Au
g-0
9O
ct-0
9D
ec-
09
Feb
-10
Ap
r-10
Jun
-10
Sep
-10
Jan
-11
Mar-
11
May-1
1Ju
l-11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1Ja
n-1
2M
ar-
12
May-1
2Ju
l-12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2Ja
n-1
3M
ar-
13
May-1
3Ju
l-13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3Ja
n-1
4M
ar-
14
May-1
4Ju
l-14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4Ja
n-1
5M
ar-
15
Ap
r-15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Dec-
15
Feb
-16
Ap
r-16
Jun
-16
SATISFIED 69%
DISSATISFIED 27%
DON’T KNOW 5%
Net = +42
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
9Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
27%
52%
21%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
SATISFIED 27%
DISSATISFIED 52%
DON’T KNOW 21%
Net = -25
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
June 2016 September 2015 – June 2016
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
10Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
50%
35%
15%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
SATISFIED 50%
DISSATISFIED 35%
DON’T KNOW 15%
Net = +15
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 378 Labour supporters 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)
June 2016 September 2015 – June 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
11Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
19%
32%
49%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
SATISFIED 19%
DISSATISFIED 32%
DON’T KNOW 49%
Net = -13
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 623 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
June 2016 September 2015 – June 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
12Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
38%
44%
17%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar-
13
Ap
r-13
May-1
3Ju
n-1
3Ju
l-13
Au
g-1
3Sep
-13
Oct
-13
No
v-1
3D
ec-
13
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Mar-
14
Ap
r-14
May-1
4Ju
n-1
4Ju
l-14
Au
g-1
4Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4D
ec-
14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar-
15
Ap
r-152
Ap
r-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5D
ec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6M
ay-1
6Ju
n-1
6
SATISFIED 38%
DISSATISFIED 44%
DON’T KNOW 17%
Net = -6
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE
UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 634 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
May 2016 March 2013 – May 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 13
ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM
14Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
19%
31%29%
21%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
May-0
4
No
v-0
4
May-0
5
No
v-0
5
Jun
-06
Jan
-07
Sep
-07
Ap
r-08
Oct
-08
Ap
r-09
Oct
-09
Ap
r-10
No
v-1
0
May-1
1
No
v-1
1
May-1
2
No
v-1
2
May-1
3
No
v-1
3
May-1
4
No
v-1
4
Ap
r-15
Dec-
15
Jun
-16
IMPROVE 19%
STAY THE SAME 31%
GET WORSE 29%
DON’T KNOW 21%
EOI = -10
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016
Economic Optimism Index
June 2016
15Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jun
1998
Oct
1998
Feb
1999
Jun
1999
Oct
1999
Feb
2000
Jun
2000
Oct
2000
Feb
2001
Jun
2001
Oct
2001
Feb
2002
Jun
2002
Oct
2002
Feb
2003
Jun
2003
Oct
2003
Feb
2004
Jun
2004
Oct
2004
Feb
2005
Jun
2005
Oct
2005
Feb
2006
Jun
2006
Oct
2006
Feb
2007
Jun
2007
Oct
2007
Feb
2008
Jun
2008
Oct
2008
Feb
2009
Jun
2009
Oct
2009
Feb
2010
Jun
2010
Oct
2010
Feb
2011
Jun
2011
Oct
2011
Feb
2012
Jun
2012
Oct
2012
Feb
2013
Jun
2013
Oct
2013
Feb
2014
Jun
2014
Oct
2014
Feb
2015
Jun
2015
Oct
2015
Feb
2016
Jun
2016
-10
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 16
Party image
17Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
WHICH POLITICAL PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST TEAM OF LEADERS TO DEAL WITH THE
COUNTRY’S PROBLEMS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016
Which party has the best team of leaders?
43%
16%
4%2%
3%
16%
16%
January 2016 June 2016
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
LIB DEM
OTHER
NONE OF THESE
DON’T KNOW
36%
19%3%2%3%
19%
17%
18Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
WHICH POLITICAL PARTY DO YOU THINK IS MOST CLEAR AND UNITED ABOUT WHAT ITS POLICIES
SHOULD BE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016
Which party is the most clear and united?
January 2016 June 2016
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
33%
13%11%
5%
8%
15%
15%24%
13%
11%5%7%
24%
17%
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
19
June 2016POLITICAL MONITOR